A Closer Look At Today's Durable Goods Data

Takeaway: Headline Durable Goods orders jumped +3.4% MoM and improved to +1.9% YoY but the internals were less sanguine.

A Closer Look At Today's Durable Goods Data - economic indicators cartoon 02.24.2016

 

Hiding in plain sight behind Wall Street's fallacious "all is good" narrative is U.S. economic reality. A deep dive into today's durable goods data confirms our dour outlook for U.S. growth.

 

Below is analysis from Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning:

 

"Headline Durable Goods orders jumped +3.4% MoM and improved to +1.9% YoY but the internals were less sanguine with the bulk of the gain stemming from the +65% MoM increase in commercial aircraft & parts. Durables ex-Defense and Aircraft, which is most aligned with what actual households buy, rose +0.6% MoM but remains down -0.4% YoY.  

 

Meanwhile, Core Capital Goods fell MoM for a 3rd consecutive month, dropping -0.8 sequentially and holding at -5% YoY -  continuing the epic run of declining capital spending with negative year-over-year growth in 15 of the last 16 months."   

 

Here's the detailed breakdown in the chart below

 

Click image to enlarge

 

A Closer Look At Today's Durable Goods Data - durable goods 5 26

 

Next up Updates on GDP and corporate profits.

 

 


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