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This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. LOST (6/10/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed cartoon 06.10.2016

 

What can we expect from the FOMC next week?

 

"Remember that projecting an air of confidence and maintaining maximum policy optionality requires carefully treading the hawkishly dovish messaging line … or maybe it’s the dovishly hawkish line," Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake wrote in today's Early Look.

 

In other words, if you're hoping for clarity, don't hold your breath. There's more nonsensical Fed-speak to come.

 

2. Drinking The Kool-Aid? (6/9/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - central bank kool aid 06.09.2016

 

Did you drink the central planning Kool-Aid?

 

3. Squirrelly (6/8/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

 

This one speaks for itself.

 

4. Sobriety Checkpoint Ahead (6/7/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Yellen cart 06.07.2016

 

FYI: The Yellen Fed isn't "data dependent." It's S&P 500 dependent.

 

5. Yellen & Screamin' (6/6/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Hawk dove cartoon 06.06.2016

 

The mercurial Fed has pivoted from Hawkish (in December) to Dovish (March/April) to Hawkish (May). With today's speech, market consensus now perceives Yellen & Co. as flipping back to Dovish here in June. Clearly, the Fed is perpetuating a massive amount of volatility in macro markets.


Investing Ideas Newsletter

Takeaway: Current Investing Ideas: DNKN, HOLX, DE, HBI, LAZ, MDRX, FL, NUS, JNK, TIF, WAB, ZBH, GLD, MCD, TLT

Investing Ideas Newsletter - central bank kool aid 06.09.2016

 

Below are our analysts’ new updates on our fifteen current high conviction long and short ideas. As a reminder, if nothing material has changed in the past week which would affect a particular idea, our analyst has noted this.

 

Please note that we added Dunkin' Brands (DNKN) to the short side of Investing Ideas this week. Restaurants analyst Howard Penney will send out a full stock report on DNKN next week. We will send CEO Keith McCullough’s updated levels for each ticker in a separate email.

TLT | GLD | JNK

To view our analyst's original report on Junk Bonds click here and here for Gold.

 

It was an excellent week for our Macro team's #GrowthSlowing call. Long Bonds (TLT) led the charge up +6.4% with Gold (GLD) up +2.4% versus a flat week for the S&P 500.

 

No matter what side of the reflation/deflation trade you’re on, the growth in global demand continues to decelerate on a trending basis. The debate is no longer whether or not growth is slowing. The real debate centers on the policy response and the market reaction to that policy response. While that question presents us with “open the envelope” risk, #GrowthSlowing will continue to be the bull catalyst for U.S. Treasuries whatever the policy response as the slow march to zero yields globally goes on. Remember:

 

Central planners can’t print growth.

 

Only 35% of country and regional PMI figures across manufacturing, services and composite readings are both expanding (i.e. > 50) and accelerating sequentially as of last month. The rest are either expanding but decelerating or in outright contraction (i.e. < 50). The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI Index in the chart below is a good birds-eye-view on the deceleration in broad-base PMI measures:

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - pmi

 

Hitting the demand slowdown on the consumption side of the domestic economy, we highly suggest watching the clip below from earlier this week. Macro analyst Christian Drake breaks down credit’s role in the consumption cycle when consumer spending starts to slow. Credit has the ability to pull forward spending, but when it too begins to roll, 69% of the economy starts tumble downward:

 

Click the image below to watch.

Investing Ideas Newsletter - credit

 

With the aforementioned evidence of continued economic contraction, we’re confident sticking with growth-slowing allocations (TLT) while waiting and watching on deflation/reflation exposure. As Keith McCullough outlined in Thursday’s Early Look:

 

“It was an easier call to make that growth would slow than it was that being right on #GrowthSlowing would get people to chase Reflation Charts that have been blowing investors up for 3 years. I don’t think of this as a mistake yet (this “bull” only started in MAR/APR). I’m actually thinking of it as an opportunity. While I haven’t been short Energy this year (we were last year with our #StrongDollar Deflation call), I haven’t been long it either.”

 

To sum things up, stay away from the guessing game and stick to what is empirically evident. A stronger USD over the longer term is a probable scenario in our book. We expect the Fed, and all central banks for that matter, will try to combat deflation. That said, global currencies all burning at the same time makes a compelling case for GLD, as gold knows no currency. You can sell it in local currency all over the world. Scary but true.

MCD

To view our analyst's original report on McDonald's click here

 

There have been rumblings in the news that McDonald's (MCD) 2Q comps have slowed due to the temporary replacement of the 2 for $5 value platform for Monopoly. This has clearly been reflected in the stock as of late, as MCD has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last month.

