Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Macau government wants to impose a limit to the number of mainland tourists that visit the city, Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Alexis Tam Chon Weng announced. Mr Tam said tourists already swamp some areas of the city, which has a negative impact on the population’s daily life.
Mr Tam told reporters that the Macau government plans to soon discuss the issue with mainland’s central government. He said no cap had yet been decided and that limits could vary for different seasons of the year. Mr Tam added he hoped the cap could be introduced still this year.
The call to introduce a cap to the number of mainland tourists is not new in Macau. But previously the government had argued that the city still had capacity to welcome more tourists – authorities just needed to better manage the inflow of tourists by directing visitors to less-visited parts of the city.
Takeaway: This doesn't sound good. The profitable grind mass business would certainly be impacted. What kind of signal does this send regarding the government's desire to see the gaming industry succeed?
MGM - Pacman will fight Mayweather in a super fight at the MGM Grand on May 2.
Takeaway: It's on. Big win for MGM Grand albeit short term. Bigger win for boxing fans.
MPEL - Belle CFO Manuel Gana said from Q1-Q3 2014, the company booked P1.2 billion in revenue from the lease to Melco for CoD Manila. In 2013, Belle realized revenues of P1.3 billion from the lease. For this year, lease revenues from CoD Manila is expected to hit P1.4 billion.
Gana added that CoD Manila is now mainly catering to the Filipino and needs at least six months to attract high rollers from abroad. "Since soft opening, it's been primarily mass and premium mass [market]," he said.
The casino and hotel operations are now in full swing, but the retail business is likely to come on board by April. Asked if China's crackdown on gamers will impact its operations, Gana said "... it's an old story" and the development is spared since City of Dreams Manila is an integrated resort. "From what I understand, it does not affect VIPs. VIP junket operators do not use these offices. These offices are like tourists agencies. They try to attract new mass and premium mass customers. Some integrated resorts have tried to side step the issue by not using the word casino or promoting casino operations," he said. "They promote hotels, restaurants, theatrical productions and other entertainment productions."
Takeaway: For any new property, it will take time to ramp up. For the Philippines market, the locals is the most important consumer segment (70% of customers are locals/ 30% international (mostly big VIP, with Koreans the biggest segment).
SGMS - announced today that a patent infringement lawsuit against Bally Technologies, Inc.(formerly known as SHFL entertainment, Inc.) has been dismissed with prejudice by the United States District Court for the District of Nevada. The lawsuit was brought by TableMax IP Holdings, Inc., Table Max Gaming, Inc., and Vegas Amusement, Inc. (collectively "TableMax") in August 2009.
H - Hyatt Place Tijuana opens in Mexico.
Takeaway: Select service brands will drive Hyatt's unit growth in 2015
RCL - A suspected norovirus outbreak has left 95 passengers and seven crew members suffering from vomiting and diarrhea on Celebrity Equinox. The Celebrity Cruises’ vessel has 2,896 passengers on board and is returning to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, for sanitization after a 10 day cruise.
Takeaway: It's not official but February is Norovirus Month! This year, the headlines have been mostly RCL.
CCL- While Australia is currently the third largest source market for Seabourn, Tony Archbold, director of sales Australia, said it is closing the gap with the UK to become No. 2 after North America.
Visitation - The Public Security Police (PSP) has revealed that more than 1.72 million people crossed the Macau border checkpoints between February 18 and 22. Compared with CNY 2014, overall visitation is up 3.2% while Mainland Visitation is up 6.7% so far.
Takeaway: While a new record, CNY visitation growth is nothing spectacular.
Las Vegas – The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) Board of Directors has approved a contract for the purchase of the historic Riviera Hotel & Casino's 26-acre site as the cornerstone for its planned Las Vegas Global Business District (LVGBD). Under the agreement, the LVCVA will purchase the site for a total of $182.5 million. LVGBD is projected to bring 6,000 construction-period jobs to Southern Nevada, and the construction portion alone is projected to generate $3.6 billion in economic activity.
The $2.3 billion project is the largest economic development initiative the LVCVA has undertaken since the Las Vegas Convention Center was originally built in the late 1950s. The expansion project is expected to lead to an additional 480,000 new attendees as current conventions grow and through attracting an estimated 20 new trade shows and conventions.
Envisioned to be completed in two phases, the first phase focuses on the Riviera site and includes 750,000 square feet of new exhibit space and 187,500 square feet of supporting meeting space as part of the new 1.8-million-square-foot expansion.
Phase two focuses on renovating the existing convention center and includes a 100,000-square-foot general session space and another 100,000 square feet of meeting space. Including public areas and service areas, the expansion and renovation increase the facility from its current total footprint of 3.2 million square feet to nearly 5.7 million square feet. Once construction begins, the entire project is expected to take five to eight years to complete.
Takeaway: Biggest development for LV in years.
British Columbia Lottery Corp - expects to improve its bottom line this year thanks to an influx of high-rolling gamblers from mainland China. With lottery sales softening, the Crown corporation and its partner casinos on the Lower Mainland have focused on attracting wealthy “industrialists and businessmen” keen to play baccarat for up to $100,000 a hand.
