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Takeaway: January held high and VIP volumes remain depressed.


Macau gross gaming revenues (GGR) declined 17% YoY in January. While in line with our last forecast, January performed below our expectation at the beginning of the month. Gaming volumes deteriorated from Q4, seasonally adjusted. In other words, Macau trends worsened to start the year. Worse, extrapolating and seasonally adjusting the recent 3 month trend (October to December), February could be down 35% YoY and that would NOT be indicative of further deterioration of the underlying metrics. Optically, February will look very bad.

Please see our detailed note: