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CHART OF THE DAY: What Unelected Fed Bureaucrats Continually Miss

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... When it comes to establishment economists, they don’t think in rate of change terms – they think about levels.

 

And that, for those of us who have evolved in this profession, is a damn shame. It’s not like 2nd derivatives (high-school math) are new. It’s not that people winning Nobel Prizes in Behavioral Economics should be epiphanies to these central-market planners either. What’s super sad about all of this is that no leader in either our established government or media holds these unelected people to account."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: What Unelected Fed Bureaucrats Continually Miss - 06.22.16 Chart



Capital Brief: Trump Turnaround Part 4 ... & Clinton Courts Millennials

Takeaway: Clinton Courts Millennials; Trump Turnaround Part Four; Warren Warnings

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: Trump Turnaround Part 4 ... & Clinton Courts Millennials - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one.”

― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

CLINTON COURTS MILLENNIALS

Now that Hillary Clinton has sidelined Bernie Sanders, she’s making a play for some of his most diehard supporters - millennials. The first of many Sanders staffers joined Clinton’s camp with the main objective of corralling and converting college students. More importantly, though, are the ongoing talks between both campaigns regarding how to best deploy Sanders as a Clinton surrogate later this year.

 

Millennials rallied behind Sanders because they were inspired by his vision for change and political revolution. Clinton must determine where she too can foster change and promote those policies. For Clinton, targeting young voters is a critical element in unifying the part of the party’s base that turned out in record numbers to put Obama into the White House in ’08 and then again in ’12. Keep snapping those selfies, H.

TRUMP TURNAROUND PART FOUR?

One of Donald Trump’s first campaign hires, Corey Lewandowski, has departed amidst chaos in the Trump campaign following two particularly bad weeks. Firing your campaign manager five months out from Election Day is usually not the sign of a winning campaign. Trump needs to use this moment to change course and pivot away from the missteps and the resulting criticism his campaign has endured. He’ll likely pin the blame on Lewandowski and move on – hopefully for the Republican party - with a fresh approach.

 

With his recent decline in national polls, and Hillary Clinton’s barrage of attack ads, change is a must – but whether it will actually occur is the real question. Trump now finds himself in an even bigger rut, lacking staff, organization and most importantly money - he has less cash-on-hand than Ted Cruz - and he dropped out of the race six weeks ago.

WARREN WARNINGS

Wall Street has a clear message for Clinton – don’t pick Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) as your veep if you want our money. Harsh, but true. Warren’s war on Wall Street has been one of the largest political battles any sector has withstood in recent years. She was the driving force behind the CFPB and wants to break up big banks - even the mere mention of her name draws groans from the pinstriped crowd. Clinton is flirting with the left in her courtship of Bernie Sanders’ supporters – which Wall Street can stomach – but if she goes at it with Warren, she can kiss those checks goodbye.


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This Chart Flies In The Face Of Yellen's Fed Testimony

During testimony before Congress today, Fed head Janet Yellen said she saw a "loss of momentum, not a deterioration" in the jobs market. That's funny because the Fed chair's favorite economic indicator (the "Change in Labor Market Conditions Index") registered its lowest readings since June 2009 and has deteriorated now for the past five months.  

 

This Chart Flies In The Face Of Yellen's Fed Testimony - 06.10.16 EL

 

We've written before that employment growth is past peak and slowing. Nothing Janet Yellen said changes that today.

 

For additional analysis, watch Hedgeye U.S. macro analyst Christian Drake in the video below:

 


McCullough: The Most Consensus Macro Position Right Now May Surprise You

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses consensus positioning and explains why the S&P 500 is now the most overbought position in all of macro.


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 6 21

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 6 21

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 6 21

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 6 21

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 6 21


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