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HAIN | THE COMPETITIVE ISSUES ARE JUST BEGINNING

Hain Celestial (HAIN) remains on the Consumer Staples Best Ideas list as a SHORT.

 

Three issues crept up on the company this quarter and they will likely not go away any time soon:

  • Increased competition from bigger brands that are household names
  • Across many categories in the grocery store HAIN is being forced to lower their price points to drive volume
  • Outsourcing critical sales functions to cut costs is a big risk 

 

HAIN issued a disaster of a quarter and management did their best job trying to make the issues the company faces seem to be just one quarter issues.  A closer looks suggest that the landscape is changing and HAIN is going to struggle to defend itself across multiple categories and channels, competing against significantly bigger competitors. 

 

It’s well documented that the food landscape has changed dramatically. Fresh, organic and natural products continue to take share from conventional brands and products and every retailer and foodservice operator is expanding into this space.  HAIN’s efforts to be all things to all people by having food for sale at every cash register is an impossible task to manage.

 

How is it that a company whose G&A expenses are less than half that of its bigger competitors, could be expected to effectively compete in the market.  As Irwin Simon loves to say, “Hain is increasingly becoming more and more channel agnostic. Today our products may be found in many different channels and many different places around the world, illustrating customers' heightened awareness of overall health, wellness and their desire for Farm to Table organic natural products wherever they shop today. Where there is a cash register, as I said many times, or e-commerce, I want a Hain product and I want to sell a product.”

 

This business philosophy could actually be the company’s downfall.  Unfortunately, the company’s product lines are focused on the center of the store and that is not where the consumer is going. 

 

Increasingly, many consumers are moving towards more fresh products and Farm to Table product offerings, whether it's at home or eating out. Unfortunately, HAIN is lacking in that area.  Most of HAIN’s products come in boxes or bags and are sold in the center of the store.  The parts of the business that make up that type of offering, fresh juices, antibiotic free and organic protein and the meat-free and plant-based products are insignificant to the total company. 

 

HAIN missed 1Q16 on the back of a disappointing performance for Hain U.S.  Hain Celestial U.S. Q1 net sales of $331.2 million were down 4.6% versus a year ago.

 

The Q1 net sales shortfall was driven primarily by:

  • Natural channel consumption softness
  • Unprofitable year ago baby and nut butter club programs that they chose not to repeat
  • Lost sales and inventory from a distributor and account shifts
  • Currency on Ella's Kitchen UK

These four factors cost approximately $16 million in 1Q16 net sales.

 

HAIN U.S. 1Q16 adjusted operating income of $46.6 million was down 11% YoY.  Adjusted operating income margin was 14.1% down 100 bps YoY.  The 1Q16 income and margin declines resulted from:

  • Top line shortfall
  • Higher YoY nut butter cost
  • Partially offset by productivity savings of $7.6 million

 

IRI 1Q16 consumption for the top 13 brands (which account for over 80% of MULO sales) were up 6% YoY.  The increase was led by double-digit gains on:

  • Sensible Portions
  • Greek Gods
  • Terra Chips
  • Alba Botanica

 

On the positive side of HAIN U.S., personal care, yogurt, tea, snacks and Ella's delivered high single-digit sales growth and double-digit operating income growth for 1Q16.

 

Management boiled down the issues at HAIN U.S. to two products - MaraNatha and Spectrum.

 

According to the company “MaraNatha is still recovering from last year's voluntary recall, specifically in regard to the loss of almond butter sales velocity, peanut butter distribution and private label losses, which was a business that totaled $20 million in annual sales for MaraNatha prior to the recall.”

 

Here is managements strategy to fix MaraNatha:

  1. Strategically reducing the product on shelf to eliminate or reduce competitive price deltas and increase MaraNatha sales velocity
  2. Offsetting peanut butter losses with innovative new products like no-added sugar or added salt almond butter
  3. Recapture our lost private label customers
  4. New see-through labels on MaraNatha packages

 

Here is managements strategy to fix Spectrum:

  1. Spectrum is getting attacked by lower price competition in coconut oil, which accounts for about 40% of HAIN’s business
  2. Crisco has introduced an organic coconut oil that competed with Spectrum.  Management said on the call “Easy for us to take Spectrum down to that level and get that price, but Spectrum does not stand for that quality and we won't to it”
  3. But then they went on to say – “strategically lowering prices on shelf for key customers to eliminate or significantly reduce competitive price deltas.”
  4. Work to communicate particularly on shelf, Spectrum's superior product quality

 

There are many instances in the organic space where HAIN is the premium product and bigger name competitors are introducing “organic” products at much lower price points.  The fix for HAIN is to lower price and/or invest in building awareness of the brand.  Given that many of HAIN’s brands have very little household awareness; this is going to be an expensive proposition.  Part of the 2H16 recovery story is predicated on “very optimistic” assumptions of MaraNatha and Spectrum which carry high risk.

