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A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford!

Takeaway: Auto loans tightened in 3Q16 for the first since the survey broke out the category in 2Q11.

Editor’s Note: Looking to better understand why General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) auto sales came in light this week? Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials Analyst Josh Steiner and U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford! - ford

 

"Auto Loans:  With concerns rising over auto loans, especially in the subprime space, banks have begun to tighten standards for the first time since the Senior Loan Officer Survey introduced this category.  Although the introduction of the auto loan category post-dates the GFC, the implications of consumer credit tightening are fairly straightforward vis-à-vis the capacity for Main Street credit and consumption. On net, 8.1% of banks reported tightening standards for Auto loans."

 

A Disconcerting Trend In Auto Loans… Watch Out General Motors & Ford! - auto loans


The Hedge Fund Draft: Would You Select Stan Druckenmiller Or Janet Yellen?

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye's Keith McCullough and Darius Dale discuss a hypothetical "Hedge Fund Draft", who they would (and wouldn't) pick, and why.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


Capital Brief: Trump Turmoil... Is Time Running Out For The GOP?

Takeaway: Trump Trumoil; Continuing The Kahn Controversy; Time Running Out For Trump;

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Trump Turmoil... Is Time Running Out For The GOP? - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“Words without actions are the assassins of idealism.”

-Herbert Hoover

TRUMP TURMOIL

Donald Trump is losing support within Republican party - and his campaign - at a time when unity and consolidation should be a foregone conclusion. His refusal to back Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain is the latest salvo with no end in sight. Republicans are refusing to campaign with Trump and are denouncing him or even withdrawing their endorsements – with NY Congressman Richard Hanna being the first to announce that he’s throwing his weight behind Hillary Clinton.

 

To make matters worse, turmoil is the norm at Trump Towers these days with fresh news that senior campaign officials are either being fired or are beyond frustration with their candidate. Not a good time to reshuffle the decks with 96 days to go.

CONTINUING THE KAHN CONTROVERSY

We’re now entering day five of the Khan saga after Trump (and his son) let fly a series of comments about the Gold Star family of a fallen U.S. soldier whose father spoke out against him at the DNC. The rift is starting to take a toll on the Republican party just as they were feeling better about their chances to keep the Senate this fall. The sooner Trump moves off this issue (neither the Khan family nor the media should sit by the phone waiting for an apology), the sooner he and the party can address the elephant in the room - Republican unity.

TIME RUNNING OUT FOR TRUMP

Letting Trump be Trump worked for the Trump campaign in the Republican primaries and it even helped him make it through the convention with a decent bounce. Through each and every controversy his supporters have stood by him with abandon - but in reality, he will not win over Independents and undecideds growing his base and appealing to those outside the party without making some character changes. If he wants to win the general election, picking up these two voter groups has to be the top - if not only - priority. There’s no time left for Trump’s tirades and twitter tantrums.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

5 Charts: A Macro Market Check-up With Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough - World Market No 12.16.14 

 

In the charts below, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough analyzes the important happenings in macro markets this morning. 

 

1. Japan

 

2. Euro

 

3. Commodities

 

4. Oil

 

5. Gold 

 


Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink

Takeaway: So far in 2Q16, 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%.

Ex-Energy S&P 500 Earnings Still Stink - earnings 8 3

 

For Q2 Earnings Season to-date:

 

  1. 367 of 500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate y/y non-GAAP EPS decline of -4.0%
  2. 6 of 10 S&P 500 sectors have reported year-over-year EPS declines.
  3. 27 of the 367 companies that have reported are “Energy” companies – and no you can’t “ex-that-out”
  4. 79 of the 367 companies are called Financials, and their aggregate y/y EPS decline is -5.4% 

 

Bottom Line: The whole "ex-Energy earnings are great" narrative is as illusory as it is dishonest.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On

Obama's Affordable Care Act: Success Or Failure? It Depends What You're Grading It On - aca signing

This is an institutional research note written by Health Policy Sector Head Emily Evans on President Obama's Affordable Care Act. "As a jobs program, the ACA was a soaring success. As a health care reform effort, there was still much work to be done and the tools were there to finish the job," Evans writes. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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