 

Despite this near term headwind, we still strongly believe in the long-term story for MCD and remain confident that once they get their value platform right nationally, they will be just fine. In the short to intermediate term, as we wait for a solidified value platform, this recent underperformance represents a great buying opportunity. We remain LONG MCD. 

WAB

To view our analyst's original report on Wabtec click here.

 

No update on Wabtech (WAB) this week but Hedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver reiterates his short call.

ZBH

To view our analyst's original report on Zimmer Biomet click here. Below is an update on ZBH from Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin.

 

We got the latest update to our #ACATaper thesis this week with the JOLTS report. Despite a slight sequential uptick in the absolute number of Healthcare Job Openings (1,015 April / 957 March), on a trending basis, growth was the slowest in 7 quarters with the 3-month YoY growth rate at +12.2%. JOLTS as a % of Healthcare Employment remains extended at +2.1 standard deviations, suggesting there is a lot more downside to go as the #ACATaper takes hold and the U.S. Medical Economy mean reverts. 

 

Of the thousands of macro and fundamental data series we track on a daily basis, Healthcare Job Openings (JOLTS), prove to have the most consistent and reliable relationship to utilization trends in the industry. 

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 20160610 JOLTS Slowing

 

We think the ACA increased volume temporarily in 2014 and 2015 for a host of Healthcare companies including hospitals, physician offices and orthopedic manufacturers. As we enter the late part of the economic cycle broadly and the inflated Healthcare caused by the ACA, we think Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) and its peers will be struggling with declining volume and increasing price pressure.

 

The chart below shows pent-up demand for Knee Replacement Surgery among newly insured from a Society of Actuaries Analysis of claims data in Kansas.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 20160610 PentUpDemandNewlyInsured

 

Quick Thoughts on LDR Acquisition

 

Earlier this week, Zimmer-Biomet announced the purchase of LDR (LDRH) for a total consideration of ~$1.0 billion, or 5.5x 2016 Sales. The transaction will be indirectly funded through issuance of $750 million of unsecured bonds expected to be priced and issued in 2H16. The LDR deal increases ZBH's market share in spine from 5% to 7%, but it will remain well behind competitors Medtronic at 31% and DePuy at 16%.

 

Spine is more favorably disposed from a demographic and payer mix perspective, but is also likely the next target for bundled payments. While ZBH needed to improve their Spine portfolio, we were surprised by the timing of the announcement so soon after closing Biomet and taking on ~$10 billion in debt to fund the deal. We also have a hard time understanding how the LDR is going to be neutral/accretive to earnings in 2017/2018 given the high price tag and management having no intention of reducing forecasted levels of investment.

HBI

To view our analyst's original report on Hanesbrands click here

 

One piece of the Hanesbrands (HBI) business model that is commonly misunderstood is how utilization impacts their margins, since they own about 2/3 of their own production. The chart below outlines the difference between owned manufacturing and outsourced manufacturing. The graph on the right shows your typical apparel/footwear company set-up, where goods are made by a third party. For every unit of demand, the increase in cash flow or profits is the same.

 

However, with owned manufacturing each incremental unit of demand comes with accelerated profits and cash flow because it can scale up units and leverage the fixed manufacturing costs. Right now HBI is operating at over 90% utilization, and therefore has peak profitability per demand unit. 

 

The problem now is that the leverage works both ways, so as demand drops, profits and cash flow decline at an accelerating rate. We believe demand is slowing and will continue to slow driven both by competition and macro factors. As this happens utilization will drop and margin and cash flow will decline rapidly. On that note, organic growth has been negative for 3 of the last 4 quarters.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 6 10 2016 HBI II

NUS

To view our analyst's original report on Nu Skin click here

 

No update on Nu Skin (NUS) this week but Hedgeye Consumer Staples analysts Howard Penney and Shayne Laidlaw reiterate their short call.

MDRX

To view our analyst's original report on Allscripts click here. Below is an excerpt from an institional research note on Allscripts (MDRX) written by our Healthcare team.

MDRX | HOME HEALTH BUSINESS

 

Takeaway: Allscripts did not invest resources into the Homecare product, which was old to begin with and resulted in competitive losses.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - mdrx

overview

We spoke with a former Allscripts Homecare Salesperson, who also spent many years working for Eclipsys as a Sunrise Rep prior to the merger. The purpose was to get a better understanding of Allscripts position in the Home Health market and rationale behind the Netsmart deal. Given chronic underinvestment and weak market prospects, we can see how the divestiture makes sense from a P&L perspective for core Allscripts. However, anecdotes suggest that current clients were not pleased with the news and we have a hard time grasping (absent additional investment) how the Homecare business is going to do much better under Netsmart's control.

