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The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 25th of May through the 29th of May is full of critical releases and events.  Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 05.22.15 Week Ahead



Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked]

This is a complimentary look at Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. It was published this morning at 8:21am ETClick here to learn more and subscribe. 

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide2

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide3

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide4

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide5

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide6

 Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide7

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide8

BEARISH TRENDS

Keith's Daily Trading Ranges [Unlocked] - Slide9


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LEISURE LETTER (05/22/2015)

TICKERS: 27.HK, MGM, BYD, SGMS, H, RCL

EVENTS

  • May 25: 11pm - Aristocrat 1H 2015 earnings: (; pw: 8770122)
  • May 28: MGM Annual General Meeting: Proxy "Fight"
  • June 4- CCL: special press announcement in NYC

headline news

Macau visitation falls again - Visitor arrivals decreased by 3.4% YoY. The average length of stay of visitors decreased by 0.1 day YoY to 0.9 day. Visitors from Mainland China decreased by 6.4% YoY, with those traveling under the Individual Visit Scheme rising slightly by 0.5%. Visitors from Hong Kong and Taiwan increased by 3.0% and 11.0%, respectively. Guangdong visitors fell 3% while Beijing and Shanghai fell 10% and 13%, respectively. 

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Fewer visitors, shrinking length of stay. And this is before the supply onslaught.  Base mass will continue to be pressured.

 

LEISURE LETTER (05/22/2015) - m1

 

LEISURE LETTER (05/22/2015) - m2

COMPANY NEWS  

Galaxy- Galaxy will get 150 new gaming tables for its HKD19.6-billion (US$2.5-billion) Galaxy Macau Phase 2 property, said Macau’s Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lionel Leong Vai Tac. Leong told reporters that the government’s decision was made based on the new non-gaming features to be offered by Galaxy Macau Phase 2 and sister property Broadway at Galaxy Macau, both opening on May 27 in the city’s Cotai district. The official added these features would help diversify the city’s tourism offering. 

 

Leong stated that the allocation of 150 new tables to the project complied with Macau’s table cap system. He added that Galaxy could move around its overall table inventory between properties better to meet the firm’s operational needs. Leong added that the Macau government had not received requests for more gaming tables from any of the other five casino operators in the territory.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Didn't MPEL submit a request for tables at Studio City? 

 

SJM - Following the resumption of construction works in the renovation of the former Casino Jai Alai earlier this month, the property opening date has now been postponed to after 1Q 2016 instead of this year, the chief executive of SJM Ambrose So Shu Fai said. “There has been a delay in the issuance of [the construction] permit to Jai Alai; but two to three weeks ago, we already received permission,” So explained.  “The property will open next year but by the first quarter it may not be ready. So the opening date will be later than that,” So added.

 

A total of some HK$1 billion (US$129 million) has to be invested in the Jai Alai revamped project, So said.  In the 2014 annual report filed on March 31, SJM said the firm had entered into capital commitments in connection with the revamp project – named ‘Jai Alai Palace’ - for a total value of about HK$657 million.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Higher capex and delayed opening for Jai Alai

 

SJM - CEO Ambrose So says that VIP business has been down 30 to 40% in the past few months and he doesn’t know if it has hit the bottom yet. So said that gaming tables in VIP rooms that are no longer in use would be transferred to the mass market to adjust to market changes. However, he pointed out that although there has been a slight growth in the mass market, the growth has “not been enough to fill the gap left by the VIP [market]”. According to So, just “one or two” VIP rooms have closed down at SJM so far.

ARTICLE HERE

 

MGM - MGM Resorts International filed an application with the Public Utilities Commission to purchase power without the state's dominant utility, NV Energy. MGM's application follows the filings this month of Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands, highlighting an attempt at mass departure by the state's influential companies and sparking a debate about consumer choice and protecting ratepayers from higher power bills. Caesars is expected to submit an application in the coming days.  

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Strip operators trying to save money on utilities. 

 

Paradise - is aiming to sell about 1,000 more live multi-game (LMG) machines in Macau this year, while deploying 700 of such machines in the US market, the company's chairman, Jay Chun said.


The company currently has over 3,500 live multi-game machines installed in 16 casinos in Macau. Chun said that Galaxy Macau Phase II, opening in less than a week, is also one of the clients that his firm is targeting to sell up to 1,000 LMGs.

ARTICLE HERE

 

BYD-  issued its $750 million, 6.875 percent senior notes due 2023. Proceeds will be used to repay its 9.125 percent senior notes due 2018.

Takeaway: The transaction allows BYD to lock in a lower borrowing rate and have more flexibility on their balance sheet.

 

SGMS- renewed its contract for its instant games and cooperative services program for four more years with De Lotto, the national lottery of the Netherlands.

 

H - invested in onefinestay, a closely held company that enables travelers to rent upscale private homes, the rare instance of a major hotel operator aligning with the burgeoning home-rental industry. Onefinestay matches homeowners looking to rent their residences in London, New York, Los Angeles and Paris with travelers. It manages a portfolio of more than 2,500 homes with a combined value of more than $5 billion, said the company. It is unclear how much Hyatt invested in onefinestay, but a person familiar with the matter said it was part of a nearly $40 million round of funding that was completed at the end of last year.