Jim Lightbody, the corporation’s CEO, said the strategy has paid off in spades.
Total revenue from table games — including high-limit tables — is up nearly 20%, or $80 million, from last year, he said.
Takeaway: Big Chinese VIP gamblers also moving money to Canada.
S'pore CPI - Core inflation – which excludes changes in the price of private road transport and accommodation since these are influenced more by government policies – rose 1.0% YoY in January, down from the previous month's 1.5%. Looking ahead, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said inflation is expected to ease further, before rising in the second half of 2015.
Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.
Takeaway: European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.
Takeaway: Updated Hedgeye Retail Idea List. Wal-Mart wage hike extrapolated to other competitors, Kohl's is the most at risk.
HEDGEYE RETAIL IDEA LIST
JWN: Took off our long bench. The company is guiding to high single digit sales growth, and potentially a down year for earnings. A sandbag? Perhaps. But we can't prove that. And at 21x earnings and near trough short interest, we don't want to be near this one.
NKE: After CFO Don Blair announced his retirement, we booted NKE from our list of Core Long ideas. We always said that he was the ONLY person at Nike we'd be genuinely scared to see leave -- and it's not because of the respect he has earned by the Street. Without him, the organization is likely to change materially -- and we don't yet know if the resulting entity is one we'll like. For now, business is solid. But there's work to do on this name.
RL: We kicked this one to the long bench. A reactionary move -- the kind we never like to make. But the thesis was that after 2-years of investing, RL was accelerating sales, margins and ROIC. Not the case. Now entering another investing period -- by the time it's over, Mr. Lauren will be pushing 80 years. As with Nike, we need comfort on the organization structure here.
TGT: We moved this up a notch on our Short Idea List. While not expensive relative to the market (TGT is at 17x earnings), we think that cost pressures are building. Not just because of WMT's big pay hike. But because of the actions Cornell will have to take to rebuild TGT's long term growth trajectory.
EVENTS TO WATCH
Takeaway: We took the implied increase in annual pay for each Walmart employee, and extrapolated that to WMTs relevant competition for employees. That equates to about $1850 per employee. We think that's a fair estimate given that a bump from $7.25 (current minimum wage) to $9.00 per hour is equal to $3650 per year.
The most at risk:
West Coast Ports Deal Reached
TGT - Target sees initiative on organic, natural products to hit $1B in sales this year
Mall of America Heightens Security
RSH - Report: RadioShack cleared to sell 1,100 store leases
APP - American Apparel Fires Both of Its Creative Directors
WAG - Walgreens.com to offer patients drug 'reviews'
Prada to Open Vancouver Flagship
Chanel Unveils Rome Flagship
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
02/17/15 Post-Presidents’ Day Mashup
02/18/15 NDLS: Going In Short
02/20/15 NDLS: Wet Noodles
Monday, February 23rd
Tuesday, February 24th
Wednesday, February 25th
Thursday, February 26th
Friday, February 27th
Monday, February 16th
Wednesday, February 18th
Friday, February 20th
The XLY (+1.3%) outperformed the SPX (+1.0%) last week.
From a quantitative prospective, the XLY remains bullish on an intermediate-term TREND duration.
Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor". If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email
European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly tightened in Europe last week. Greek banks are once again in the spotlight with swaps tightening between -193 bps and -295 bps on news of a last minute, four-month extension to the country's bailout. Even with ~200 bps of tightening, Greek banks are still trading at 1 bps.
Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps mostly tightened over last week with dovish language from the U.S. Fed and an extension to Greece's bailout. Portuguese sovereign swaps tightened by -6.3% (-11 bps to 168 ) and Spanish sovereign swaps widened by 2.9% (3 bps to 107).
Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States. Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal. By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending. Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 10 bps.
Note: Using the z-score in the tables below as a coefficient of variation for standard error helps us flag the relative market positioning of the commodities in the CRB Index. It is not intended as a predictive signal for the reversion to trailing twelve month historical averages. For week-end price data, please refer to “Commodities: Weekly Quant” published at the end of the previous week. Feel free to ping us for additional color.
1. CFTC Net Futures and Options Positioning CRB Index: The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases “Commitments of Traders Reports” at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The release usually includes data from the previous Tuesday (Net Positions as of Tuesday Close), and includes the net positions of “non-commercial” futures and options participants. A “Non-Commercial” market participant is defined as a “speculator.” We observe the weekly marginal changes in the overall positioning of “non-commercial” futures and options positions to assess the directionally-biased capitulation risk among those with large, speculative positions.
2. Spot – Second Month Spread: Measures the market expectation for forward looking prices in the near-term.
3. Spot – 1 Year Spread: Measures the market expectation for forward-looking prices between spot and the respective contract expiring 1-year later.
4. Open Interest: Aggregate open interest measures the amount of opened positions in all actively traded futures contract months. Open interest can be thought of as “naked” or “directionally-biased” contracts as opposed to hedgers scalping and providing liquidity. Most of the open interest is created from large speculators or participants who are either: 1) Producers/sellers of the physical commodity hedging their cash market exposure or 2) Large speculators who are directionally-biased on price.
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