Less Good is Bad - 2016 Outlook | Call Invite

Takeaway: We will be hosting a conference call on Wednesday, January 13th at 11:00am EST to update our outlook for Housing in 2016.

Less Good is Bad - 2016 Outlook | Call Invite - housing theme cartoon 01.05.2016 FIX

The Hedgeye Housing Team, led by Joshua Steiner and Christian Drake, will be hosting a conference call on Wednesday, January 13th at 11:00am EST to update their outlook for Housing in 2016.  

KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE 

  • 2016: A Wall of Worry or Slope of Hope? Will housing return to stall speed growth after a solid year of acceleration? The same model that underpinned our long thesis in housing in 2012/13/15 and short position in 2014 is signaling another inflection as we head into 2016.
  • What if? – Navigating Recession Risk: What happens to housing and housing stocks when the economy stalls? Not all cycles are the same and the nature of the cycle matters for housing related equity performance.
  • Houston, We Have a Problem: The energy collapse has been a millstone around the neck of certain homebuilders. That situation looks poised to get worse. 
  • What’s the catalyst?  Domestic growth is decelerating, the energy market, labor/lot supply and interest rate volatility issues won’t resolve in the next quarter and, from a rate-of-change perspective, 2016 will be less good.
  • What's Priced In? What's priced into consensus and how do those expectations compare with the outlook for growth? Is valuation a catalyst after the recent correction in multiples?
  • Rates 180: Rates have been a primary boogeyman stalking housing for the better part of 2015.  We’ll contextualize housing’s sensitivity to rates during variant tightening cycles and discuss the implications of our outlook for the current cycle.
  • HPI Inflection: 2nd derivative HPI trends matter in housing and the slope of price growth is likely to stall. We'll detail the HPI outlook and what it means for housing related equities. 
  • Top Ideas: We'll run through the names and groups that we think are best (and worst) positioned for yet another reversal in housing.

CALL DETAILS

  • Toll Free Number:
  • Toll Number:
  • Conference Code: 13626823
  • Materials: CLICK HERE

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Christian B. Drake