This is an excerpt from Hedgeye morning research. Click here to learn more about our products and how you can become a subscriber today.
Despite the 3-week counter-TREND reflation move in February, #deflation remains our Top Global Macro Theme right now. The Eurozone just reported lower-lows in CPI at -0.6% year-over-year and the U.S. is going to print another CPI miss on Thursday. Will Janet Yellen be as dovish as this data is going to get come June?
Stay tuned. Her forecasts are the problem.
On a related note, UST 10YR Yields finally backed off @Hedgeye resistance and remains bearish TREND ahead of both the Yellen comments and slowing CPI and GDP data on Thursday and Friday. The immediate-term risk range is now 1.85-2.16% and that made REITS the best sub-sector yesterday +0.7% vs. Oil & Gas stocks (XOP) -0.9%.