Retail Callouts (2/17): FL, NKE, UA, AdiBok, GIL, Ports

Takeaway: Our online traffic tracking shows the divergence continues between Athletic Footwear Brands and FL in January.

EVENTS TO WATCH

Retail Callouts (2/17): FL, NKE, UA, AdiBok, GIL, Ports - 2 17 chart2

 

 

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

NKE, UA, AdiBok, FL - Foot Locker vs Brands Online Traffic Divergence Continues

 

Takeaway: We've hit on this a lot lately, but based on the numbers we just pulled down it's worth rehashing.

 

1.       Brick and Mortar athletic footwear sales might never be up again. The way the math works, we'd need to see sales growth in excess of 6% across the industry in the US for us to see Brick and Mortar growth. The way our model works - we have online accounting for more than 100% of the growth over the next 6 years.
Retail Callouts (2/17): FL, NKE, UA, AdiBok, GIL, Ports - 2 17 chart3 B
2.       We think that growth accrues to the brands instead of the retailers. We've seen the verbiage at NKE change meaningfully over the past few quarters relating to e-comm. One of the big drivers of that is the margin opportunity. A direct sale for Nike comes in 20 percentage points higher than a typical wholesale transaction and the EBIT dollars are about 4x.
Retail Callouts (2/17): FL, NKE, UA, AdiBok, GIL, Ports - 2 17 chart4
3.       One of the biggest points of pushback we get as it relates to the shifting dynamics in the marketplace is, when? Our answer is right now. Over the past two quarters we've seen Nike's online business accelerate to +70% and +66% respectively. That marks the first time where Nike online sales growth has outpaced its wholesale partners.
4.       And it's not just Nike. We track the visitation statistics for about 250 retailers across 4 different providers. We stacked the brands (Nike, UA, and AdiBok) up against Foot Locker. This is the indexed trend in visitation by month. We saw a meaningful divergence in April of 2014 and that's continued to accelerate into January.
Retail Callouts (2/17): FL, NKE, UA, AdiBok, GIL, Ports - 2 17 chart1

 

 

OTHER NEWS

 

GIL - Gildan Activewear Announces Resignation of New CFO

(http://www1.gildan.com/corporate/downloads/Press%20Release_New%20CFO%20Resignation_EN_FINAL.pdf)
 

West Coast ports dispute drags on; labor secretary to intervene

(http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/16/us-usa-ports-west-idUSKBN0LK1XF20150216)

 

Obama makes strong appeal for public-private cooperation for cybersecurity

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/obama-makes-strong-appeal-public-private-cooperation-cybersecurity)

 


SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more