• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

Takeaway: What to watch on the election 2016 campaign trail.

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. 

T-MINUS THREE WEEKS:

JT Taylor: Can Cruz Or Rubio Win? Is Sanders Losing Momentum? - rubio cruz

With Donald Trump's decisive win on Saturday and likely victory in Nevada tomorrow, his opponents -- namely Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio -- don't have much time to stop his march to Cleveland. While the terrain between NV and the mid-March primary states looks a lot like SC, two states on the docket are delegate-rich TX (March 1) and FL (March 15).

If Cruz and Rubio can't win their home states, where can they win, with the map turning to primary days with multiple contests? That gives them a significant disadvantage against a candidate who has mastered media coverage -- and who benefits from a divided three-way race when the map transitions to winner-take-all states. 

SLOW BERN:

JT Taylor: Can Cruz Or Rubio Win? Is Sanders Losing Momentum? - bernie sanders

In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders is now staring down a similar numbers problem. Clinton's victory in Nevada wasn't the same kind of razor-thin margin in Iowa, in fact it was a stronger showing than many expected. This weekend's vote feels decisive, as the "Sanders Surge" narrative gets quickly rewritten. His coalition, while enthusiastic, doesn't have the same deep roots as Clinton's -- her firewall among African Americans and older voters in Nevada held.

Sanders has the cash and momentum to continue far into the primary -- but the campaign trail over the next three weeks doesn't get any less rocky for him, and the delegate math could quickly become insurmountable.

BLOOMBERG BUBBLE BURSTING:

JT Taylor: Can Cruz Or Rubio Win? Is Sanders Losing Momentum? - bloomberg mayor

Clinton's victory in Nevada on Saturday dealt a blow not only to Bernie Sanders' campaign hopes, but also severely undercut the rationale for a run by Michael Bloomberg. He has left the trial balloon floating for a few weeks now, bemoaning the country's ills in public remarks, while remaining careful not to tip his hand as his decision deadline, at latest a few days after Super Tuesday, gets closer. The plausibility of his candidacy has fallen along with Sanders' prospects.