 

"Last shoe has dropped and Netsmart has run away with the dish and the spoon... any sense of stability is now gone." - Large Allscripts Home Health Client

key takeaways

  • Allscripts did not invest resources into the Homecare product, which was old to begin with and resulted in competitive losses.
  • Homecare Homebase entered the market 5-years ago and began to take share from legacy vendors, especially Allscripts whose market share shrank from 13% in 2011 to 7% in 2015.
  • Allscripts is currently doing whatever it takes to win new Sunrise business... Cutting maintenance from 18-20% of system sale to 8-10%, maintenance holidays, excluding or limiting CPI adjustment.
  • Operational focus under Paul Black's leadership has come at the cost of product development and the sales organization.

TIF

To view our analyst's original report on Tiffany click here

  

We're nearly to the end of retail earnings season and it appears that Tiffany (TIF) will post the 2nd worst comparable store sales gain in all of retail at -9%. The only worse comp we have seen is Lumber Liquidators, which is still feeling the hangover from national news stories noting its product is full of carcinogenic Formaldehyde.

 

We find it hard to believe that Tiffany is trading at 17x earnings considering the following factors:

 

  • It put up one of the worst growth rates in the industry.
  • It is tracking to 2 consecutive years of high single-digit earnings declines with no clear plan to reverse the business trend.
  • We are still in the early stages of a consumer and economic slowdown, as global GDP estimates are being constantly revised downwards.

 

Ultimately, we believe the multiple will come down when the market realizes that the consensus expectation for a reacceleration in earnings growth to double digits in 2017 is not very likely to happen.

 

We remain short TIF stock.

LAZ

To view our analyst's original report on Lazard click here

 

No update on Lazard (LAZ) this week but Hedgeye Financials analyst Jonathan Casteleyn reiterates their short call.

FL 

To view our analyst's original report on Foot Locker click here.

 

The biggest near term threat to Foot Locker (FL) earnings and the stock is slowing comparable store sales. In 1Q16 comps slowed to 2.9% from 7.9% the prior quarter. At the same time, main banner e-commerce held relatively steady at about 20% after slowing from 40%+ in 1H15. Our traffic tracking showed a similar trend over the last year. The 2Q to date is showing a clear slowing from 1Q. 

 

The company noted on their conference call three weeks ago that total comps were running negative in the quarter-to-date, saying it was from a shifted Nike shoe launch. But since then we have not seen an improvement in online traffic, which has actually weakened slightly. This could mean more negative pressure on the Footlocker comps over the near term.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - 6 10 2016 FL II

DE 

To view our analyst's original report on Deere & Company click here.

 

Is the agricultural economy at trough?

 

If credit and debt trends are any indication, the answer is no. Farm debt is expanding, which is not a characteristic of an industry at trough. The reversal in farm credit metrics portends lower farmland values, higher credit losses, and lower farm spending.  

 

For Deere & Company (DE), credit trends are a critical valuation point since many investors place a high ‘trough’ multiple on the ~40% of net income from the captive finance subsidiary. We think investors are inappropriately extrapolating the benefits of a robust farm economy and gains in farmland values when evaluating DE’s finance subsidiary. Despite a recent flurry of optimism, we continue to see 30%-50% relative downside for shares of DE, with tightening credit as a key catalyst.

 

Investing Ideas Newsletter - de 6 10

HOLX

Click here to view our analyst's stock report on Hologic (HOLX).


Cartoon of the Day: LOST

Cartoon of the Day: LOST - Fed cartoon 06.10.2016

 

What can we expect from the FOMC next week?

 

"Remember that projecting an air of confidence and maintaining maximum policy optionality requires carefully treading the hawkishly dovish messaging line … or maybe it’s the dovishly hawkish line," Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake wrote in today's Early Look.

 

In other words, if you're hoping for clarity, don't hold your breath. There's more nonsensical Fed-speak to come.


