prev

Not Again! Atlanta Fed Cuts Its GDP Forecast

Takeaway: The Atlanta Fed has cut its GDP forecast four times since November. That is not a misprint.

Not Again! Atlanta Fed Cuts Its GDP Forecast - fed forecast crystal ball

 

This is getting, how shall we say it ... bizarre.

 

The Atlanta Fed just lowered it's fourth quarter GDP forecast. Again. Now, they predict that GDP will come in at 0.7%. For the record, in late November, the Atlanta Fed put that same forecast at 2.2%. In other words, they just supported the rate hike but have tacitly admitted that growth is slowing.

 

Not Again! Atlanta Fed Cuts Its GDP Forecast - atlanta fed gdp

 

Huh?

 

It gets worse. If our memory serves us right, just two weeks ago Atlanta Fed head Dennis Lockhart called U.S. growth "solid."

 

Question: What's so solid about cutting your GDP forecast four times in the past six weeks?

 

We've been chronicling this almost weekly occurrence for weeks now (here and here). To be clear, at 0.7%, their estimate is at the lower-end of our long-held and apparently justified gloomy GDP outlook.

 

Meanwhile, Wall Street is deluding itself with estimates that are nowhere near today's #GrowthSlowing reality. That, of course, is par for the course.

 

 

In other Fed "Fantasy Land" news, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said on CNBC today that he was unfazed by today's weak (recessionary) economic data out of China.

 

CNBC asked Williams what it means for the U.S. economy. Here's his response:

 

"In terms of those developments ricocheting into the U.S. economy, I think we have really really strong fundamentals, in terms of consumer spending, in terms of our economic trajectory, so right now at least this isn't a big concern for me... I think something in that three to five rate hike range makes sense at least at this time."

 

This is frightening.

 

Remember when the Fed was spooked into postponing its September rate hike because "many [officials] acknowledged that recent global economic and financial developments may have increased the downside risks to economic activity somewhat"?

 

Such concerns are apparently now a distant memory, the narrative of which has shifted to some rose-colored ideal of how strong the economy should be.

 

Again. Frightening.


Why A U.S. Recession Is Actually Bullish For The Dollar

 

In this brief excerpt from Real-Time-Alerts Live, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber's question and explains why our dour economic outlook is actually bullish for the U.S. dollar.

 

 

Subscribe to Real-Time Alerts today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


5 Must-See Clips Distilling Hedgeye's Best Ideas

5 Must-See Clips Distilling Hedgeye's Best Ideas - keith cartoon

 

Want a quick primer on what Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough thinks about financial markets right now?

 

The videos below will do precisely that and give you a distinct advantage over the crowd. In less than 15 minutes, you'll gain insight into some of our highest conviction ideas. Whether you watch one or all, these videos should help shelter your portfolio from market meltdowns like today.

 

P.S. If you like what you see here, you'll definitely enjoy and benefit from our deeper, more granular offering to subscribers. Incidentally, we're having a New Year's promo. Click here to learn more and get a ridiculously good deal.

 

Enjoy!

 

McCullough: The Three Signs of Coming Recession

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the three precursors to a U.S. recession and urges viewers to be wary of one in 2016.

 

 

McCullough: This Is Our Best Idea Right Now

 

McCullough shares our current best idea and highlights the risks of Old Wall-styled year-end calls.

 

The U.S. Economic Outlook In 2016? Not Good

 

McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discuss U.S. third quarter GDP and why our non-consensus 2016 growth outlook is looking grim.

 

MCCULLOUGH: THE BEST WAY TO PLAY THE COMING RECESSION

 

McCullough explains why he’s becoming “the most bullish guy on Wall Street again.” Watch the video to see exactly what he’s so bullish on.

 

 

McCullough: ‘Sharp and Ugly Reformation’ Headed for Wall Street

 

McCullough delivers a fiery response to a subscriber’s question on the staggering level of “negligence and arrogance” from bankers, the Federal Reserve and financial media.

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World

Takeaway: A quick parsing of Old Wall's storytelling.

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - 8 ball bubble 12.11.2015

 

After (wildly) missing the mark in 2015, Wall Street consensus is calling for a 7% gain in the S&P 500 for 2016.

 

We'd take the other side of that trade.  

 

Meanwhile, as the first trading day of the year begins, Old Wall's bullish cabal isn't getting much help from global equity markets.

 

(Today's performance [in dollar terms] is highlighted in the image below)

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - wei ytd

 

Global markets took a beating after China's lackluster manufacturing data and the US's own (recessionary) ISM number.

 

Permabulls Are Living In a Fantasy World - ism recession tracker 

 

For 2016, Wall Street equity strategists had been forecasting profitable year for U.S. stocks, with an S&P 500 target of 2,200. Funny enough, they were a bit more circumspect this go-around. Last week, we noted that many big bank strategists had pegged their 2016 S&P 500 price target to a number now below their 2015 prediction.  

 

Weird, right?

 

We've been warning you for a while now about the coming pullback in equity markets. Here's Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, in a video from a month ago, summing up that risk in one word.

 

 

Globally, stocks are down today precisely because investors are coming to grips with our #LateCycle and #GrowthSlowing Macro themes.

 

 

Remember too, that our Macro team called the highs before the August cliff-dive in the S&P 500 contrary to Wall Street storytelling.

 

... And here's how it all played out in the real world during 2015.

 

 

Today's selloff was not a good start for Old Wall permabulls. Here's a decent New Year's resolution for investors still recovering Old Wall forecasting hangovers.

 

 

Or celebrate the New Year by joining us.


RTA Live: January 4, 2016

 


McCullough: ‘The Economy Is A Slow Moving Train Wreck’

On Fox Business' Mornings with Maria today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discussed why investors shouldn't buy equities on today's pullback and why he still likes the Long bond (TLT).

 


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next