The Yellen Fed seems oblivious to the idea that they are considering hiking rates into an economic slowdown.
Takeaway: Trump Trailing - Badly; Not All That Glitters Is Gold; Libertarian Limelight
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email email@example.com.
Trump did not actively solicit donations during the primary election, but has softened his position after finding himself well behind on that front. The problem comes down to shortfalls in fundraising and boots on the ground - without one, you can’t have the other.
Republicans have only a fraction of the money they had 2008 and 2012, and less of an infrastructure than their counterparts. While he’s certainly learning on the fly, he’ll soon appreciate the fact that you can’t win a general election the same way you won the primary.
Bernie Sanders continues to hold massive rallies in CA ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. If Sanders can pull off the win next week, it should be a huge momentum boost, but where does it carry him given that primary season will be over that day (with the exception of DC on June 13)?
A win for Sanders could only weaken Clinton, especially after she grabbed CA Governor Jerry Brown’s endorsement yesterday. The outcome is sure to be close, but when June 8th rolls around and Clinton is well over the delegate count, either the flame will be snuffed out of the Sanders campaign or his scorched earth tactics will continue all the way to the Democratic convention in late July.
The Libertarian party has recently drawn more attention this election due to voters seeking alternatives to likely presidential nominees Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now with former NM Governor Gary Johnson locking up the Libertarian party’s presidential nomination along with former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate, expect the Libertarian duo to pull votes from presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Looks like a third party run may come back to bite Trump – and that doesn’t even include the potential entry of an Independent party candidate being recruited by conservatives - David French (yes, who?) is considering jumping into the fray.
Don Kohn Previews the FOMC Meeting
Thursday, June 9 at 11:00 a.m. ET
Please join us next Thursday for a call with former Fed Vice Chairman Don Kohn on the June 14-15 FOMC meeting. Don will offer his outlook on the jobs report, consumer spending, personal consumption, GDP growth, and other factors expected to influence the Fed's rate hike calculus.
Participating Dialing Instructions
Confirmation Number: 13638657
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
Hedgeye Potomac Research Group's Joe McMonigle is in Vienna, Austria where OPEC is set to meet tomorrow. He tells BNN why the mood is much lighter this time compared to Doha, why $50 oil is likely temporary and his expectations for OPEC's production talks.
Takeaway: Global bond yields hit new lows this morning nailing our #GrowthSlowing call.
Global bond yields do. Here's analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:
"Around the world (Swiss 10yr yield hitting new lows this am at -0.40%), long-term yields have had #TheCycle right from a GDP #GrowthSlowing perspective – question now is, with the Fed “probably” raising rates in June/July, what do we do with our league leading positions in Long-Term Bonds, Munis, Utes, etc? I say it’s time to book some gains and enjoy the summer – we can always buy them back."
Below is a chart of the direction of global bond yields (indexed to 100) and what they've done in the past year:
Hedgeye Potomac is hosting a special call with Alexander Nicoll to discuss Brexit – will the UK vote to stay or leave the EU on June 23rd?
Nicoll will discuss the events leading up to the UK vote and what the outcome of the vote spells for the UK and EU. (Hint: he believes the UK will ultimately vote to Stay...).
The call will take place on Wednesday, June 8th at 11am ET with Nicoll giving prepared remarks followed by Question & Answer.
KEY TOPICS ON THE CALL WILL INCLUDE
ABOUT ALEXANDER NICOLL
Alex Nicoll is a Consulting Member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank. Previously he was a member of the Directing Staff of the Institute as Director of Editorial, and also headed the defense program. Before joining the IISS he was a journalist at the Financial Times newspaper for 18 years, with posts covering international capital markets, Asia, and defense. Earlier, he was a foreign correspondent for Reuters news agency, with posts in Hong Kong, Paris, Tehran and New York.
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