JT Taylor: 4 Thoughts Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary

Takeaway: New Hampshire and Iowa are very different animals.

Below is a brief excerpt from Potomac Research Group Senior Analyst JT Taylor's Morning Bullets sent to institutional clients each morning. 

 

JT Taylor: 4 Thoughts Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary - bernie

 

"NEW HAMPSHIRE IS A VERY DIFFERENT ANIMAL, BUT SOME TAKEAWAYS FROM THE IOWA CAUCUS GIVE US CLUES FOR HOW THE NATION'S FIRST PRIMARY MAY PLAY OUT:

 

The Trump spectacle draws large crowds, but he was hurt by an inability to transfer that into committed voters. Cruz by contrast won "the Iowa way" with a new twist, marrying a heavy emphasis on door-to-door campaigning with cutting-edge digital targeting and demographic modeling. Evangelicals made up 64% of Iowa Republicans, and a large portion of the remaining voters classified themselves as very conservative. NH is one of the least religious states in the country and has a large block of libertarian and moderate voters. Fertile ground for Trump and Rubio -- or one of the governors. Not Cruz.

A Trump Ceiling?

Entrance and exit polls from Iowa indicated that higher turnout, especially among new voters, didn't translate into a big Trump boost -- it seems his presence in the race brought out an even share of fans and detractors. This may be indicative of a Trump ceiling among Republican primary voters -- a notion that would be cemented with a similar result in the Granite state. Trump needs a ground game to complement his message in order to win here and beyond.


Bush got burned. Badly

His campaign and Super PAC spent a combined $14.1 million in Iowa on ads alone -- that works out to more than $2,800 per vote for a dismal sixth-place finish. In NH, he'll be hard-pressed to convince voters that he's a better establishment standard-bearer than Rubio, who he just lost to by 20 points...


Sanders is in for the long haul

His campaign announced this week that it had pulled in $20 million in donations in January alone, averaging $27 apiece -- something he repeatedly highlighted in his not-quite-concession speech Monday night. Did we mention that he raised an additional $3 million after that speech? He's vowed to take the fight to Hillary "all the way to the convention."


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