Takeaway: Hyatt is taking the right step in investing in the home-rental business. Despite mired in legal challenges, home rental companies, highlighted by AirBnB and Homeaway, is a real threat to the hotel industry.

 

RCL - Allure of the Seas emerged from its 18-day drydock at Navantia with 10 new suites, a revamped Izumi Hibachi & Sushi restaurant, a Sabor Taqueria & Tequila Bar, a Coastal Kitchen and new boutiques.

ARTICLE HERE

INDUSTRY NEWS 

SK Cruise- A South Korean government ministry is facing resistance from vested interests inside the country and a lukewarm response from another department in its bid to enable local citizens to gamble aboard cruise ships flying the national flag, reports Yonhap News Agency.

 

Critics say the proposal amounts in effect to backsliding on a near-nationwide ban on locals gambling. That policy applies specifically to land-based casinos. The ministry promoting the local casino cruise ships idea says there would be tough rules to protect citizens from harm and that South Korean citizens are already using foreign cruise ships for such activities.

 

According to Yonhap, Maritime Minister Yoo Ki-june, from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, said locals using such South Korean cruise ships would only be allowed to gamble for five to six hours at most per day while the ships are sailing in international waters. The maximum betting amount for individuals would be below US$100 for a five-day trip, the report added.

ARTICLE HERE 

 

Atlantic City - Millennials want to party, not gamble in Atlantic City. Customer surveys conducted for the alliance last fall showed that young singles strongly identify with the city’s nightlife, but they were worried the casino closings had robbed them of their entertainment hotspots. “The closed facilities were of concern,” the survey concluded. “Nightlife was a driver of their trips.”

 

Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa, known for its cutting-edge entertainment, is building a $15 million expansion that includes an outdoor concert venue opening in June and a new nightclub that will make its debut at year’s end.

ARTICLE HERE

Takeaway: Bad demographics plaguing US gaming nationwide

 

MACRO

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.


May 22, 2015

May 22, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

May 22, 2015 - Slide9


Dollar Down, Rates Down, Commodities Up

Client Talking Points

UST 10YR

UST 10YR Yield is straight back down to where it started 2015 (2.17%) after every Bond Bear cried wolf again on the moving monkey “breakout” in bond yields – this has been going on for 17 months now and it’s for one very basic reason = Wall Street’s growth expectations remain too high, especially on #LateCycle factors like employment, wages, and capex.

GOLD

If you want to find the love we had for Gold in 2010-2011, you want to find Waldo on U.S. growth expectations pushing the Fed out to 2016 and beyond on “rate hikes” – Gold loves nothing more than the Big Mac Combo of Down Dollar, Down Rates – you have both this morning, and a nice +0.7% move for Gold with no resistance to $1240. 

CHINA

If you’re as bearish on Global Growth as we are, you probably own a ton of Chinese Equity exposure – if you only buy stocks when the growth data gets really bad, China is the poster child for that. The Shanghai Composite Casino ramps another +2.8% overnight to +44.2% year-to-date, crushing Macau gaming revenues as margin brokers rock the timestamps.

Asset Allocation

CASH 48% US EQUITIES 4%
INTL EQUITIES 8% COMMODITIES 12%
FIXED INCOME 26% INTL CURRENCIES 2%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
VNQ

One way to invest in Lower-For-Longer, from an equity perspective, is being long U.S. REITS (VNQ). The reality is that we are in a #LateCycle slowdown and the jockeying around each incremental data point will continue to get more and more intense as the Fed’s only ammo for suspending the cycle that has unfolded many times over is to push out the dots on a rate hike. #LowerForLonger.

ITB

The ITB turned in modest positive absolute and relative performance in the latest week as the advance in interest rates ebbed and the high frequency mortgage purchase application data continued to reflect improving housing demand trends. This is a data heavy week for housing. NAHB Builder Confidence dropped for the 4th time in 5 months, dipping -2pts sequentially in May to an Index reading of 54.   Confidence currently sits +9 pts higher than May of last year and is basically right on the average reading of 55 observed over the last three expansionary periods.  Further, at  the current reading of 54, the index remains well above the Better-Worse Mendoza line of 50, signaling builders continue to view conditions favorably.

TLT

The counter-TREND moves in the USD and commodities have been extensive and now confirmed: 1) U.S. Dollar: Down another 1.20% week-over-week to complete its BULLISH to BEARISH TREND Reversal. The dollar is now BULLISH on a TAIL duration (three years or less) and BEARISH on a TREND duration (3-Months or more) 2) CRB Index: +2.0% week-over-week and +5.5% 1-Month Change. The CRB is now BULLISH on a TREND duration and BEARISH on a TAIL duration.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Is the Government Lying To You? I Weigh In on The Macro Show https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/44235-is-the-government-lying-about-the-economy-mccullough-weighs-in-on-the… via @hedgeye

@KeithMcCullough

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

With freedom, books, flowers, and the moon, who could not be happy?

Oscar Wilde

STAT OF THE DAY

The returns of the S&P 500 from peak cycle (April 15th, 2000) to the 2002 cycle low was -43% (moving from 1,356.56 to 776.76).


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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