The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 30th of May through the 3rd of June is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
Takeaway: The probability is rising that Janet makes her 2nd policy mistake (raising into a slow-down) in 8 months.
I just spent the last 30 minutes in the car listening to maybe the most complacent recap of Fed forecasting risk yet. Today Janet sounded as hawkish as she's been (mainly because her assessment of the economy is as off as it's been). Here's what she said:
“It’s appropriate, and I’ve said this in the past I think, for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate."
In other words, the probability is rising that Janet makes her 2nd policy mistake (raising into a slow-down) in 8 months.
You go rate hike pro – you go.
The biggest risk to both markets and the country remains the Fed's forecast. With a "0" in front of GDP and S&P earnings growth down -8.5% y/y, should the Federal Reserve raise rates in June?
I'll let you be the judge of that but consider this: If the US Government used the Fed's prefered measure of inflation, US GDP would have been NEGATIVE in Q1.
If you didn't listen to Hedgeye and sold on the last policy (hike) mistake in December, you're being advised to listen now.
Takeaway: Hillary's Headache, Trump Triumphs; Bernie v. Donald?; OPEC
Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email firstname.lastname@example.org.
The State Department’s IG released an in-depth report regarding Hillary Clinton’s controversial email use when she was Secretary of State. The report comes as Clinton continues to struggle with trust and favorability numbers. Although Clinton did not break any laws, it’s clear that she didn’t follow the rules. Despite her confidence moving forward, the controversy will continue to saddle her throughout her campaign - and if that doesn’t give one a big enough headache - the FBI is conducting a criminal investigation that could result in the DOJ pressing formal charges. Did you hear that roar coming from Trump Tower?
Well, it’s official. Donald J. Trump is the official Republican nominee garnering enough delegates to secure his spot on the ballot come November. Although Trump has surpassed the amount of delegates needed to win the nomination outright, look for Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and Governor John Kasich to play roles in this year’s convention agenda as they attempt to leverage their respective delegates.
Another primary debate is the last thing this country needs, but what if it’s between two diametrically opposed candidates (with a few exceptions) - one who has his nomination locked up and the other who doesn’t and won’t? Sure, we’ll tune in. Bernie and the Donald are considering debating each other on the main stage ahead of the CA primary on June 7. Now for two minutes ponder all of the issues that will come to the fore. In our opinion, Sanders has an opportunity to inflict more damage given that “he’ll do everything to defeat Donald Trump” hence softening him up for Hillary - or will it backfire and end up hurting her?
Oil bulls are no doubt pleased that oil passed the $50 threshold on Thursday but the recent rally may create tension at the June 2 OPEC meeting. Our colleague Joe McMonigle departs tonight for Vienna to attend various pre-meeting salons and the meeting on Thursday. Joe will write notes from Vienna and hold a client call on Wednesday, June 1 to provides the latest updates.
While the rally is certainly welcome news for many OPEC members, Joe believes the Saudis see the price rebound as premature serving as a lifeline for US shale production. Stay tuned for daily reports on OPEC week in Vienna from Hedgeye in the bullets.
Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.
Takeaway: The best of the best: our favorite reading material from the week of May 23rd.
Welcome to the long weekend! Need a little poolside media? Below is our list of the week's most interesting articles on healthcare and a little Maren Morris to rock you through them.
Stealth Research and Theranos, JAMA, May 18, 2016
Long-dreaded Superbug Found in Human and Animal in US, Phenomena, May 26, 2016
Health Care Services:
Memorial Sloan Kettering is blown away by response to Humans of New York's campaign, Crains, May 20, 2016
Moving Patient Payment Upfront, Modern Healthcare, May 21, 2016
Veterans Affairs Health Care System is trying a partnership with CVS to offer urgent care to vets, Healthcare Finance News, May 25, 2016 <CVS>
Medicare boss is spearheading changes to the way doctors get paid, San Francisco Chronicle, May 26, 2016
Health Care IT
The IT holy grail remains out of policymakers' hands, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <ATHN> <CERN>
Health care payment auditing company goes public, Modern Healthcare, May 26, 2016 <COTV>
Anthem and Cigna privately bicker as they seek merger approval, WSJ, May 22, 2016 <ATHM> <CI>
Uninsurance Rates and the Affordable Care Act, May 23, 2016 Health Affairs <All Insurers>
Sorry, There's Nothing Magical About Breakfast, NYT, May 23, 2016
Shameless Sell Promotion
UPDATE: CMS's Part B Drug Demo Sidelined 'til 2019, May 24, 2016
A very Happy Friday and, as we so infrequently get to say, Happy Monday too. Let's remember the people that fought the good fight. Can I get a Hallelujah?
Follow me on Twitter for more throughout the week
Takeaway: Energy policy will play a prominent role in the 2016 presidential election.
Energy promises to play a big role in the 2016 presidential election and will provide sharp contrasts between the candidates on energy policies. The November election will be a key catalyst on several issues of interest to investors. This is the first in a series of client notes on The Energy Election.
As with most issues, Donald Trump has not provided much if any details on his energy policies to date. There is no energy plan on his campaign web site so we have been left with some campaign trail rhetoric with some snippets in press interviews and tweets.
Today we got a little more visibility on Trump’s energy policies during the candidate’s speech to the annual Williston Petroleum Conference in North Dakota. It was an important venue and the home state of Trump energy advisor - Congressman Kevin Cramer.
While the speech was still lacking details, it likely provided some reassurance to those in the oil, natural gas and coal sectors.
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