HEAD SCRATCHER | San Fran Fed Head John Williams Walks Back Hawkish Rate Hike Talk In Just 25 Days

Takeaway: The preponderance of economic data is rolling over. The Fed missed it. Again.

HEAD SCRATCHER | San Fran Fed Head John Williams Walks Back Hawkish Rate Hike Talk In Just 25 Days - Fed cartoon 04.30.2015

Dear John,

 

What happened?!?

 

HEAD SCRATCHER | San Fran Fed Head John Williams Walks Back Hawkish Rate Hike Talk In Just 25 Days - mktwatch fed 1 4

 

From MarketWatch (1/4/2016):

 

"...I think we have really really strong fundamentals, in terms of consumer spending, in terms of our economic trajectory ... [For 2016] I think something in that three to five rate hike range makes sense at least at this time," Williams said in an interview on CNBC.

 

fast forward to this past Friday...

 

HEAD SCRATCHER | San Fran Fed Head John Williams Walks Back Hawkish Rate Hike Talk In Just 25 Days - fed reuters 1 29

 

From Reuters (1/29/2016):

 

"Standard monetary policy strategy says a little less inflation, maybe a little less growth ... argue for just a smidgen slower process of normalizing rates," Williams said.

 

"We got a little stronger dollar, some mixed data on the economy, some weakness in (fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth), all of those coming together kind of tell me that we probably need a little bit more monetary accommodation this year than I was thinking in the middle of December."

 

(sigh)

 

Here's a recent video of Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough evaluating the Fed's economic models.


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