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Ugly Growth Reality Plagues Global Equities

Takeaway: Equity markets in Europe and Japan continue to crash on our Macro team's #GrowthSlowing and #LowerForLonger (rates) calls.

Ugly Growth Reality Plagues Global Equities - Math   Myth cartoon 03.30.2016

 

A quick look outside the manic, easy-money driven markets in the U.S. illustrates the bearish trends still plaguing equity markets (i.e. our #GrowthSlowing and #LowerForLonger themes). Once we lap the month-end markup in the U.S., the reality that corporate profits nosedived some -10.5% year-over-year and realization that over the coming quarters GDP growth bumps up against the toughest comps of the cycle will start to sink in. 

 

No. Neither of these realities is bullish for stocks. 

 

Take a look at how European and Japanese equities are grappling with #GrowthSlowing and #LowerForLonger via analysis from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:

 

"Europe was flat out ugly for Equity Bulls too – Spain leads losers this morning -1.5% and is in a race with Italian stocks for biggest draw-down from 2015 highs (both -25%!); they’re totally not into the Yellen Dollar Devaluation (Euro Up) thing; #GrowthSlowing in Europe remains our fundamental call there."

 

 

"Unlike the slow-volume squeeze U.S. equity beta had off those crashy FEB lows, Japan really sucked wind throughout Q1. The Nikkei closed down for 3 straight days to end the quarter right back in crash mode (-20% since the bubble highs in Global Equities of July 2015) – we remain bearish (short) Japan and one of its ETF manufacturers (DXJ and WETF)."

 

 

Back in the U.S., we've got ideas about how to play the coming crash. Check out: "Chart of the Day: Our Freshest Idea On The Short Side"


CHART OF THE DAY: Our Freshest Idea On The Short Side

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more. 

 

"... I shorted it in Real-Time Alerts yesterday and here’s why:

  1. We have the most bearish forecast on Wall Street for US Growth for Q2
  2. I want to be short High-Beta, High-Multiple, Over-Owned Growth in Q2
  3. My immediate-term TRADE signal said short some within its developing bearish @Hedgeye TREND"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Freshest Idea On The Short Side - 03.31.16 chart


One Of Our Best Calls YTD

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discusses our macro team’s call to remove the Industrials and Energy sector as top short ideas while adding short Financials.


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Cartoon of the Day: Reality Check

Cartoon of the Day: Reality Check - Math   Myth cartoon 03.30.2016

 

"Since Q4 ended on December 31st (they haven’t been able to centrally plan a change in the calendar dates yet), has anyone considered why we just saw the worst 6 week start to a stock market year ever? Yep, it’s the Profit vs. Credit Cycle (within the Economic Cycle), stupid," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in a recent Early Look.


The Gloves Come Off For GOP & Dem Presidential Hopefuls

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.

BADGERING TRUMP:

 

The Gloves Come Off For GOP & Dem Presidential Hopefuls - trump pic

 

Our claim that endorsements matter little will be tested next Tuesday in WI, where political and media establishment figures are lining up to endorse candidates who are not Donald Trump. WI Gov. Scott Walker endorsed Ted Cruz yesterday, while former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson is backing John Kasich. Most local conservative radio hosts are virulently anti-Trump, and anti-Trump super PACs have made more ad-buys than anyone else in the state. These efforts have had little success to date, and could just be another example of the party elite out of step with the base.

GLOVES COME OFF:

 

The Gloves Come Off For GOP & Dem Presidential Hopefuls - boxing gloves

 

Bernie Sanders is slowly ditching the nice guy persona as his victories in HI, WA and AK make him an irksome opponent to Hillary Clinton. This is the same man who proclaimed that he didn't follow polling or use negative attacks, but is singing a different tune as he sets his sights on WI. Sanders and Clinton are currently neck-and-neck in the state that shares its borders with MI and MN (both won by Sanders), but has a demographic similar to OH (won by Clinton). Sanders' strategy is to pummel Clinton on her ties to Wall Street, fracking, campaign finance, and Iraq to keep his winning streak - and hope - alive. 

NY STATE OF MIND:

 

With WI looming next week, Clinton is already turning her attention to her home state of NY with the hope that it will provide her with a decisive win over Sanders - boosting enthusiasm in her party, and securing her enough delegates to put her in a position to defeat Sanders well before CA. Sanders' strategy is to target the same districts won by Gov. Andrew Cuomo's last primary challenger (whose platform was similar to Sanders') and, although he's a Brooklynite, losing the state will not be a shock, but he wants prevent Clinton from taking home the lion's share of the delegates.   His focus will be on tightening the margins in the Empire State and in PA - where he is closer to Clinton in the polls. 


Millennials Gone Mild: The Investing Implications

 

In this complimentary edition of “About Everything,” Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the sweeping behavioral changes of Millennials (“Generation Yawn”) compared to prior generations, and spells out what it all means for investors and companies around the globe.


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