LEISURE LETTER (05/12/2015)

Tickers:  WYNN



  • May 13 - IGT 1Q CC 8am, ; PW: 2660253

  • May 14 - Genting Singapore 1Q CC  6am

  • May 14 - Macau Legend Development 1Q CC 8:30pm


WYNN - The largest individual shareholder, T.Rowe Price, in Wynn Resorts Ltd has cut its stake by almost 40%, according to a filing to Nasdaq on Monday. TRowe now holds 10.4 million shares of WYNN, down from ~17.1 million it held .


 Takeaway: Long only's finally capitulating in Macau stocks?


GC.CN - Great Canadian Gaming to acquire Casino New Brunswick for ~$95M. The purchase price represents an acquisition multiple of approximately 8.0x – 8.5x the casino's 2014 normalized EBITDA. Closing is expected to occur in fall of 2015.


Universal Entertainment - The Philippine gaming regulator (PAGCOR) has confiscated a PHP100-million (US$2.2 million) guarantee payment from Tiger Resort, Leisure and Entertainment Inc – developer of casino resort Manila Bay Resorts (pictured in a rendering) – citing delays in the project.


Francis Hernando, VP of PAGCOR said that the provisional gaming licence is in danger of being suspended because Tiger Resort has not met the minimum requirement of 50 percent project completion by the March 2015 deadline.

In February, Tiger Resort sought for an extension of the deadline to the second quarter of 2017, citing changes in the design of the casino project – a request denied by Pagcor, the news agency reports.


Takeaway: Okada's Philippines project is in serious trouble.


Viking - Delivery of Viking Sky has been rescheduled from June 2016 to February 2017.


Singapore licenses - Singapore has "no plans" currently to offer additional casino licenses when the moratorium on such licences expires in 2017, Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry Lee Yi Shyan said yesterday.


The Government will instead focus on working with the two integrated resorts (IRs) to ensure their attractions and services continue to meet the needs of Singaporeans and enhance the country's tourism appeal, he added in Parliament.



Macau Cash Handouts - The head of the Social Welfare Bureau, Iong Kong Io, said yesterday that the government does not intend to bring an end to its cash handout program next year, Radio Macau reported. “I don’t think the cash handout program will be canceled. The government is assessing this matter according to its budget; so the cash handout value will either decrease or be maintained,” he stated.



Iowa SS April Gaming Revs: -2% YoY


Puerto Vallarta port calls canceled - Civil unrest and violence around Puerto Vallarta led to cruise lines canceling ship calls there.



Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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