The Yellen Fed seems oblivious to the idea that they are considering hiking rates into an economic slowdown.
Takeaway: Trump Trailing - Badly; Not All That Glitters Is Gold; Libertarian Limelight
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
Trump did not actively solicit donations during the primary election, but has softened his position after finding himself well behind on that front. The problem comes down to shortfalls in fundraising and boots on the ground - without one, you can’t have the other.
Republicans have only a fraction of the money they had 2008 and 2012, and less of an infrastructure than their counterparts. While he’s certainly learning on the fly, he’ll soon appreciate the fact that you can’t win a general election the same way you won the primary.
Bernie Sanders continues to hold massive rallies in CA ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. If Sanders can pull off the win next week, it should be a huge momentum boost, but where does it carry him given that primary season will be over that day (with the exception of DC on June 13)?
A win for Sanders could only weaken Clinton, especially after she grabbed CA Governor Jerry Brown’s endorsement yesterday. The outcome is sure to be close, but when June 8th rolls around and Clinton is well over the delegate count, either the flame will be snuffed out of the Sanders campaign or his scorched earth tactics will continue all the way to the Democratic convention in late July.
The Libertarian party has recently drawn more attention this election due to voters seeking alternatives to likely presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now with former NM Governor Gary Johnson locking up the Libertarian party’s presidential nomination along with former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate, expect the Libertarian duo to pull votes from presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Looks like a third party run may come back to bite Trump – and that doesn’t even include the potential entry of an Independent party candidate being recruited by conservatives - David French (yes, who?) is considering jumping into the fray.
Hedgeye Potomac Research Group's Joe McMonigle is in Vienna, Austria where OPEC is set to meet tomorrow. He tells BNN why the mood is much lighter this time compared to Doha, why $50 oil is likely temporary and his expectations for OPEC's production talks.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
Takeaway: Global bond yields hit new lows this morning nailing our #GrowthSlowing call.
Global bond yields do. Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:
"Around the world (Swiss 10yr yield hitting new lows this am at -0.40%), long-term yields have had #TheCycle right from a GDP #GrowthSlowing perspective – question now is, with the Fed “probably” raising rates in June/July, what do we do with our league leading positions in Long-Term Bonds, Munis, Utes, etc? I say it’s time to book some gains and enjoy the summer – we can always buy them back."
Below is a chart of the direction of global bond yields (indexed to 100) and what they've done in the past year:
Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle is on the ground in Vienna ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting. In the interview below with Leslie Hayward from Energy Fuse, McMonigle provides key insights ahead of the meeting and discusses why Saudi Arabia may seek an OPEC oil policy change in 2017.
Click below to watch.
Takeaway: Recently reported PMIs and revisions to the OECD's growth outlook spell out what we've long know here at Hedgeye. Global growth is slowing.
Wall Street storytelling about the stock market is at an all-time high. And one of those tall tales completely unravelled this week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough writes in a note sent to subscribers this morning:
"One narrative (for almost a year now) has been that “PMIs have bottomed” – and, clearly, post yesterday’s Chicago PMI of 49.3, last night’s China PMI of 50.2, and this morning’s 3 month low Eurozone PMI of 51.5, they have not – neither has copper and/or 'Chinese demand.'"
The OECD announced it is lowering its global growth forecasts yet again, while our Macro team has been steadfastly predicting global #GrowthSlowing for well over a year now.
Then there's this fabrication from China, relayed through state-owned media outlet the China Securities Journal.
Here's the key takeaway from our outspoken CEO Keith McCullough:
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