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HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures

Takeaway: Coupled with rising volume in a choppy environment, the exchange group is self funding and thus has the lowest cost of capital in Financials

Coupled with a rare expansion in revenues and earnings in this environment, the exchanges strike industry leading margins on higher top line and thus tend to be self funding companies. This creates the lowest cost of capital in financial services, an important attribute as the economy sits late cycle/recession. For all other subgroups dependent on the capital markets for debt and equity capital, recessionary periods mark substantial increases in capital costs which are consternation for both management teams and investors. This group side steps that issue with higher incremental operating margins, low leverage, and thus lower funding costs.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - chart1

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - chart2

 

 

Weekly Activity Wrap Up

Futures put up healthy volume this week, coming in at 20.5 million contracts traded per day through CME and ISE, raising the 2Q16TD average daily volume (ADV) to 18.9 million, +7% higher than the year-ago quarter. Additionally, CME's open interest currently tallies 116.4 million contracts, +27% higher than the 91.3 million pending at the end of 2015. This compares to ICE's OI growth of just +7% YTD. Meanwhile, cash equity and options volume came in below their 2Q16TD quarterly averages, although the former still maintains good year-over-year volume growth. Cash equities came in at 6.5 billion shares per day, bringing the 2Q16TD ADV to 7.0 billion, +10% higher year-over-year. Options volume of 14.3 million dragged down the 2Q16TD ADV  to 15.1 million, -1% lower than the 2Q15 ADV. 

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon16 1

  

U.S. Cash Equity Detail

U.S. cash equities trading came in at 6.5 billion shares per day this week, bringing the 2Q16TD ADV to 7.0 billion. That marks +10% Y/Y growth. The market share battle for volume is mixed. The New York Stock Exchange/ICE is taking a 25% share of second-quarter volume, which is +93 bps higher Y/Y, while NASDAQ is taking a 17% share, -137 bps lower than one year ago.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon2

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon3

 

U.S. Options Detail

U.S. options activity came in at a 14.3 million ADV this week, bringing the 2Q16TD average to 15.1 million, a -1% Y/Y contraction. In the market share battle amongst venues, NYSE/ICE's 17% share of 2Q16TD volume is +31 bps higher than one year ago. Additionally, NASDAQ's 22% share is +25 bps higher year over year. BATS has also been taking share from the competing exchanges, up to an 11% share from 10% a year ago. Meanwhile, CBOE's 26% market share of 2Q16TD is down -107 bps Y/Y. Finally, ISE/Deutsche's 14% share is -152 bps lower than 2Q15.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon4

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon5

 

U.S. Futures Detail

15.4 million futures contracts per day traded through CME Group this week, bringing the 2Q16TD ADV to 14.4 million, +8% higher Y/Y. Additionally, CME open interest, the most important beacon of forward activity, currently sits at 116.4 million CME contracts pending, good for +27% growth over the 91.3 million pending at the end of 4Q15, an expansion from the previous week's +25%.

 

Contracts traded through ICE came in at 5.1 million per day this week, the highest weekly volume all quarter, bringing the 2Q16TD ADV to 4.5 million, a +5% Y/Y expansion. ICE open interest this week tallied 68.2 million contracts, a +7% expansion versus the 63.7 million contracts open at the end of 4Q15, an expansion from with the previous week's +5%.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon6

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon8

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon7

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon9 

 

Monthly Historical View

Monthly activity levels give a broader perspective of exchange based trends. As volatility levels, measured by the VIX, MOVE, and FX Vol should rise to normal levels after the drastic compression this cycle, we expect all marketplaces to experience higher activity levels.

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon10

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon11

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon12

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon13

 

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon14

HEDGEYE Exchange Tracker | Mind Your Exposures - ExMon15

 

 

Please let us know of any questions,

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

  

  

 

 Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

 

 

 


Capital Brief: No Money, Mo' Problems For Trump?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: No Money, Mo' Problems For Trump? - capital brief

NO MONEY, MO’ PROBLEMS:

Donald Trump’s finance team held its first official meeting amid concerns over the campaign’s lack of a finance team, infrastructure and coordination with the RNC with less than five months left to prepare for the general election. In most election cycles, fundraising for presidential campaigns starts 18 to 24 months out - and Trump will be at a disadvantage out of the gate given his continued controversies and general lack of enthusiasm among the Republican donor class leading many to question whether Trump can achieve his previously stated goal of raising $1 billion.

 

Donors are disturbed with the threadbare nature of his campaign which continues to struggle in carrying out even the most basic of functions. He lacks pollsters, data and field expertise, a policy-writing shop, and a communications apparatus - and will soon find that the general election is a different animal than the primary.

CLINTON’S CASH COW:

On the other hand, when it comes to fundraising, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats are running like a well-oiled machine. She’s spent well over $200 million, has a large campaign staff with seasoned veterans, and continues to pad her war chest every day. Additionally - with Clinton, well, being a Clinton - she enjoys a deep bench of supporters ready to fundraise, cut ads, hit the campaign trail, and utilize social media. When Bernie Sanders finally exits the race, she’ll look to tap into a deep reservoir of new (and smaller) donors padding her fundraising lead.

