Black Box Sales, Traffic
Black Box released same-restaurant sales and traffic estimates for the month of August that showed slight improvement sequentially, although still down YoY. Same-restaurant sales grew to +1.7% up 10bps sequentially, but down 40bps YoY and same-restaurant traffic decreased -1.1%, a 10bps sequential improvement, and down 60 bps YoY.
Restaurant price increases are continuing to taper off, after the nearly 12-months of increases. Not surprisingly, after the last three months of flat to down pricing, traffic is continuing to accelerate month over month. As you can see from the chart below, the divergence between the operators taking price and a decline in traffic is reversing and it looks like they are headed to cross again. In August there was a continuation of the uptick in traffic we saw in July, although slightly less of a sequential improvement.
Knapp August Sales Trends
Knapp reported that comparable restaurant sales in August 2015 were +0.9% for same-store sales and -1.0% for guest counts. August comparable restaurant sales represent a sequential acceleration of +50bps, additionally traffic sequentially is up 30bps for the month. On a 2-year basis, sales accelerated to +0.8% and traffic decelerated at a slower pace, down -1.5%.
Employment Growth Slowing
In the month of August we saw a marked improvement in the employment trend, driven by growth within the 20-24 YOA cohort. The downward trend that we were concerned about seems to have reversed; continued growth among younger workers is encouraging for the quick service segment. The losses among the 45-54 YOA cohort continued in this month, down -0.43% YoY and -24bps sequentially.
August Employment Growth Data:
Please call or e-mail with any questions.
Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox
By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.
On Fox Business this morning, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discuss the current 2016 presidential race, Trump's ascent (Hillary Clinton's descent), the migrant crisis in Europe and what all of it all means with host Maria Bartiromo.
On a recent edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough laments the downfall of American exceptionalism and evolution, particularly on Wall Street.
Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes.
Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.