A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement

Editor’s Note: Below is an abridged commentary culled from various tweets posted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shortly after today’s Fed announcement.

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A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - Yellen cartoon 09.17.2014NEW

 

BREAKING: no change #FOMC

 

Anyone who understands cyclical growth slowing and deflation understands that the Fed made the right move. If they were to hike into a slowdown, they would be the catalyst for the next US recession.

 

Hedgeye reiterates the Slower (and Lower) for longer view

 

For those of you who were calling for the SEP hike = #wrong

 

"hike appropriate when we have labor and INFLATION improvement" July = #Deflation

 

We are just one more bad jobs report away from no DEC hike either.

 

USD and Rates should probably stay higher into what the manic media will read as a "good" GDP.  Don't trade the headline - look for the next catalyst.

 

I guess the Fed thinks Oil crashing (-22% in the last month) is "stability." Here's a chart of Oil instability (OVX = 30-40, sustained!) 

 

A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - z keith oil chart

 

Newsflash: the "pace of job gains" always peaks at the end of an economic cycle. Non-farm payroll "pace" of gains stopped accelerating in FEB. 

 

A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - z keith nfp chart

 

In other news, Biotech $IBB -1.9% on an up day - hyper growth expectations finally slowing too.

 

Where the real action is at today is on the "easy money" trade - Housing $ITB ripping +1.6%

 

This is the joke that has become Wall St selling "bullish economic" research- stocks only fly on slowing economic news!