Is That An Asteroid On The Horizon? A Closer Look At Jobless Claims

Takeaway: The cycle is late. We know it. Michael Crichton knows it. You should know it too.

This is a complimentary excerpt from a research note written today by our Financials team. If you would like more information about subscribing to our institutional research, please contact sales@hedgeye.com.

 

* * *

 

“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled.”

-Michael Crichton

 

Is That An Asteroid On The Horizon? A Closer Look At Jobless Claims - asteroid

 

While consensus still regards the labor market as strong and improving, the simple fact is that the labor data is getting less good from a rate of change standpoint. This matters, as second derivates are the natural precursor/harbinger to first derivate changes. Initially, things get less good, then they get bad.

 

Initial jobless claims have hit their frictional lower bound and we're coming up on the anniversary of that lower bound meaning that the best they can do going forward is not get any worse. Imagine if that were a company at full earnings power/potential and the best it could is not see earnings decline going forward.

 

Is That An Asteroid On The Horizon? A Closer Look At Jobless Claims - Claims6

 

Not to digress, but what would that be worth? Obviously, not much of a growth premium and yet the market is still trading at its 9th highest decile on CAPE since 1926. The analog here for Financials is peak earnings from a credit standpoint for balance sheet-intensive Financial companies. We've finally begun to see credit costs stop falling, and in some cases they have begun to rise. Even with some late-cycle loan growth, this spells peak earnings. Stairs up, elevator down.

 

Meanwhile, rolling SA claims are in their 23rd month below 330k. The last three cycles saw claims remain below 330k for 24, 45 and 31 months (33 months on average) before the economy entered recession. That puts us 10 months from the average, 1 month from the min and 22 months from the max.

 

Any way you slice it, the hour is late and there's a faint glow of asteroid on the horizon. 

 

Is That An Asteroid On The Horizon? A Closer Look At Jobless Claims - Claims17

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more