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BOBE: CLOSING BEST IDEA LONG

We added Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) to our Best Ideas list on 05/02/2014 at $47.21/share, as we believed Sandell had identified feasible opportunities to enhance shareholder value.  Unfortunately, recent developments have fallen well short of our expectations.  With this note we are removing Long BOBE from both our Best Ideas list and Investment Ideas list.

In our view, Bob Evans is in much better shape today than it was when we initially added it as a long idea.  Our thesis, however, was predicated on one or two of several potential catalysts coming to fruition: including: a sale of BEF Foods, a real estate transaction, and substantial SG&A cuts. 

 

Yesterday, we learned that the company has no plans, at this time, to pursue a separation of the BEF Foods business and that it has identified $35 million of potential annual cost savings that will be realized over a three year time frame.  Both of these announcements are, in our view, disappointing.  The company also announced that is currently reviewing the potential for real estate transactions and other changes to its capital structure, but gave us little clarity on the possibility or timing of these events.

 

Given 3Q15 results, it’s clear that the stock has gotten far ahead of the fundamentals of the underlying business and the path to unlocking shareholder value will be more painful than originally anticipated.


The Yen, Euro and UST 10YR

Client Talking Points

YEN

Out of the majors, Japan reported the weakest Services PMI in the world last night at 48.5 for FEB (vs. 51.3 JAN) – that’s got to be good for some more Yen Burning and Weimar Nikkei bubbling. Looking to buy more Japanese stocks on that economic weakness, and the sad thing is that we’re not kidding – still looking for YEN 135 vs. USD intermediate-term.

EURO

Burn baby burn as EUR/USD probes a fresh year-to-date lows at $1.11 this morning now that most of the European PMI data was flat to slower. Italy reported one of the weaker Services PMI’s (50.0 vs 51.2 last month), so of course the Italian stock market is up on that in a down European equity tape! The ECB meeting is tomorrow.

UST 10YR

Unless someone has the jobs report in hand, we don’t know why bond yields are up this week (if we did, we would have told you to sell some Long Bond exposure pre the pullback). The UST 10YR Yield risk range is still wide at 1.88-2.17%; yields up on a good jobs report; down fast on a bad one – stay tuned. 

Asset Allocation

CASH 41% US EQUITIES 10%
INTL EQUITIES 10% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 9%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
YUM

Our bullish thesis on Yum! Brands is slowly becoming more mainstream, as activist talk has recently heated up. Management implemented a shareholder friendly amendment to the company’s by-laws that will permit a shareholder, or group of shareholders, with 3% or more ownership of common stock (for three years or more), to nominate directors representing up to 20% of the board. This is good news for several reasons: 1) an activist may be involved in the name 2) shareholders are speaking up 3) management is feeling the pressure and 4) management is open to adopting more shareholder friendly policies. We continue to believe there is significant upside here despite the stock’s strong recent outperformance.  This stock is one major announcement away from hitting $95.

PENN

Penn National Gaming is the best way to play improving domestic regional gaming trends due to its superior operational management and unit growth opportunities. Catalysts include positive estimate revisions, the opening of the first Massachusetts casino in June, and industry leading earnings growth in 2015 and 2016.

TLT

Low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT) have plenty of room to run. Late-Cycle Economic Indicators are still deteriorating on a TRENDING Basis (Manufacturing, CapEX, inflation) while consumption driven numbers have improved. Inflation readings for January are #SLOWING. We saw deceleration in CPI year-over-year at +0.8% vs. +1.3% prior and month-over-month at -0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. Growth is still #SLOWING with Real GDP growth decelerating at -20 basis points to +2.5% year-over-year for Q4 2014.The GDP deflator decelerated -40 basis points to +1.2% year-over-year.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

FLASHBACK | The Bear Case on $BABA: What The Street Is Still Missing https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/42722-flashback-baba-what-the-street-is-missing-on-alibaba

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, ‘I’m possible!

-Audrey Hepburn

STAT OF THE DAY

Android operating devices account for about 52% of the devices in the U.S. (compared to iOS at 42%), but only account for 22% of mobile sales.


CHART OF THE DAY: #Draghi and #Kuroda's Mathematically Impossible Monetary Policy

CHART OF THE DAY: #Draghi and #Kuroda's Mathematically Impossible Monetary Policy - 03.04.15 chart

 

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more about becoming a subscriber.

 

The inverse correlation of burning Euros and Yens to their respective country stock markets is surreal (inverse meaning when FX drops, stocks rip higher). And, as you can see in the Chart of The Day (this is slide 8 in our current Global #Deflation deck), we continue to see it as mathematically impossible that either Draghi or Kuroda will achieve their monetary-math “inflation” targets.

