USD, Reflation and Gold

Client Talking Points

USD

USD on the lows here with EUR/USD signaling immediate-term overbought (as are most of the reflation trades) at $1.13; like the June drop in USD, this one is ripping one heck of a reflation trade to lower-highs with the big move behind us now.

REFLATION

For the MONTH to-date, Energy stocks (XLE) which remain in long-term TAIL risk crash mode are +13.4% and Basic Materials (XLB) are +10.7% (vs. Healthcare +2.9%). Since most of the big $$ couldn’t have been positioned to miss the #Deflation and capture all the #Reflation, this makes this trade as emotional as they get – it has nothing to do with demand.

GOLD

Fortuitously, we expressed our bearish Employment cycle view in long Commodities/Gold terms (we didn’t have it in us to signal buy on Energy stocks) but now that trade is signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought inasmuch as the stocks keying off them are. We’d book some Gold gains and short Oil here on USD oversold.

 

**Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Director of Research Daryl Jones at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

 

Asset Allocation

CASH 65% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 5%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GIS

Our Consumer Staples team remains positive on General Mills coming out of the 2Q15 earnings call. We have been LONG GIS for the last six months and continue to have a favorable view of the company due to the following reasons:

  • Sequential improvement in cereal
  • Growth in Natural & Organic categories
  • Snacking
  • Cost cutting initiatives
  • M&A activity
PENN

Many of the regional gaming states will release September revenues next week and as we’ve written about, they should look a lot better than August. Overall same store revenue declined 5% in August (we had predicted –2%) but most of the decline was due to the calendar and a difficult comparison. For September we are projecting an increase of 2% YoY

 

Our Missouri tracker is forecasting September gaming revenues to be up 3.6% YoY. This is a 6% sequential improvement from August's YoY change of -2.5%. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania slot revenues were up 4% in September. Our thesis for a sequential rebound in September remains intact. We like PENN on the long side from these levels.

TLT

It was an important couple of weeks for those who were still wrestling with our lower-for-longer views. The brevity of the macro moves post-report Friday proves just how non-consensus that call remains in a year where the S&P 500 is down -8%. The scary thing with regard to Janet’s credibility is that bad news is now being priced in as bad news. Moreover, we believe this late-cycle weakness is likely to remain ongoing. 

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

The @hedgeye global GDP growth estimate is half of consensus.  Yes, friends, winter is coming.

@HedgeyeDJ

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I never decide whether it's time to retire during training camp.

Bob Christian

STAT OF THE DAY

The National Retail Federation forecasts Holiday Sales to increase 3.7%, vs. +4.1% last year.