Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause

Takeaway: Today's disappointing data confirms a number of our non-consensus calls and risk of first Fed Hike (into a slowdown) since the early 80s.

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - consumer slowing

 

STILL DON'T BELIEVE GROWTH IS SLOWING? WE DON'T KNOW WHAT TO SAY. 

 

While the latest round of lackluster economic data continues to confound Old Wall expectations, we're not surprised. Our Macro team continues to reiterate its #GrowthSlowing and #SuperLateCycle calls even while many on Wall Street cherry-pick last month's "Where's Waldo" jobs report number as the latest "evidence" to remain ebullient. 

 

Oh well. The data continues to be on our side.

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - retail sales

 

Look no further than today's retail sales and producer price numbers. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough had this to say: 

 

"Both US Retail Sales and PPI slowed (again) this month. If you missed the Macy’s and Nordstrom blowups this week, just wait until US Retailers comp the toughest comp in 5 yrs (in November). Oh, and the Fed is going to hike into this slowdown. That should be fantastic for the [producer prices] which is crashing to new lows like Copper did this week. USD #Deflation Risk = On."

 

Today's PPI reading confirmed our concerns about #Deflation (one of our calls for over a year now). Here's a five year look at PPI including the latest number. To be sure, the slope of the line is unambiguously negative:

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - PPI

 

We nailed retail sales too. This past July, Hedgeye Macro analyst Darius Dale warned subscribers about #ConsumerSlowing...  

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - darius macro consumer

 

Again, here are the latest numbers and the increasingly tough comps for retail sales in November.

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - retail sales  keith

 

And this beauty...

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - z km retail report

 

Need more proof? Anecdotal evidence of the consumer spending crash is sprinkled all over equity markets. 

 

Here's Macy's (M) CEO Terry Lundgren earlier this week:

 

"We believe that the retail industry is going through a tough period that we seem to experience something like this every five to seven years or so, and this one feels familiar in that regard."  

 

... And a look at Macy's stock chart:

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - Macys down

 

Then there's Nordstrom (JWN) CFO Mike Koppel:

 

“It appears that there has been a slowdown in the overall demand for the customer that is purchasing what we sell.”

 

... And the resulting stock plunge:

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - Nordstrom

 

Not to alarm you further... but even after Kohl's (KSS) posted seemingly positive earnings, its shares are getting shellacked too on #ConsumerSlowing woes. (Note: our Retail analyst Brian McGough reiterated his short call yesterday.)

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - KSS

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - KSS brian

 

Bottom Line: None of this is reassuring. Economic Pollyannas be advised.

 

Dear Fed, If You're Truly 'Data Dependent', This Should Give You Serious Pause - z xx


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