Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015)

Takeaway: In this note, we take a closer look at the industry-wide trends implied by consensus same-store sales estimates for 2015.

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 88


Key Points

  • Casual Dining, Family Dining, Fine Dining, and Sandwich two-year comps are expected to accelerate throughout 2015.
  • Coffee, Fast Casual, and Pizza two-year comps are expected to decelerate throughout 2015.
  • Comp estimates, in aggregate, appear aggressive perhaps driven by recent encouraging reports from Black Box and Knapp as well as declining gasoline prices.
  • For this reason, we believe we are well-positioned to identity several opportunistic shorts next year.


Casual Dining Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Casual Dining two-year accelerating 100 bps to 1.7%
  • BJRI two-year accelerating 200  bps to 1.1%
  • BLMN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
  • BBRG two-year accelerating 240 bps to -2.8%
  • BWLD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 4.5%
  • CAKE two-year accelerating 35 bps to 1.7%
  • CHUY two-year decelerating 50 bps to 2.6%
  • DIN (Applebee’s) two-year accelerating 60 bps to 1.3%
  • DIN (IHOP) two-year decelerating 95 bps to 2.1%
  • DRI two-year accelerating 230 bps to 1.6%
  • EAT two-year accelerating 160 bps to 2.0%
  • IRG accelerating 225 bps to -0.1%
  • KONA two-year decelerating 5 bps to 2.6%
  • RRGB two-year decelerating 65 bps to 2.7%
  • RT two-year accelerating 660 bps to 1.5%
  • TXRH two-year accelerating 55 bps to 4.9%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 11



Coffee Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Coffee two-year decelerating 156 bps to 3.4%
  • DNKN two-year decelerating 130 bps to 1.9%
  • KKD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 2.9%
  • SBUX two-year decelerating 95 bps to 5.1%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 22



Family Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Family Dining two-year accelerating 78 bps to 2.1%
  • BOBE two-year accelerating 225 bps to 1.3%
  • CBRL two-year decelerating 20 bps to 2.9%
  • DENN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 2.1%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 33



Fast Casual Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Fast Casual two-year decelerating 52 bps to 4.3%
  • CMG two-year decelerating 230 bps to 10.7%
  • FRGI (Pollo Tropical) two-year decelerating 160 bps to 4.6%
  • FRGI (Taco Cabana) two-year accelerating 55 bps to 3.2%
  • NDLS two-year accelerating 20 bps to 2.1%
  • PBPB two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
  • PNRA two-year accelerating 130 bps to 2.7%
  • ZOES two-year decelerating 210 bps to 4.7%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 44



Fine Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Fine Dining two-year accelerating 52 bps to 1.9%
  • DFRG two-year accelerating 75 bps to 2.5%
  • RUTH two-year decelerating 105 bps to 3.5%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 55



Pizza Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Pizza two-year decelerating 173 bps to 3.9%
  • DPZ two-year decelerating 160 bps to 5.0%
  • PZZA two-year decelerating 185 bps to 2.8%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 66



Sandwich Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Sandwich two-year accelerating 44 bps to 2.6%
  • BKW two-year accelerating 55 bps to 2.2%
  • JACK (JIB) two-year accelerating 120 bps to 2.1%
  • JACK (Qdoba) two-year accelerating 155 bps to 6.4%
  • MCD two-year accelerating 145 bps to 0.3%
  • PLKI two-year decelerating 230 bps to 3.9%
  • SONC two-year decelerating 220 bps to 3.1%
  • WEN two-year decelerating 15 bps to 1.8%
  • YUM two-year accelerating 340 bps to 1.4%


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 77



Howard Penney

Managing Director


Fred Masotta


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