 

Another opportunity for HAIN is to improve "Retail Mix Optimization" or said another way focus on the top 500 brands SKUs which “are significantly outperforming” the total business.

 

In theory, by putting increased emphasis on driving the top 500 SKUs, the retailer benefits because they'll get better velocity out of their slots on the shelf.  On the HAIN side, management is tying field sales incentive compensation to achieving specific top 500 SKU distribution gains at each customer.

 

Consistent with recent past call, HAIN management team focuses the street on on the increase of 100,000 points of distribution (POD).  Given that 80%-90% of these PODs are on the shelf as of 1Q16, it does not seem to be having much impact, given 4% decline in distribution. 

 

Lastly, management believes that the Celestial Seasonings restage will drive significant growth; the initiative is based on the new packaging graphics expanding the target market - millennials.  On the call management said, “The Celestial Seasonings brand has already started to get some traction here, because what we've seen is we've experienced an 8% increase in purchases by millennial households in the last 12 weeks.”

 

In an attempt to drive out costs, HAIN outsourced retail merchandising to Advantage in March.  Initially, this shift has caused some problems. Over time HAIN believes that the partnership will be a competitive advantage in regards to retail merchandising, promotional execution and distribution expansion in the natural channel, especially in 2H16.

 

In summary, none of what management said on the call makes me concerned about my SHORT thesis.

 

FINANCIAL COMMENTARY

Net sales for the first quarter this year were $687 million representing an 11% increase on a constant currency basis but coming in well short of consensus estimates of $703 million.  Net sales were negatively affected by foreign currencies of $24.4 million and reduced nut butter sales. The Mona Group, Empire, Kosher and Belvedere acquisitions represented $52 million of net sales in the quarter. Mona net income was $31.3 million compared to $18.9 million in last year's first quarter.

 

Gross margin on an adjusted basis were 22.4% as compared to 23.5% in the prior year quarter, coming in 110bps short of consensus estimates. This 110 basis point decline was principally driven by the composition of the sales mix, increased costs associated with improvement to preventive controls in the nut butter business and, to a lesser extent, higher inflation. SG&A expense for the quarter on an adjusted basis and excluding amortization of acquired intangible assets was 12.5% of net sales, a 120 basis point improvement from last year.

 

Operating income for the quarter was $57.5 million on a GAAP basis compared to $28.8 million last year. On an adjusted basis, operating margin was 9.2% of net sales at $63.2 million this year, increasing 7.5% from $58.8 million, narrowly missing consensus estimates of $63.6 million.  Adjusted operating margins improved across all segments on a constant currency basis except in the U.S. Operating margin improvement was driven principally by HPP segment, which realized improved sales mix and productivity gains and the UK from improved commodity pricing and productivity gains.

 

HAIN reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.37 compared to $0.34 per diluted share in last year's quarter, coming in line with consensus estimates. Earnings per share this year were negatively impacted by $0.01 due to FX and a dilutive effect of the Mona acquisition.

 

MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE

Management reiterated their full year fiscal 2016 guidance, expecting net sales to be in the range of $2.97 billion to $3.11 billion. And earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $2.11 to $2.26 for the full year.

 

MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY

“So as those get in and we keep driving against them for the second half, that's when we will see our strongest growth and we expect the second half, they rally us back to high mid-single digit growth or high single digits growth."

 

“Can you just remind us how much the natural channel is now as a percentage of either your overall U.S. sales or your total company sales?  - It's about 25% of our sales, the whole natural channel.”

 

“BluePrint needs to evaluate price and I think BluePrint, and that category, has become crowded. I think there is such a big opportunity, and there is some repositioning going on in that category too. We’re just going through something like that right now on BluePrint with them. How do we get the right price to BluePrint to drive volume, because you can sit there $10.99 and move one per store per day or bring it down to a reasonable price whether it's $6.99, $7.99 and you see numbers grow 30%, 40%. So hopefully you're going to get more efficiencies.”

 

“Focusing on the top 500 primarily for conventional because, as we've talked in the past, basically in an average grocery store, you'll find 300 to 500 Hain SKUs, and in the average mass merch, you'll find 100 to 175 SKUs. So that's where the greatest impact will go.”

 

“The natural channel prides itself on having more variety. And so we have to figure out what's the right number there, just like we found 500 for conventional. And the key there is just always – it's fundamental, get the right mix on shelf, show the retailer what your research shows the best mix to drive sales and profit on their shelves for them.”

