European Equities Still Stumbling, Brexit Or No Brexit

Takeaway: Italian equities are down -28% from last year's high despite the ECB's best efforts to arrest economic gravity.

European Equities Still Stumbling, Brexit Or No Brexit - Europe Japan cartoon 04.04.2016


"Unfortunately, post the Brexit vote, the world is going to have to keep reporting economic and profit cycle data," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes in a note sent to subscribers this morning. And unfortunately for Bulls that data has been continually poor.


Here's additional analysis from McCullough:


"EUROPE – seeing the weakest countries in European Equity markets get a jumpstart on selling this am with Italy leading losers -0.8%, taking its stock market crash to -28% from last year’s cycle high (Portugal -0.6%, Spain -0.4% both remain in crash mode too w/ European #GrowthSlowing no matter what the vote)"


Take a look at Italian stocks...


Italian equity markets continue to price-in reality, namely that the ECB's best efforts can't stanch the bleeding in Europe.


CHART OF THE DAY: What Unelected Fed Bureaucrats Continually Miss

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... When it comes to establishment economists, they don’t think in rate of change terms – they think about levels.


And that, for those of us who have evolved in this profession, is a damn shame. It’s not like 2nd derivatives (high-school math) are new. It’s not that people winning Nobel Prizes in Behavioral Economics should be epiphanies to these central-market planners either. What’s super sad about all of this is that no leader in either our established government or media holds these unelected people to account."


CHART OF THE DAY: What Unelected Fed Bureaucrats Continually Miss - 06.22.16 Chart

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Capital Brief: Trump Turnaround Part 4 ... & Clinton Courts Millennials

Takeaway: Clinton Courts Millennials; Trump Turnaround Part Four; Warren Warnings

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email


Capital Brief: Trump Turnaround Part 4 ... & Clinton Courts Millennials - JT   Potomac under 1 mb


“Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one.”

― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


Now that Hillary Clinton has sidelined Bernie Sanders, she’s making a play for some of his most diehard supporters - millennials. The first of many Sanders staffers joined Clinton’s camp with the main objective of corralling and converting college students. More importantly, though, are the ongoing talks between both campaigns regarding how to best deploy Sanders as a Clinton surrogate later this year.


Millennials rallied behind Sanders because they were inspired by his vision for change and political revolution. Clinton must determine where she too can foster change and promote those policies. For Clinton, targeting young voters is a critical element in unifying the part of the party’s base that turned out in record numbers to put Obama into the White House in ’08 and then again in ’12. Keep snapping those selfies, H.


One of Donald Trump’s first campaign hires, Corey Lewandowski, has departed amidst chaos in the Trump campaign following two particularly bad weeks. Firing your campaign manager five months out from Election Day is usually not the sign of a winning campaign. Trump needs to use this moment to change course and pivot away from the missteps and the resulting criticism his campaign has endured. He’ll likely pin the blame on Lewandowski and move on – hopefully for the Republican party - with a fresh approach.


With his recent decline in national polls, and Hillary Clinton’s barrage of attack ads, change is a must – but whether it will actually occur is the real question. Trump now finds himself in an even bigger rut, lacking staff, organization and most importantly money - he has less cash-on-hand than Ted Cruz - and he dropped out of the race six weeks ago.


Wall Street has a clear message for Clinton – don’t pick Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) as your veep if you want our money. Harsh, but true. Warren’s war on Wall Street has been one of the largest political battles any sector has withstood in recent years. She was the driving force behind the CFPB and wants to break up big banks - even the mere mention of her name draws groans from the pinstriped crowd. Clinton is flirting with the left in her courtship of Bernie Sanders’ supporters – which Wall Street can stomach – but if she goes at it with Warren, she can kiss those checks goodbye.

This Chart Flies In The Face Of Yellen's Fed Testimony

During testimony before Congress today, Fed head Janet Yellen said she saw a "loss of momentum, not a deterioration" in the jobs market. That's funny because the Fed chair's favorite economic indicator (the "Change in Labor Market Conditions Index") registered its lowest readings since June 2009 and has deteriorated now for the past five months.  


This Chart Flies In The Face Of Yellen's Fed Testimony - 06.10.16 EL


We've written before that employment growth is past peak and slowing. Nothing Janet Yellen said changes that today.


For additional analysis, watch Hedgeye U.S. macro analyst Christian Drake in the video below:


McCullough: The Most Consensus Macro Position Right Now May Surprise You

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses consensus positioning and explains why the S&P 500 is now the most overbought position in all of macro.


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