Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
TRUMP TRAILING - BADLY
Trump did not actively solicit donations during the primary election, but has softened his position after finding himself well behind on that front. The problem comes down to shortfalls in fundraising and boots on the ground - without one, you can’t have the other.
Republicans have only a fraction of the money they had 2008 and 2012, and less of an infrastructure than their counterparts. While he’s certainly learning on the fly, he’ll soon appreciate the fact that you can’t win a general election the same way you won the primary.
NOT ALL THAT GLITTERS IS GOLD
Bernie Sanders continues to hold massive rallies in CA ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. If Sanders can pull off the win next week, it should be a huge momentum boost, but where does it carry him given that primary season will be over that day (with the exception of DC on June 13)?
A win for Sanders could only weaken Clinton, especially after she grabbed CA Governor Jerry Brown’s endorsement yesterday. The outcome is sure to be close, but when June 8th rolls around and Clinton is well over the delegate count, either the flame will be snuffed out of the Sanders campaign or his scorched earth tactics will continue all the way to the Democratic convention in late July.
The Libertarian party has recently drawn more attention this election due to voters seeking alternatives to likely presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now with former NM Governor Gary Johnson locking up the Libertarian party’s presidential nomination along with former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate, expect the Libertarian duo to pull votes from presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Looks like a third party run may come back to bite Trump – and that doesn’t even include the potential entry of an Independent party candidate being recruited by conservatives - David French (yes, who?) is considering jumping into the fray.