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Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email 

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European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly widened in Europe last week.  Greek banks widened the most on fears that the parliamentary vote for a new president would fail.  News broke this morning that the vote did in fact fail.  That will force the country into snap elections in early 2015.

European Banking Monitor: RED In Financials  - chart1 euro financials cds

Sovereign CDS – We look at the move in swaps as of Friday's close so the Greek election news this morning is not reflected in these figures and has most swaps higher as of this morning. There was notable tightening in Portuguese sovereign swaps (-23 bps to 173 bps) and modest tightening in Italy and Spain.

European Banking Monitor: RED In Financials  - chart2 sovereign CDS

European Banking Monitor: RED In Financials  - chart3 sovereign CDS

European Banking Monitor: RED In Financials  - chart4 sovereign cds

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bps to 10 bps.

European Banking Monitor: RED In Financials  - chart5 euribor OIS spread

Matthew Hedrick 

Associate

Ben Ryan

Analyst