 


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Invest In Yourself

“The best investment you’ll likely ever make is in yourself.”

-Cullen Roche

 

That’s one of the better quotes from the latest book I am reviewing: Pragmatic Capitalism, by Cullen Roche. While the book has underwhelmed me so far, there’s usually something positive to see in people – if you look hard enough.

 

This week is a big stressor for me in that we are holding tryouts for our Mid Fairfield and CT Junior Rangers hockey programs. The hardest thing to do isn’t reporting who are the best players on the ice; it’s evaluating which ones have the most potential.

 

That’s not unlike how I think about investing. Anyone on mainstream TV can tell me what’s worked. What I really need to get right is what’s going to start working next.

Invest In Yourself - Central banker cartoon 03.03.2015

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

The biggest risk management question I’m thinking about right now is whether or not the phase transition (from late-cycle bullish at this time last year, to bearish now) of Global #Deflation is going to accelerate to the downside.

 

If you look one screen past the commodity headlines (Oil and Gold), this is what you were looking at yesterday:

 

  1. Orange Juice -7% on the day to -16.9% YTD
  2. Coffee prices down another -6.6% on the day to -24.2% YTD #crashing
  3. Hogs (as in pigs) -2.4% on the day to -18.7% YTD

 

Mortimer! Get me some #deflation in my breakfast already!

 

Will you see that #deflation on your local diner (or SBUX) menu? Of course not. At least not in real-time. Companies that had food cost accelerating to the all-time highs (2012 was the all-time high for corn prices as Bernanke was devaluing USD) are finally seeing some of those cost pressures alleviate. Local dinner guy’s healthcare and other costs, not so much…

 

But what about the poor bastard who is selling pigs?

 

Yes, this whole #deflation thing has winners and losers. #Deflation pays the conservative consumer, whereas it punishes the levered-up debtor whose revenues and cash flows are pinned on higher inflation expectations!

 

Q: What horse does the Wall Street have in this consumer vs. debtor debate?

A: higher inflation expectations + leverage + banking fees generated by both

 

In other causal Global #Deflation news, don’t forget that the two most important live quotes on your screen continue to tick this morning. Those are, of course, currency quotes:

 

  1. Burning Euros
  2. Burning Yens

 

In order to get the rate of change in Global #Deflation right, you need to get the US Dollar right. And… in order to get the US Dollar’s rate of change right, you need to front-run the devaluation policies of its major competing currencies, alright?

 

  1. Euros (vs. USD) are being blown up to fresh YTD lows this morning (-7.3% for 2015) at $1.11
  2. Yens (vs. USD) can’t find a bid after Japan reported the worst Services PMI in the world overnight

 

Services PMI? Yep. It’s one of the many monthly macro economic data points we pop into the Hedgeye Predictive Tracking Algorithm (the model we built that helps us front run bond yields, central planners, etc.) … and voila, le rate of change appears!

 

  1. Japanese Services PMI slowed to 48.5 in FEB vs. 51.3 in JAN
  2. Italian Services PMI slowed to 50.0 in FEB vs. 51.2 in JAN
  3. German Services PMI was 54.7 in FEB vs. 55.5 in JAN

 

“So”, Italian stocks are up on that (German stocks are down) to +15.8% YTD. #lol

 

It’s funny, sort of, but sad … all at the same time. The worse the Japanese and Southern European economies (i.e. the most levered debtor countries) get, the better their stock markets get, as the entire world front-runs their central planners burning their respective currencies in response.

 

The inverse correlation of burning Euros and Yens to their respective country stock markets is surreal (inverse meaning when FX drops, stocks rip higher). And, as you can see in the Chart of The Day (this is slide 8 in our current Global #Deflation deck), we continue to see it as mathematically impossible that either Draghi or Kuroda will achieve their monetary-math “inflation” targets.

 

That’s a lot to noodle over as you try to invest in your own noodle. But setting aside what we get right and wrong both in markets and on the ice, that’s the best way to invest in yourself in this good life – to educate yourself empowers your progress and potential.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.88-2.17%

SPX 2083-2121
Nikkei 185
VIX 13.03-16.33
USD 94.51-95.94
EUR/USD 1.11-1.13
YEN 118.54-120.36

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Invest In Yourself - 03.04.15 chart


March 4, 2015

March 4, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

March 4, 2015 - Slide2

March 4, 2015 - Slide3

March 4, 2015 - Slide4

March 4, 2015 - Slide5

March 4, 2015 - Slide6

 

BEARISH TRENDS

March 4, 2015 - Slide7

March 4, 2015 - Slide8

March 4, 2015 - Slide9

March 4, 2015 - Slide10

March 4, 2015 - Slide11
March 4, 2015 - Slide12

March 4, 2015 - Slide13


Spurious Correlations

This note was originally published at 8am on February 18, 2015 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance.  Strong men believe in cause and effect.” 

