Euro, Commodities and Yields

Client Talking Points

EURO

Big part of the bounce was rumoring from the Europeans that ECB President Mario Draghi is going to deliver the devaluation wood @JacksonHole – we don’t doubt that (FX market didn’t either, $1.16 EUR/USD became $1.13, fast) – that is the catalyst when growth is slowing, moarrr #cowbell.

COMMODITIES

Pretty much everything that crashed (China +5.3% this morning, WTI +4.2%, etc.) is “off the lows” as they say – don’t forget to understand/contextualize the bounces (and why we had the crashes). The CRB Index hit a new low yesterday of 185 (-20%, since May).

  

UST 10YR

Wasn’t it just U.S. Yields that bounced on the “risk on” trade yesterday; German and Swiss Yields popped (off their lows) too – stay with the #process and respect the range – UST 10yr Yield’s = 1.98-2.19% right now and a dovish Fischer (like Dudley) gets us paid Long Treasuries.

 

**Tune into The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00AM ET - CLICK HERE

Asset Allocation

CASH 70% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 2%
FIXED INCOME 28% INTL CURRENCIES 0%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MCD

One of the ways that McDonald's is going to take market share back is through one of the most popular items on its menu—the Egg McMuffin. "I honestly believe that if there is a silver bullet, it’s all day breakfast for McDonald’s," says Restaurants Sector Head Howard Penney. "And I do believe they’re going down that road and they will do it."

 

Penney adds that we’ll probably know more about that at the November analyst meeting and what the breakfast potential will be. There’s obviously a lot of things that go around MCD doing breakfast (e.g. shrinking other parts of the menu, etc).

PENN

"We continue to like Penn National Gaming here due to stable regional gaming trends, better than expected quarterly and annual earnings, and the Plainridge and Jamul contribution to PENN’s two-year growth story," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan. 

TLT

It was a very good week for those sitting behind the long-bond coming out of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday. During a tumultuous 5-day stretch in which the S&P 500 fell over -5%, subscribers who followed our recommendation on TLT were sheltered from the market storm and gained almost +2%. Moreover, during the past month, TLT has gained +5.7% versus a -6.8% loss for the S&P 500 (a 1,200 basis point difference). In other words, it has paid handsomely to buck the consensus tide.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

The Grand Central Planning Experiment Gone Bad https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUdTw-Hh3aw&feature=youtu.be

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

The phrase I can't is the most powerful force of negation in the human psyche.

Paul R. Scheele

STAT OF THE DAY

A study found that traffic congestion cost Americans $160 billion in wasted time and fuel last year.


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"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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