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Remember This? McCullough On Fox Business: "Jobs Growth Is Slowing" (11/6/15)

Takeaway: Today's NFP report is a certified train wreck for the "economy is improving" crowd.

Oh how the tables have turned...

 

Today's #JobsBomb was downright terrible. Vomitous. And to be clear, virtually no one on Wall Street saw this coming ... except of course our Macro team. 

 

Rewind to November. Outspoken Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough was on Fox Business. He was warning viewers about the risks of #EmploymentSlowing, while most pundits were applauding the "Where's Waldo" Jobs Report that showed a non-farm payroll number of 271,000. In the clip above, McCullough laid out our call on #TheCycle and why the U.S. economy is sliding off its peak.

 

By the way, back then the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.32%.

Today? 1.72%.

Yes, U.S. growth is slowing.

yes. we called it.


Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike?

Takeaway: Yesterday, markets predicted a more than 50% chance of a July rate hike. Now, rate hike expectations don't get above 50% until December.

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - Jobs.rate hike cartoon 11.04.2015

 

The #JobsBomb (a.k.a. the May Non-Farm Payroll number of 38,000) just shocked Old Wall consensus.

 

How do we know?

 

Take a look at investor's most recent expectations for a Fed rate hike. Yesterday, markets were predicting a more than 50% chance of a July rate hike. Now, rate hike expectations don't get above 50% until December.

 

What a difference a day can make...

6/2/2016

 

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - rate hike prob 6 2

6/3/2016

 

Jobs Bomb = Fed Dovish? = December Rate Hike? - rate hike prob 6 3

 

We're not surprised. We've been saying #EmploymentSlowing for a while now.

 

When will the Old Wall learn?


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, and rates and bond spreads. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 6 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 6 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 6 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 6 3

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 6 3


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe: Everything Must Go

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses why department stores are slowly fading away. "The downward arc started well over a decade ago—long before the Great Recession," Howe writes. "In fact, you need to go back to the Clinton ‘90s to find a really healthy growth year for department stores... Those days are long gone."

 

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.


CHART OF THE DAY: What To Watch Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As we’ve highlighted, just because we’re charged with generating high-frequency macro commentary doesn’t mean the slower, temporal progression of the cycle ceases to exists. As the Chart of the Day below illustrates, our larger, late-cycle point is simply that once we roll past peak rate-of-change in payroll growth, it’s a one way street towards convergence with 0%. The period of the cycle is years and historical precedents suggest some further runway in the present employment expansion but the slope of the line has now been negative for 15 months and the baseline expectation should be for that to continue to play itself out in autocorrelated fashion to the downside."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: What To Watch Ahead Of Today's Jobs Report - CoD employment Growth


Cartoon of the Day: Today's OPEC Meeting

Cartoon of the Day: Today's OPEC Meeting - Saudi cartoon 06.02.2016

 

Nothing like $50 oil to create a positive atmosphere at the OPEC meeting in Vienna.

 

Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle, who attended the meeting, has said for months not to expect any big action at the June meeting. But Joe said he was looking for signs of potential action at the next OPEC meeting in December after continued reductions in non-OPEC production.

 

Joe believes the Saudis offered up such a sign on Wednesday when a "senior gulf official" said the Kingdom was "open" to some action to stabilize prices. As a result, for the first time in two years, we think a policy change could be under consideration at the end of the year.


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

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