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REPLAY: Healthcare Q&A with Tom Tobin | $AHS $HCA $HOLX $MD $ZBH

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 

 

Our Healthcare analysts Tom Tobin and Andrew Freedman hosted a live Q&A earlier today to discuss their top ideas and the latest trends in the Healthcare space.

 

Topics include:

  • Employment, JOLTS and #ACATaper Update related to AHS, HCA, HOLX, MD and ZBH
  • ATHN Tracker Update and Latest Thoughts

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 6 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 6 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 6 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 6 16

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 6 16


About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe & Tom Tobin: Demographic Warning Shots Fired In America

watch the replay below

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe explores the troubling rise in the U.S. mortality rate that's coincided with declining fertility rates. Howe walks through the myriad demographic and social trends which have conspired to cause this development.

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

Click here to access the associated slides.


Attention Students...

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[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges

We've made some new enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to view a brief video of McCullough explaining how to use it most effectively.

 

Subscribers now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five of which are determined by what's flashing on Keith's screen and by what names subscribers are asking about. Click here to subscribe.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.67 1.53 1.60
SPX
S&P 500
2,055 2,095 2,071
RUT
Russell 2000
1,136 1,167 1,149
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
4,801 4,904 4,834
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
15,303 16,321 15,919
DAX
German DAX Composite
9,391 9,907 9,606
VIX
Volatility Index
16.70 22.65 20.15
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.23 95.22 94.66
EURUSD
Euro
1.11 1.14 1.12
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
104.01 107.79 105.98
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
47.01 49.67 47.98
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.25 2.63 2.59
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,266 1,311 1,294
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.00 2.10 2.09
AAPL
Apple Inc.
96.05 99.98 97.14
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
701 731 714
MCD
McDonald's Inc.
121 124 122
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
91.30 98.04 94.29
MSFT
Microsoft Inc.
49.09 51.60 49.69
NKE
Nike Inc.
53.02 55.36 54.31


The Macro Show with Keith McCullough and Neil Howe Replay | June 16, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 

An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.


Long-Term Bond Bull

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

They’re really out on the central banking #BeliefSystem in Japan – on the heels of reiterating 80T (T = Trillion Yen), the Yen ramped +1.7% (vs USD) to yet another YTD high, and the Nikkei continued to crash, -3.1% overnight (-7.2% on the week) and -26.1% from last year’s cycle peak in Global Equities (July).

GOLD

Oh the love - Gold is a currency and it’s got more momentum now than any currency in the world, charging to new YTD highs (+1.2% this morning to +23.1% YTD) of $1307/oz as German 10s drop back to negative this morning and U.S. 10s tick below Spanish 10s for the 1st time at 1.55% vs. 1.60%, respectively (Gold doesn’t have a yield, but it doesn’t have a negative one either).

S&P 500

In at 2,068 and out at 2,083? Yep. Not only does that beat the return you’d have had buying the S&P 500 1yearr ago today (it’s -1.18% vs. June 16, 2015 as #TheCycle was peaking), do you think we really trusted being net long after seeing another #Recession print on U.S. Industrial Production of -1.4% year-over-year yesterday? Do you think we trust the Fed’s #BeliefSystem?

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
6/15/16 64% 6% 0% 6% 18% 6%
6/16/16 66% 2% 0% 8% 20% 4%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
6/15/16 64% 18% 0% 18% 55% 18%
6/16/16 66% 6% 0% 24% 61% 12%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
TLT

No matter what side of the reflation/deflation trade you’re on, the growth in global demand continues to decelerate on a trending basis. The debate is no longer whether or not growth is slowing. The real debate centers on the policy response and the market reaction to that policy response. While that question presents us with “open the envelope” risk, #GrowthSlowing will continue to be the bull catalyst for U.S. Treasuries whatever the policy response as the slow march to zero yields globally goes on. 

GLD

To sum things up, stay away from the guessing game and stick to what is empirically evident. A stronger USD over the longer term is a probable scenario in our book. We expect the Fed, and all central banks for that matter, will try to combat deflation. That said, global currencies all burning at the same time makes a compelling case for GLD, as gold knows no currency. You can sell it in local currency all over the world. Scary but true.

MCD

There have been rumblings in the news that McDonald's (MCD) 2Q comps have slowed due to the temporary replacement of the 2 for $5 value platform for Monopoly. This has clearly been reflected in the stock as of late, as MCD has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last month.

 

Despite this near term headwind, we still strongly believe in the long-term story for MCD and remain confident that once they get their value platform right nationally, they will be just fine. In the short to intermediate term, as we wait for a solidified value platform, this recent underperformance represents a great buying opportunity. We remain LONG MCD.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

VIDEO (3mins) My Response To Yesterday’s Fed Statement (I'm out) https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/51712-mccullough-my-response-to-today-s-fed-statement … via @hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Know thyself means this, that you get acquainted with what you know, and what you can do.

Menander

STAT OF THE DAY

According to a new poll from Bloomberg Politics, 63% of women said they could never vote for Donald Trump.


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