 

“And that again – just to go back to what John said, part of the problem was distributors brought into supermarkets some of these SKUs that didn't have a chance of selling in grocery stores and belong in natural food stores. So either there was spoils and that's why you see some of the consumption numbers with SKUs out there that just never had a chance. They were priced wrong. It was a wrong product. And that's kind of some of the things going on with Safeway right now and Albertsons.”

 

“Good. First, I apologize if I missed this, but did you guys give U.S. organic growth in the quarter? Well, U.S. organic growth from the U.S. businesses were down.”

 

“Our Tilda rice business is strong and not so much bagged rice. It's the ready-to-eat as consumers – millennials today want to be able to heat it up and heat it up at home.”

 

Please call or e-mail with any questions.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Shayne Laidlaw

Analyst

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Stock Market Breadth Reminiscent of Summer 2007

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more and subscribe. 

 

"... With almost 2/3 of stocks in the Russell 3000 (98% of US stocks you could buy/sell) trading below their 200-day Moving Monkey, even the non-quant-one-factor-price-momentum-chart-chaser sees the decay in the internals of the US stock market at this point."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Stock Market Breadth Reminiscent of Summer 2007 - Chart of the Day


Invisible Shoots

“The effect was invisible to an observer of the overall market or someone studying just a few stocks.”

-Lasse Heje Pedersen

 

The aforementioned quote comes from a thick book I cracked open on the way to Houston, Texas yesterday titled Efficiently Inefficient, where the author (Pedersen) prefaces his learnings about markets with his experience working at AQR in 2007.

 

In the summer of 2007 quant fund AQR (co-founded by the colorful Cliff Asness who is a must follow on Twitter) “was profiting from some bets against the subprime market but was starting to experience a puzzling behavior of the equity markets…”

 

“… equity investors had started liquidating some of their long and short positions, which affected equity prices in a subtle way. It made cheap stocks cheaper, expensive stocks more expensive, while leaving overall equity prices relatively unchanged…”

 

Sound familiar?

 

Invisible Shoots - Bull goes... 07.11.2014

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

With almost 2/3 of stocks in the Russell 3000 (98% of US stocks you could buy/sell) trading below their 200-day Moving Monkey, even the non-quant-one-factor-price-momentum-chart-chaser sees the decay in the internals of the US stock market at this point.

 

While every risk management overlay I use signaled the subtle bubble effect in US Equity prices at the summer 2015 high (1st time we went bearish on SPY = July 2015 Macro Themes call), after equity volatility went from 12 to 40 (VIX), it wasn’t subtle anymore.

 

As a result, consensus equity market bulls spent AUG-SEP “taking down gross long exposure” and “tightening net exposure” to the point that we had the biggest net SHORT position (CFTC futures/options contracts) of the year at the end of September.

 

Then the epic October squeeze…

 

Now, after consensus hedge funds have covered some of that -281,000 net short position (down to -181,291 contracts as of last Tuesday’s non-commercial CFTC positioning data), the SP500 has been down for 4 straight days.

 

But what does it all mean? Does it matter if the SP500 isn’t “down huge” (if you pick the lower-all-time-high as your reference point)? Or is that just a brain-dead thing to say for someone who is supposed to be selling active management products?

 

Remember, the SP500 was “flat” in 1987 too.

 

Much like how we measure everything else here @Hedgeye (in rate of change terms), after an epic OCT squeeze, both the SP500 and Russell 2000 are still -2.4% and -8.6% from their all-time closing highs.

 

Is that a buying opportunity?

 

How about in the expensive stocks that continue to get more expensive as the cyclicals (which looked “cheap” on the wrong numbers) continue to get cheaper?

 

Watching Priceline (PCLN) yesterday was interesting, if only because it tests the narrative of how expensive growth stocks can get in a top-down #GrowthSlowing macro market:

 

  1. Long-term “growth investors” could have bought all the PCLN in the world at $45/share in OCT of 2008
  2. Short-term chart chasers could have established a cost basis of $1454/share in OCT of 2015
  3. After losing -10% of its market cap in 2 weeks, the stock is still expensive at 28x trailing 12 month earnings

 

I personally have no opinion on PCLN, so please don’t take this subtle US equity market observation personally.

 

We’ve had an explicitly bearish opinion on inflation expectations (for almost 18 months now) and continue to see Red Shoots this morning when I look across the risk spectrum of Global #Deflation:

 

  1. Trending Foreign Currency (FX) #crashes around the world are firmly intact
  2. Both the Hang Seng and KOSPI were down -1.4% overnight after failing @Hedgeye TREND resistance
  3. Copper’s crash continues, down another -0.7% this morning to $2.21/lb (-22% YTD after starting 2015 at $2.82/lb)

 

So, if you’re still telling clients to buy “reflation” on some bogus PMI lag thing, they’re getting deflated by both marked-to-market risk and trending economic demand data. Reminder, last week’s ISM print in the USA was 50.1 (down -7.8% year-over-year).

