CLIENT TALKING POINTS
USD
Strong recovery day for the U.S. Dollar yesterday after holding 94 @Hedgeye TREND support during the 2 week correction. The rest of the world’s equities (Europe and Japan in particular need #StrongDollar as their stock markets aren’t working unless their FX weakens) – can Draghi break the Euro down to $1.05 vs USD in March? Doubt it.
EARNINGS
389 out of 500 S&P companies have reported and if you gave the bulls these numbers 6 months ago, they would have sold the OCT-DEC 2015 chart chase. Total REVS -4.2%, EPS -6.7% with only 3 of 10 Sectors showing year-over-year EPS growth. Get profits and credit right and you’ll keep getting this macro market right.
VIX
The VIX did precisely what it should have during yesterday’s slow-volume (total U.S. Equity Volume was -8% vs. 1 month average yesterday) rally to lower-highs, making a higher-low at 24 with an immediate-term risk range of 21-29. We’ve been bullish on volatility since Q3 of 2014 – this is going to go on and on and on as central planners panic.
*Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough live in the studio at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE.
TOP LONG IDEAS
XLU
Utilities worked against us for a -2% loss on the week, but remain an outperforming sector YTD. New scares in the form of increased risk from the financial sector emerged last week. Deutsche Bank made headlines over liquidity concerns that tied into CEO Keith McCullough's favorite S&P Sector short, the Financials. Financials are the most over-owned group relative to its rate risk – XLF is now -14% vs. Utilities (XLU) +5.3% YTD.
GIS
Walmart is still having an effect on General Mills, but it isn’t any more or less severe than previously guided by management. They will begin to lap some of the effects caused by the retailer at the beginning of their 4Q16 (starting in March). Five years ago they dealt with a similar clean store policy implemented by Walmart. Coming out of that they seemed to have gotten more than their fair share of upside, specifically in cereal and fruit snacks, now they are seeing a little more than their fair share on the downside.
TLT
Investors continue to be confronted with our signal of #GrowthSlowing in the U.S. and globally. Even the White House came out to reduce 2016 U.S. inflation assumption to 1.5% from prior expectations of 1.9%! We’ve called for yield compression alongside our signal of growth slowing and our expectation that global investors will continue to pile into US Treasuries as a “safe haven” liquid play. Last week, the US 10 year fell 13bps to 1.736%.Continue with our go-to macro market calls of long TLT and short JNK, and things don’t have to be so doom and gloom.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | 63% | US EQUITIES | 0% | |
| INTL EQUITIES | 0% | COMMODITIES | 2% | |
| FIXED INCOME | 24% | INTL CURRENCIES | 11% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
Our analysts talk earnings..
VIDEO | Young Guns: A Deep Dive Into #Earnings https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/49153-young-guns-a-deep-dive-into-earnings?type=video…
@KeithMcCullough
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.
Albert Einstein
STAT OF THE DAY
The youth unemployment rate in Spain is 48.3%.
