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December 31, 2014

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BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

 

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Hedgeye's McGough: Under Armour Scores Win Over Adidas with Andy Murray Deal | $UA

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from a recent research report written by Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough.

 

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Hedgeye's McGough: Under Armour Scores Win Over Adidas with Andy Murray Deal | $UA - andy

1-MINUTE TAKEAWAY from mcgough

 

At 27 years old, Andy Murray isn't quite a tennis dinosaur, but he's getting close. That said, this is still a coup for Under Armour which was able to steal him away from Adidas. The 4-year deal is just north of $5mm per year (about 2% of the company's 2014 projected marketing spend) and less than a half of a percent of total revenue. In other words, it's a drop in the bucket for UA. And it gives them a bonafide presence on the court.

 

The company's current lineup of athletes (Sloane Stephens and Robert Ginepri) don't spend a lot of time playing in front of a national TV crew. UA has been unafraid to diversify, trying its hand at everything from speed skating to supermodels, so tennis is a logical extension for the brand.

 

Bottom line: At the price that they are paying…this is a win for UA.


Two Words

This note was originally published at 8am on December 17, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Narrative is linear, but Action... having breadth and depth, as well as length - is solid.”

-Thomas Carlyle

 

This morning, the investing world is waiting on a critical two-word pronouncement from the Fed.  Sitting in my hotel room here in London, drinking a Red Bull (it’s 4:30am and the British don’t have any coffee ready!), it's difficult not to find the idea of many of us sitting and waiting on the edge of our seats for a small word change just a bit laughable.

 

According to Bloomberg:

 

“Sixty-eight percent of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg late last week said the Federal Open Market Committee will drop its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” and instead adopt a word such as “patient” to describe its approach to policy. Only 23 percent said the committee will keep “considerable time.”

 

On on hand, given how bad most economists are at predicting actual economic figures, opining on language in central bank statements might actually be a better use of their time.  But regardless there you go, if the Fed keeps “considerable time” in its policy statement, this will be perceived as dovish, and if it changes its language to “patient” this will be perceived as hawkish.

Two Words - Global economy cartoon 12.16.2014

There is also a tail scenario where the Fed does something completely different, but far be it for any traditional economists to opine on something that doesn’t fit a linear narrative.   Currently, the most popular narrative out there is that the U.S. is decoupling from the global economy. While that may be true now, and to a point, it has also become fairly consensus. 

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

 

On the topic of the U.S. economy, it has been out-performing many major economies this year and at up +6.7% for the year-to-date the SP500 is in part reflecting this.  In addition, if it weren’t for energy (the XLE is down over -16%) the SP500’s performance would be much stronger.  That said, it is likely a narrative fallacy to believe that if the world catches an economic cold, the U.S. won’t at a minimum sneeze.

 

My colleague Darius Dale did a comprehensive presentation yesterday on emerging markets and his conclusion was somewhat dire.  While he acknowledges that many emerging markets have underperformed year-to-date, he also uses history as a guide which suggests a scenario of increasing emerging market calamity due to strong U.S. dollar in combination with emerging market illiquidity (among other things). 

 

Certainly, the case can be made, as we have, that a strong U.S. dollar is good for the U.S. economy, but the greater global risk is that it moves too far and too quickly, which puts the squeeze on emerging economies that issue debt in U.S. dollars and pay it off in local currency. 

 

In fact, according to some estimates “international banks had loaned $3.1 trillion to emerging markets by the middle of this year, mainly in dollars. Such nations had also issued international debt securities totaling $2.6 trillion, of which three-quarters was in dollars.”  That, my friends, is a lot of U.S. dollar denominated debt in the hands of some potentially very weak economic hands.

 

So, to the extent that emerging economies have less access to capital because of a strong dollar (the data is already showing they do) or in a more extreme scenario, have challenges paying back U.S. dollar debt, there will be increasing economic headwinds globally and we’d be naïve to think that won’t impact U.S. growth.

 

In fact, as we show in the Chart of the Day below, this idea of emerging economies is a bit of a misnomer.  According to our analysis, on a purchasing parity basis the so called “emerging economies” comprised 56% of global GDP share in 2013.  Moreover, in the same year emerging economies comprised 73% of global growth.  So as emerging markets go, so to goes global economic growth.

 

Now to be fair to the bullish narrative on the U.S., in the last full year of 2013, only about 9.4% of U.S. GDP was from exports, so relative to many economies, the U.S. is much more self-sufficient.  The obvious caveat is that from 2009 to 2013, exports also grew by about 49%, so the increase in exports has been a notable tailwind to U.S. GDP. 

 

More critically, for those of us who are stock market operators at least, is the fact that almost a full 1/3 of SP500 corporate revenue comes from international sources.  So even if the U.S. continues to hum along alone, if the global economy does decelerate, so too will U.S. corporate profits. And while the U.S. stock market could continue to move higher in that scenario, we’d probably be hedged.

 

Inasmuch as we are disbelievers in a complete decoupling scenario, there are certainly positives in the U.S.:  a “tightish” labor market, meaningfully lower energy costs and a new one for our ledger... an improving housing market.  Incidentally, we will be outlining our housing narrative (albeit a narrative with facts and analysis) at 1pm eastern today.

