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15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report

Takeaway: Non-farm payroll growth has been slowing since it peaked in February 2015.

Last month's jobs report (pre-Brexit) wasn't an "anomaly." It was part of #TheCycle's trend. 

 

15 Words Ahead Of The Jobs Report - nfp 7 7

#EMPLOYMENTSLOWING


Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks

Takeaway: Global bond yields continue to make all-time lows as equity markets get drubbed. Got #GrowthSlowing?

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - stocks. bear in the woods 01.06.2016

 

Don't believe the permabull stock market hype.

 

Take a look at global equity performance over the past year. It's been dismal.

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - equities 7 7

 

...but there's always a bull market somewhere. 

 

Have you been long the Long Bond (TLT)? That's been our Macro team's biggest call for well over a year now. It's worked out well for our subscribers The 10yr Treasury yield continues to fall with its global peers as growth continues to slow. And that's generated significant returns for investors.

 

Take a look below at a chart of 10yr yields around the world (indexed to 100 on 7/8/15).

 

Boom-Shaka-Laka: Bonds Shellacking Stocks - bond yields 7 7 16

 

In other words, the effervescent hope that equity markets are "so cheap you simply have to buy now" hasn't come true. 

 

We're sticking with "expensive" Long Bonds.


Capital Brief: The Bachelor - Trump Edition ... & Clinton Heads To Atlantic City

Takeaway: Clinton Heads Down The Shore; Trump Bump; The Bachelor – Trump Edition;

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: The Bachelor - Trump Edition ... & Clinton Heads To Atlantic City - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”

-Jimmy Carter

CLINTON HEADS DOWN THE SHORE

Not to gamble, but rather to bash Donald Trump in Atlantic City, NJ – the home of Trump’s many bankrupt casinos. Clinton hammered Trump’s promise to do for the nation what he did for his businesses – cautioning that it should be viewed as a warning, not an enticement. Trump’s legacy in Atlantic City is a rough one and Clinton made a killing. It includes four rounds of bankruptcy for the casinos he built there, costing workers, lenders, stockholders and contractors jobs and money. The verbal shots keep flying at the expense of falling credibility ratings for both – just sit back and enjoy the show.

TRUMP BUMP

For those of you keeping count, Trump raised $51 million in the five weeks through the end of June, collecting $26 million for his campaign and $25 million for the Republican party. Think back to just a few weeks ago when he had less than $1.3 million in the bank. The bump comes as a sign that his lagging fundraising efforts are finally starting to gain traction and should show Republicans on the Hill that he’s taking this more seriously and just in time for his meetings with them today.

THE BACHELOR - TRUMP EDITION

Trump’s veepstakes has resembled a reality tv show as of late - he’s spent this week (it’s not even over yet!) with a different prospect each day. Senators Joni Ernst (IA) and Bob Corker (TN), Governor Mike Pence (IN), and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich have all split time with Trump as he traveled throughout the East Coast (we’re betting Governor Chris Christie is feeling a bit spurned right now). Although Corker and Ernst have all but withdrawn from consideration, we still expect the final rose ceremony – his veep selection announcement – to be sometime next week ahead of the convention.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.37%

REPLAY | Healthcare Investor Q&A with Tom Tobin

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides. 

 Hedgeye Healthcare analysts gave a special investor preview of their upcoming Healthcare Themes presentation. Viewers asked our team questions during live Q&A.

 

Veteran Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and analyst Andrew Freedman gave a special preview of their upcoming Healthcare Themes call today. Don’t miss the key investing callouts and trends in healthcare as well as changes to their Best Ideas list (Tickers include ATHN, ILMN, HOLX, AHS, ZBH, MD, MDRX). 


*INVITE | EXPE Best Idea Long | Call Friday at 11am EDT

Takeaway: Time of the call is tomorrow July 8th at 11am EDT

The Hedgeye Internet & Media and Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure (GLL) teams will host a conference call tomorrow, July 8th at 11am EDT to present EXPE as a new Best Idea Long. 

KEY POINTS OF DISCUSSION

  1. IT’S LARGELY A COST STORY: EXPE’s effective EBITDA target is much lower than its stated guidance range after considering specific inorganic tailwinds.  EXPE could hit that target largely on the cost side alone through its strategy to cut redundant/duplicate costs, but it also has two big levers it can pull that could drive upside to its target; neither of which has received much attention.  In short, mgmt is largely in control here.
  2. PAY TO PLAY: The AWAY model transition presents a considerable near-term opportunity.  While there is some execution risk from pushback amongst AWAY’s current subs, we will detail why EXPE likely holds all the cards here.  Timing issue may curb the 2016 opportunity, but our analysis suggests that very small progress with the transition will go a long way toward proving out EXPE's EBITDA target and validating the bull-case narrative.  Once again, mgmt is largely in control here as well.
  3. THE END ISN’T NIGH: We suspect most outside of the sell-side are already bracing for softening travel trends.  Mgmt had already guided to decelerating room night growth through 2016 and cautioned of softening travel trends at a recent investor event, which was corroborated by the STR data that we’re all watching.  But there is another layer to the current travel trends that is going largely unnoticed.  Further, EXPE may currently be the OTA best positioned to weather any emerging global travel headwinds, which we will also discuss during our call.  

Attendance on this call is limited. Ping  for more information.


Call Today | Q3 2016 Macro Themes Conference Call (at 11:00AM ET)

TODAY at 11:00am ET we will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call. Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the THREE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO TRENDS we have identified for the quarter and the associated investment implications.

 

CLICK HERE to watch live.

Call Today | Q3 2016 Macro Themes Conference Call (at 11:00AM ET) - Slide1

 

Q3 2016 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW:

 

  • #ProfitCycle:  Embedded in the SPY’s lofty multiple are consensus estimates that forecast a return to positive earnings growth in Q2 and Q3, as well as a material ramp to near double-digit growth in Q4 – effectively implying Q1 was the end of the domestic corporate profit recession. Conversely, the confluence of our top-down and bottom-up analysis suggests earnings growth is likely to reach new lows in the Q2/Q3 timeframe. Moreover, earnings in over-owned sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Health Care are at risk of meaningful surprises to the downside due to the ongoing #LateCycle slowdown in consumption and employment growth.
  • #ConsumerCredit:  At the end of every economic expansion, the preponderance of investors have seemingly forgotten that #TheCycle actually does cycle. But as recent commentary from Synchrony Financial (SYF) and CarMax (KMX) has alluded to, the domestic consumer credit cycle has inflected to the downside and our work suggests said deterioration is likely to remain ongoing for at least the next few quarters. Moreover, this deterioration has wide-ranging implications for investors.
  • #EuropeImploding:  Brexit happened, but which other countries may leave the EU?  We’ll outline the countries that we believe have the largest political risk and quantify Europe’s cyclical and structural growth and inflation headwinds within our ongoing theme of #EuropeSlowing.  We’ll present why we believe fundamentals can fall further and why the Euro may hit new lows.

 

CALL DETAILS

  • Video Access:
  • Toll Free:
  • UK: 0
  • Confirmation Number: 13636284
  • Materials: HERE (available approximately one hour prior to the call)
  • Watch Live: HERE

 

As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to . Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the call shortly after it concludes.

 

Kind regards,

 

-The Hedgeye Macro Team


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