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CHART OF THE DAY: China's $704,000,000,000 Debt Binge

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... 4. Chinese Debt: Credit growth and proclivity for malinvestment in China is well publicized but I still think loan growth in 1Q was underappreciated. New loan growth in China was a remarkable $704B in 1Q16. To put that in context, the ARRA Act of 2009 (i.e. Peak Crisis, U.S. Recession Stimulus Package) was just north of $800B. What did that buy them? – another lower cycle low in GDP for 1Q."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: China's $704,000,000,000 Debt Binge - CoD 4


Cartoon of the Day: Beta Bro

Cartoon of the Day: Beta Bro - Beta Bro cartoon 07.14.2016

 

We present to you "Beta Bro." The defender of mediocrity in the active management community and all things S&P 500 beta.


The BS Filter: BOJ Nonsense & Helicopter Money Speculation

Takeaway: Here's our take on some of today's top financial stories.

The BS Filter: BOJ Nonsense & Helicopter Money Speculation - Central banker cartoon 03.03.2015

THIS IS ALL GETTING RATHER SILLY...

 

The mainstream media continues to cite "back room" musings of conflicting Japanese officials and their views on helicopter money.

 

According to Reuters: "There is no chance Japan will resort to 'helicopter money' any time soon, government and central bank officials directly involved in policymaking told Reuters on the condition of anonymity."

 

Those unidentified Japanese goverment officials eagerly dismissed the notion of helicopter money. Below are a selection of their comments:

 

  • "Adopting helicopter money in the strict sense is impossible as it's prohibited by law," said one of the officials. "If it's about the BOJ buying huge amounts of bonds and the government deploying fiscal stimulus, we're already doing that."
  • "It's an illusion to think that a country can spend as much money as it wants, without having to pay it back," said another official on condition of anonymity.
  • "I haven't heard of any such discussions taking place in the Ministry of Finance," a third source said, adding that adopting helicopter money was "unthinkable."
  • Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Abe, told Reuters on Thursday Japan should not resort to helicopter money as it could lose control of inflation.
  • "Resorting to such a step would be sending a grave message to the international community" on Japan's fiscal management, he told Reuters on Thursday. "We need to think carefully about how markets will react if we even signal it as an option." -Masahiko Shibayama, another influential aide to Abe

 

The BS Filter: BOJ Nonsense & Helicopter Money Speculation - Kuroda cartoon 02.18.2015

 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports...

 

"Ben S. Bernanke, who met Japanese leaders in Tokyo this week, had floated the idea of perpetual bonds during earlier discussions in Washington with one of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s key advisers.

Etsuro Honda, who has emerged as a matchmaker for Abe in corralling foreign economic experts to offer policy guidance, said that during an hour-long discussion with Bernanke in April the former Federal Reserve chief warned there was a risk Japan at any time could return to deflation. He noted that helicopter money -- in which the government issues non-marketable perpetual bonds with no maturity date and the Bank of Japan directly buys them -- could work as the strongest tool to overcome deflation, according to Honda. Bernanke noted it was an option, he said.

 

Though Honda said he thought Japan was already engaged in a strategy that involved helicopter money, he wanted to convey the idea to Abe and asked Bernanke to meet with the premier in Japan. While this didn’t happen in the spring, Bernanke joined central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda over lunch this Monday and on Tuesday he attended a gathering with Abe and key officials, including Koichi Hamada, another influential economic adviser."

 

The BS Filter: BOJ Nonsense & Helicopter Money Speculation - Japan cartoon 08.10.2015

Whether you believe the rumors or not...

 

OUR TAKE: As Japan's moribund economy continues to flounder, what makes central planners so certain helicopter money will finally pull it out of stagnation? The BOJ is already firing up the monetary printing presses to the tune of ¥80 to ¥90 trillion a year. In other words, the best efforts of Japanese central planners continue to fail. None of this bodes well for Japan.


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Tick Tock | Jobless Claims: The Late Cycle, Recession Indicator

Takeaway: Claims have been sub-330k for 29 months, now just 16 months shy of the all-time duration record: 45 months set in the 1990s.

Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials analysts Josh Steiner and Jonathan Casteleyn. If you would like more info on how you can access our research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Tick Tock | Jobless Claims: The Late Cycle, Recession Indicator - jobslatecycle

 

While claims moved momentarily higher in early May, they have resumed a breakneck pace lower for now with the most recent week coming in at an impressively low 254k. However, the keyword here is "breakneck." While the labor market remains strong for now, the current level of claims seems unsustainable in the context of history.

 

The chart below shows that in the last three cycles claims have dropped below and remained below 330k for 24, 45, and 31 months (average: 33 months) before the economy entered recession in the last three cycles. With the current cycle in its 29th month below that level, we are 5 months past the minimum, 4 months shy of the 33-month average, and 16 months from the max.

 

With the market at all-time highs and the labor market classically late stage, we remain bearish.

Tick tock.

 

Tick Tock | Jobless Claims: The Late Cycle, Recession Indicator - lt job claims


Valeant Bankruptcy Risk Is Rising | $VRX

Takeaway: "The probability of a Valeant bankruptcy is high, and the probability that we see a sub-$20 stock over the next 12-months is even higher."

Valeant Bankruptcy Risk Is Rising | $VRX - Ackman cartoon 10.26.2015

 

In November, our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman wrote the research note: "VRX | Bear Case $20." The stock has plummeted since then -- down -75%.

 

Here's an exclusive update from Andrew Freedman:

 

"Our $20 “Bear Case” valuation was based on acquisition price of the assets less accumulated debt and assuming the assets perform on par with historical trends. Clearly the latter part of that assumption is no longer valid given the deterioration in the core business that is likely permanently impaired. With $18.6 billion of Goodwill on the balance sheet and the stock down 91.8% from its peak, the market is already telling us that Valeant overpaid for these assets. We are surprised that Valeant has yet to take a write-down to reflect this reality.

 

The probability of a Valeant bankruptcy is high, and the probability that we see a sub-$20 stock over the next 12-months is even higher. At this stage, it makes more sense to sell the company off in pieces, repay debt holders, give what is left over (if anything) to stockholders and call it quits."

 

Chart below is from March, 17 2016.

Valeant Bankruptcy Risk Is Rising | $VRX - z q

 

Valeant Bankruptcy Risk Is Rising | $VRX - 20160714 VRX Writedown

 

Tobin and Freedman have been laying out the short case for some time. Here's a video from earlier this year which largely predicted what's happened at Valeant, including the precipitous drop in VRX shares and "we would be surprised if Mike Pearson survives as CEO."

 

Click below to watch. It's instructive to understand what's to come. 

 

 

Additional updates worth reading from our Healthcare team:

 


My Thoughts On a ‘Heartbreaking’ Healthcare ‘Horror Story’

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show this week, Hedgeye Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin answers a “heartbreaking” question from a subscriber on the collapse of ACA exchanges and the impact it’s having on American families.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
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