Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
To be balanced, the other side of the storytelling remains that US GDP growth is going to magically accelerate to +3-4% year-over-year, and that we’re going to get rainbows and puppy dogs delivered in every late-cycle employment report, throughout…
To a degree, Consensus Macro bets still agree with that – here’s the updated CFTC Futures/Options net positioning:
- SP500 (Index + Emini) net LONG position = +66,335 contracts (vs. the 1 yr avg of -10,119)
- Treasuries (10yr) net SHORT position = -145,402 contracts (vs. the 1yr avg of -65,444)
- Crude Oil net LONG position = +324,181 contracts (vs the 1yr avg of +365,957)
For 2015, unless you bought the lows, being long SP500 and commodity related beta has been painful, but consensus has worn it the whole way down inasmuch as it has suffered the under-performance pain of not being bullish on the Long Bond.