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Takeaway: What to watch on the election 2016 campaign trail.

Below is an excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning.


Stopping Trump: As Rubio Fades, All Eyes On Kasich - kasich

Having picked the eventual winner in every election since 1960, Ohio continues to be the linchpin of the presidential race. It is poised to play a unique role yet again. With Marco Rubio waning in FL, the establishment's hopes of halting Donald Trump's march hinge on John Kasich winning his home state. The components for a Kasich victory there are much more feasible there than they are for Rubio in FL: Kasich just won an election there two years ago in a landslide, has very high approval ratings, and has run a positive campaign throughout this race. Rubio on the other hand, has faces a different scenario altogether. His approval ratings are now under water and he hasn't run a state-wide election in four years.  Not to mention that neither FL Governor Rick Scott nor formal rival Jeb Bush have deigned to endorse him. 


Stopping Trump: As Rubio Fades, All Eyes On Kasich - rubio

This is the last time the goalposts will move (we hope) -- after tomorrow the possible trajectories for the Republican delegate race will narrow significantly.  If Trump sweeps, game over.  If Kasich wins Ohio or Rubio wins Florida then the math gets much trickier for Trump to win the nomination outright.  If Trump loses both OH and FL, fasten your seatbelts because we'll likely be headed to a contested convention in Cleveland.   


Stopping Trump: As Rubio Fades, All Eyes On Kasich - ted cruz 34

We know we've been guilty of focusing on FL and OH as make or break, winner-take-all states with 165 delegates in play, but there are three other states up for grabs tomorrow that deserve just a little attention with 193 proportional delegates at stake -- NC, MO and IL.  While Rubio is frantically criss-crossing his home state and Kasich following suit in his, Ted Cruz is selectively targeting voter-rich suburbs and pockets of evangelicals and mainstream conservatives in the "orphan" states looking to capitalize on the vacuum and take home a win, or at least a respectable portion of the delegates.