WARRENTED ENDORSEMENT:

In what may be an audition for the prototypical running mate, Elizabeth Warren launched another blistering attack on Donald Trump, the Republican party, and calls for Wall Street reform. Warren has been suggested as  Clinton’s veep choice by none other than Minority Leader Harry Reid, despite his warning on choosing a senator from a state with a Republican governor. The case for Warren is clear - she’s an outspoken populist-progressive leader who would rally the supporters of Bernie Sanders to Clinton’s cause.


Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX)

Takeaway: We added HOLX to Investing Ideas on the short side on 5/27.

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - hologic image chart

THE HEDGEYE EDGE 

We have a long history with Hologic (HOLX). Our first major call on the stock was being long and “looking for a double” in April 2014 when the stock was in the low-$20s.  At that time, our proprietary dataset that tracks the number of U.S. Facilities with a Hologic 3D Tomography machine and S-Curve adoption forecast model suggested a large acceleration in growth through 2015.

 

While there are other elements of Hologic’s business, historical regression analysis shows that forward multiple is most dependent on the growth rate in the Breast Health (42% of sales) business or 3D Tomography sales. Simply put, get Breast Health growth right and get the stock right.

 

Fortunately, our initial long calls was correct, but now we are on the other side and the same forecast methodology suggests growth has peaked, and new facility placements will likely turn negative into 2H17.

 

We will continue to provide updates to our proprietary #TOMOTRACKER that will inform us where we are on the adoption curve and act as a benchmark to test our thesis against.

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608 HOLX 3D SCurve

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM (TREND)

 

Over the intermediate term, we see little that can drive further upside to the stock, outside of an acquisition (which is a risk to our thesis). While we expect growth to continue to come under pressure, our call for -30% downside is likely to play out over the next 12-18 months. 

 

There are two key drivers that we expect will drive shares of Hologic (HOLX) back into the low-$20s.

 

1. Slowing 3D Tomo Adoption – Hologic stopped disclosing penetration for 3D mammography, providing the last unit counts and market share in September 2015. For the September 2015 period, the company disclosed 28% penetration into their installed base. Our s-curve for 3D indicates share was 32.4% as of 9/27/2015, which agrees with HOLX management statements.

 

However, based on our Tomo Tracker data, we believe HOLX has added to their 3D installed base and now sits at 40%. While the rapid pace of 3D conversion led to upside relative to consensus estimates and company guidance for much of 2014 and 2015, we expect facility conversion to turn negative now that we have passed 40%. The arithmetic of s-curves is straight forward and has precedent in the 2D adoption curve. 

 

It is also worth noting that the gross margin on the 3D system is materially higher (65-70%) than the 2D system (50%) and the corporate average, which prior to the 3D ramp averaged around 52%. Accelerated adoption of 3D systems has driven corporate gross margin up an impressive 1,000 bps to 60% in 2Q16. As 3D growth slows, and eventually goes negative, we expect to see the opposite effect take hold.

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608  TOMOCLIFF

 

2. #ACATaper While more difficult to quantify, we believe the Affordable Care Act was a tailwind to HOLX’s diagnostic business.  After years of being uninsured, new enrollees were top consumers of diagnostic tests that Hologic offers, such as HPV and PAP. This segment had been in decline prior to 2014, as a result of lengthening of the recommended interval for PAP testing, but reverted back to mid-single digit growth just as the newly insured under ACA hit the market.  We are looking to several data series to track the utilization impact of the ACA, including Healthcare Employment Job Openings (JOLTS), which we will update on a monthly basis.

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608 ACAPAP

 

LONG TERM (TAIL)

 

We expect most of our downside to be realized over a 12-18 month time period, as the gap between our Breast Health estimates and consensus widens over the course of 2017. Specifically, consensus is calling for mid-single digit Breast Health growth in 2H17 compared to our estimate for mid-to-high single digit declines.  Based on the correlation with Breast Health Product Sales growth and our forecast, we can comfortably model a return back to 6-8x EV/EBITDA multiple and a stock in the low-$20s (~12x EV/EBITDA Currently).

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608 HOLX BreastHealthSalesYoY

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608 MultipleLeadsGrowth

 

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - 20160608 EVEBITDA

ONE-YEAR TRAILING CHART

Stock Report: Hologic (HOLX) - hologic image


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