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

If you are human, when the global macro market correlations go against your position, you undoubtedly classify them as spurious.  After all, they don’t fit your thesis, so how else can they be classified?

 

In reality, when we think of spurious correlations, we think of things that have no business or rationale in being correlated.  We’ll give you a few examples:

 

  • From 1990 to 2009, the inverse correlation between honey producing bee colonies in the U.S. was -0.93 inversely correlated to juvenile arrests for marijuana;
  • From 1990 to 2010, the positive correlation between people who drowned falling out of a fishing boat in the United States with the marriage rate in Kentucky was +0.95;
  • And last but not least . . . from 2000 to 2009, the per capita consumption of mozzarella cheese was +0.96 correlated with civil engineering doctorates awarded in the United States.

 

Suffice it to say, not all correlations are created equal.

 

In yesterday’s Early Look, Keith highlighted the fact that some of our macro views that are highly correlated have been going against us for the last week or so – dollar down, oil up, Euro up, Russia up, Greece up, Brazil up . . . and the list goes on.  Versus say mozzarella and engineering degrees, these assets, even if we disagree with their recent price direction, have a lot more business being correlated.

 

Certainly, almost every asset and asset class has a price, but what we have seen in February remains a counter TREND move.  In our view, the underlying fundamental circumstance of global #deflation and slowing growth remains intact.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

Spurious Correlations - Hamlet cartoon 02.17.2015

Speaking of spurious, the most interesting central banking comments of the day award has to go to Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, who indicated he will potentially act if the drop in the price of oil continues to hurt his outlook for inflation and general price levels (read: his inflation statistics).  Since the Bank of Japan has bought almost every other asset available globally, perhaps the next move will be to lever up and buy oil futures!

 

On the topic of oil and counter trend moves, oil continues to be one of the more hotly contested asset classes globally.  After a decline of epic proportions, WTI is now up about 10% in the last month and this is, admittedly, on contract volume that is up about 61% versus the 3-month average.  Certainly, declining rig count in the U.S. and some level of short covering has helped, but what of production and future supply?  Interestingly, Wood Mackezie in a recent report noted the following per a Bloomberg article:

 

“. . . that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel. That suggests there won't be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.”

 

In Chart of the Day, we highlight weekly U.S. oil production in the U.S. going back to 1983 (as long as the data has been kept).  As you can see, weekly oil production in the U.S. hit its highest level in more than 32-years last week.  If Wood Mackenzie is correct, it seems we may not be done with #DrillBabyDrill just yet.

 

Inasmuch as oil bears want the bottom to be in for WTI, the chart is very telling.  Not only is oil production at a 32+ year high in the U.S., it is growing some 10% year-over-year.  Unfortunately, again for oil bulls, on the demand side, the outlook is not overly robust either, with U.S. oil demand at a more than 12-year low (as a % of GDP).

 

The nearest term catalyst for oil markets may well be in the April / May time frame in the U.S.  Based on projections of current production, it is expected that Cushing, and other U.S. repositories, may be at full capacity by then.  In theory, this may force producers to dump near term supplies on to the market at seriously discounted prices.  #Contango, anyone?

 

Switching commodity gears slightly, at 11am ET this morning, we will be hosting a call with Keith Barnett the Head of Fundamental Analysis from Asset Risk Management (http://asset-risk.com/author/kbarnett/ ) on the outlook for natural gas prices (he will also discuss oil).  If you don’t already have it and would like to get the dial in for the call, please email sales@hedgeye.com.  The key topics Barnett will discuss include:

  • Rapid growth in US production driven primarily by emergence of Marcellus / Utica shale play has created basis price dislocations as infrastructure and demand re-calibrate to new supply / demand regional balances;
  • Demand growth along the US Gulf Coast [industrial, LNG exports, and pipe exports to Mexico] create a “battle zone” for basis differentials to re-balance in 2016-2020, with the Haynesville waiting in the wings;
  • British Columbia / Northern Alberta shale plays will look for a home, especially if BC LNG exports continue to be delayed and lower crude prices dampen oil sands (gas demand) development; and
  • Lower crude prices will affect the supply side through reduced liquid-oriented gas, and the demand side by impacting petchem plant development, global LNG price arb, and Mexico project development.

 

We hope you can join the call.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.70-2.18%

SPX 2070-2110
Nikkei 17776-18236

VIX 14.35-19.33

EUR/USD 1.12-1.14

Oil (WTI) 48.37-54.02
Gold 1195-1232 

 

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Spurious Correlations - COD updated 2 18


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%
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