 

But, if you’re being honest about everything that’s crashed (so far) in 2015 (Foreign Currencies, Oil, Commodities, Emerging Markets, Energy/Basic Material Stocks, etc.), you might just be subtly cautious about buying expensive stocks at their all-time highs.

 

To my sell-side competition, the effect of everything I’ve been signaling all year long is as invisible to them today as it was in November of 2007. And I’m totally cool with that. It’s what makes a market.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.06-2.38%

SPX 2050-2095
RUT 1149--1205
USD 97.68-99.55
EUR/USD 1.07-1.09
Copper 2.19-2.30

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Invisible Shoots - Chart of the Day


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%

REPLAY: Healthcare Earnings Review with Tom Tobin | $HOLX $ATHN $VRX & MORE

Our Healthcare Team hosted a live presentation reviewing earnings season for their top names in their Position Monitor including AHS, ZBH, HOLX, CSLT, ATHN, and CPSI. 

 

Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and analyst Andrew Freedman also discussed data updates related to their #ACATaper theme and noteworthy takeaways from the October jobs report.  

 

Tom's slides are available HERE.

 

 


INVITE | GOLD FLUSH? Materials Sector Launch Call (NEM, ABX, GOLD Miners)

INVITE | GOLD FLUSH? Materials Sector Launch Call (NEM, ABX, GOLD Miners) - L.T. Gold Price Chart

 

We are hosting a kick-off call for Hedgeye Materials coverage on Thursday, November 12th at 1:00 P.M., and will illustrate our investment process in the Gold Mining industry.

                    

Gold Bugs Bitten:  Gold prices in dollars have declined since 2011, despite two incremental rounds of quantitative easing and perpetual zero interest rates.  US long bonds have performed well in a similar environment.  What are the gold bugs missing?  We’ll put forth our data-driven take in our Materials launch deck.

 

Differentiated Sector Approach: The Materials coverage team of Jay VanSciver and Ben Ryan applies our experience in cyclicals, macroeconomics, and commodities to produce Best-Idea focused, process-driven Materials sector research. 

 

Our research process has three key components:

  • Structural Weakness/Strength: Identify structural vulnerability or resiliency in commodity related business (e.g. over/under capacity, demand susceptibility, deteriorating/improving structural position) that should have a dominant impact on market prices.
  • Unidentified Supply/Demand Changes:  We then look within those industries to see if consensus estimates for production or consumption are likely to prove incorrect based on our data-driven proprietary forecasts ranges.
  • Identify Companies Valued Inappropriately Relative To Forecast:  Deep-dive company specific valuation work oriented toward finding effective exposure our broader commodity thesis.  We align with our firm's top-down macro view when applicable.

 

Coverage To Broaden: While we believe the Gold Mining Industry provides a clear platform to demonstrate our process, our coverage will expand in coming quarters to areas where we see the best alpha opportunities.  We plan to host at least one Best Ideas call per quarter and to publish daily/weekly sector highlights, in addition to key research notes.

 

Call Details:

 

Toll Free:

Toll:

Confirmation Number: 13623545

Presentation Link: Materials Launch

 

As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to . Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the call shortly after it concludes.


November 10, 2015

We've made some updates and enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges. You'll now receive risk ranges for 20 tickers each day -  the last five of which will be determined by what's flashing on Keith's screen and by what names you're asking about. Contact support@hedgeye.com if you have any questions or feedback.

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
2.38 2.06 2.36
SPX
S&P 500
2,050 2,095 2,078
RUT
Russell 2000
1,149 1,205 1,184
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,038 5,177 5,095
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
18,996 19,735 19,642
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,527 10,990 10,815
VIX
Volatility Index
14.80 18.94 16.52
DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
97.68 99.55 99.08
EURUSD
Euro
1.07 1.09 1.07
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
121.29 123.74 123.18
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
43.08 45.99 44.11
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.20 2.40 2.31
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,073 1,120 1,091
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.19 2.30 2.23
AAPL
Apple Inc.
116 123 120
PCLN
Priceline.com Inc.
1,290 1,379 1,311
VRX
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
71.01 96.39 85.41
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corp.
82.21 89.41 88.62
RAX
Rackspace Hosting Inc.
26.81 30.02 27.09
GPS
Gap, Inc.
25.49 29.13 27.69

 

 


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