 

The key components of this new thesis are as follows:

  • Progress: The same model that underpinned our long thesis in housing in 2012/13 and short position in 2014 is signaling another inflection as we head into 2015;
  • Fledgling Inflection: 2nd derivative trends matter in housing and, from a rate of change perspective, most of the data is beginning to inflect positively; and
  • Opening the Credit Box: After a discrete tightening in 2014, credit constraints should show marginal easing in 2015.

If you’d like information for the call, please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.03-2.19%

SPX 1960-2002

VIX 17.54-25.49

YEN 116.06-121.78

Oil WTI 52.83-60.73

Gold 1180-1220 

 

Keep your head up and stick to your narratives,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Two Words - 28


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Excerpt: Detecting Deception

Earlier this month our Restaurants Team held a conference call for institutional investors Statement Analysis - Putting Companies Through a Linguistic Polygraph Test with former U.S. Deputy Marshall Mark McClish.

 

Mark McClish is the author of I Know You Are Lying and the creator of the Statement Analysis method. In this brief excerpt Mark explains how to identify signs of deception and dissects an excerpt from HAIN’s Q1 earnings call as an example.

 

 

Reading conference call and analyst meeting transcripts is a key part of the analyst’s job. We all use words to define our reality, and our choice of words can be revealing. The premise of Statement Analysis is that a person’s choice of specific words can reveal when there might be an attempt at deception. This Statement Analysis exercise looks exclusively at a company’s written and verbal statements. Using these hidden clues, we can dig deeper into a company’s public pronouncements for signals of potential concerns in a company’s reporting.


Cartoon of the Day: Oil Plunge!

Cartoon of the Day: Oil Plunge! - Oil cartoon 12.20.2014

Oil prices have slumped almost 50% this year, set for the biggest annual decline since 2008. "It's flat out ugly for whoever is long inflation expectations in Energy terms," says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.


Retail Callouts (12/30): ICSC, Idea List, UA, AMZN & Free Shipping

Takeaway: ICSC-intermediate downtrend continues, but 2015 comps get easier. UA steals Murray from Adi. AMZN comments on Holiday & Free Shipping

HEDGEYE RETAIL IDEA LIST

Retail Callouts (12/30): ICSC, Idea List, UA, AMZN & Free Shipping - 12 30 chart1

 

ECONOMIC DATA

 

Takeaway: The ICSC numbers end the year on a low note decelerating on a 1,2, and 3 yr basis after the pre-Christmas rebound which we suspect was helped by retailers need to clean up inventory positions headed into January. Since the week 36 peak, the trend has been overwhelmingly negative. That being said, comps in the first calendar quarter of 2015 get very easy with an average comp of 1.6% compared to the rest of the year at 3.1%.

Retail Callouts (12/30): ICSC, Idea List, UA, AMZN & Free Shipping - 12 30 chart2

 

 

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

UA - Under Armour Signs Andy Murray

Retail Callouts (12/30): ICSC, Idea List, UA, AMZN & Free Shipping - 12 30 chart3

 

Takeaway:  At 27 Murray isn't quite a tennis dinosaur but he's getting close. Still this is a coup for UA which was able to steal him away from Adi. The 4 year deal is just north of $5mm per year or about 2% of the company's 2014 projected marketing spend and less than a half of a percent of total revenue. That's a drop in the bucket for UA. And it gives them a bonafide presence on the court. The company's current lineup of athletes (Sloane Stephens and Robert Ginepri) don't spend a lot of time playing in front of a national TV crew.   UA has been unafraid to diversify, trying its hand at everything from speed skating to supermodels, so tennis is a logical extension for the brand. At the price that they are paying…this is a win for UA.

 

AMZN - Free shipping saved consumers $2bil+, volume up 100mm units

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97664&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2002056)

Retail Callouts (12/30): ICSC, Idea List, UA, AMZN & Free Shipping - 12 30 chart4

 

Takeaway: If we assume that each order on average cost the consumer $5 to ship, we get to a total of 400 million packages shipped for free this holiday season, up 100mm units or 33% from last year. That's pretty damaging for the rest of retail. Especially when you consider the drag it has on profitability. AMZN pays close to 10% of it's revenue to cover its shipping expense every year and its e-comm operation is 6x bigger than WMT and 16X bigger than M. If it's an issue for AMZN you can bet it's a bigger issue at just about every other retailer on the planet. We've seen that from KSS where the online EBIT margin is 4% margin compared to Brick and Mortar closer to 10%. Historically, retailers have been lemmings when it comes to shipping charges and we think the trend towards free continues.

 

OTHER NEWS

 

BABA - Tmall global sales increase 10 times in 10 months

(http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Tmall-global-sales-increase-10-times-in-10-months/shdaily.shtml)

 

WAG - Walgreen Shareholders Approve Alliance Boots Deal

(http://www.wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/financial/walgreens-shareholders-approve-boots-deal-8086343?module=hp-topstories)

 

APP - American Apparel Faces Growing Calls to Sell

(http://www.wwd.com/business-news/financial/pressure-builds-at-american-apparel-8086667?module=Business-latest)

 

SHLD - Sears ecommerce chief resigns

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/sears-ecommerce-chief-resigns)

 

 


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