This Economic Indicator Slips For First Time Since Great Recession

Takeaway: Recent data releases bolster our call. U.S. growth is slowing.

This Economic Indicator Slips For First Time Since Great Recession - fed rainbows

 

The chorus of market prognosticators loudly proclaiming "all is good" in the U.S. economy seems to swell almost daily. (Overly optimistic Fed presidents are often the loudest in the bunch.) But the data continues to confirm otherwise.

 

It's interesting. Four or five months ago, virtually no one was talking about the prospect of recession. Now, at a bare minimum, it's at least a highly-clickable headline for the media to question growth slowing deniers about. 

 

This Economic Indicator Slips For First Time Since Great Recession - recession media

 

Each day the economic data continues to bolster our U.S. #GrowthSlowing call. (In January, we signaled that the likelihood of a U.S. #Recession sometime in the next one to three quarters is rising.) Here's the latest growth slowing indicator and analysis from our Macro team sent to subscribers this morning:

 

"Amazingly, the Markit Service Sector PMI falling into contraction for the 1st time since the Great Recession got almost zero media coverage yesterday. Services Consumption represents ~65% of household spending and ~45% of GDP and has hereto been held out as the bullish foil for the ongoing industrial recession.

 

The ISM Services Index has shown a similar trend – slowing in each of the last 3 months and, at the current index reading of 53.5, sits at its lowest level since the polar vortex lows of February 2014."

 

It's yet more evidence of our Macro team's gloomy economic outlook and perhaps the clearest indication yet that the biggest financial risk is believing Wall Street/Fed perma-bull consensus. 

 

Keep your head on a swivel out there.


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