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Monday Mashup - CHARt 1

RECENT NOTES

12/21/15 DRI | GREAT QUARTER, DON’T EXPECT ANOTHER ONE SOON

12/17/15 AN OPEN LETTER TO THE CEO OF CHIPOTLE FROM HIS PEER GROUP

12/16/15 DRI | ONE LAST GOOD QUARTER

12/11/15 YUM | INVESTOR DAY IN REVIEW

12/9/15 CMG | WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THEIR STRUGGLES? (ZOES, PNRA, QDOBA, CHUY, MCD)

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Casual Dining and Quick Service stocks that we follow outperformed the XLY, last week, which was down -0.9%. Top performers on a relative basis from casual dining were DRI and KONA posting increases of +9.1% and +6.8%, respectively, while NDLS and JMBA led the quick service group this week up +3.9% and +3.6%, respectively.

Monday Mashup - CHART 2

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

XLY VERSUS THE MARKET

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHART 6

Monday Mashup - CHART 7

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS

Monday Mashup - CHART 8

Monday Mashup - CHART 9

Monday Mashup - CHART 10

Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

The Fed tightened into a slow-down last week and perpetuated #deflation in doing so…

 

  1. VIX – with the SP500 -3.6% for DEC, front-month VIX is back up at 20.70 – more importantly, it’s risk range is now 17.84-24.83 and this breakout on our TREND duration has been brutal for High Beta as a Style Factor, which was down another -2% last wk
  2. SPAIN – down hard in a generally up tape for European Equities this morning – post the Spanish election the IBEX is -2% (-7.5% in the last month) while the 10yr Yield for Spain is +11bps to 1.80%; I still think Draghi wants to snap Euro $1.05 vs. USD
  3. OIL – down another -0.6% this morning to $34.49 after deflating another -3% last week - #Deflation is not “transitory”, it’s been pervasive and since the US is in an industrial recession right now, it’s finding its way into revs/earnings for 1H 2016

SPX immediate-term risk range = 1; UST 10yr Yield 2.12-2.32%

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst