Editor's note: Below is an excerpt from today's Morning Newsletter which was written by Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones.
Staying on the theme of consumption as a big driver of Q3 GDP, our Retail Sector Head Brian McGough circulated a chart of “ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) YTD Comp Sales Trends,” which is in the Chart of the Day, and according to McGough:
“A big rebound in sales for the week, but this follows two big weekly declines in the context of an intermediate term downtrend. The point there is that with sales trending down so much into the biggest holiday week, it makes sense that retailers would really turn the discounting machine into overdrive to have any shot at hitting numbers and prevent a glut of inventory in January. Online sales trends per Channel Advisor are downright sobering.”
Certainly, this data doesn’t guarantee that Q4 GDP will slow from Q3, because it is still possible that old St. Nicholas has some last minute shopping to do!