THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 8, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 41 points or 1.70% downside to 2040 and 0.27% upside to 2081.                                        

                                                                                       

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.66 from 1.66
  • VIX closed at 11.82 1 day percent change of -4.52%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10am: Fed Labor Market Conditions Index Change, Nov. (pr 4)
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M bills, $26b 6M bills
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda
  • FX Weekly Agenda

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama hosts Prince William at White House
    • 9:30am: Supreme Court issues orders on pending cases
    • 11am: House Democrats hold conf. call briefing to discuss Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations
    • 2pm: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte hearing on authorization for use of military force against Islamic State

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Merck Said in Talks to Buy Cubist Pharmaceuticals for $7b
  • CBS, Dish Reach Multiyear Content Distribution Agreement
  • McDonald’s Nov. Comp. Sales Seen Falling for 6th Month
  • Banks Urge Big U.S. Clients to Park Deposits Elsewhere: WSJ
  • KKR, CVC Said to Lead Bidding for KFC Mideast Operator Americana
  • Blackstone to Sell California Office Portfolio for $3.5b: WSJ
  • Obama Tested for Sore Throat at Washington Army Hospital
  • United Technologies CEO Left Amid Director Concern on Priorities
  • Temasek to Buy Stake in High-Speed Trader Virtu Financial
  • PetSmart Auction Said to Be Extended to Later This Week: NY Post
  • China Blocks Review of Carbon Pledges Sought by U.S. at UN Talks
  • Madoff Aide Hired in 1960s Will Be First to Learn Prison Fate
  • China Rejects Arbitration of South China Sea Territorial Dispute
  • Hostages Killed in Yemen During Rescue Mission by Special Forces
  • NYC to Sell Public-Housing Stake to Developers: WSJ

 

EARNINGS:

    • ABM Industries (ABM) 5pm, $0.57
    • Diamond Foods (DMND) 4:02pm, $0.25
    • H&R Block (HRB) 4:05pm, ($0.42)
    • Photronics (PLAB) 4:30pm, $0.09
    • Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) Bef-mkt, $0.14
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 8am, ($2.03)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Commodity Benchmarks Seen Open to Manipulation, Law Firm Says
  • Oil Slumps to Five-Year Low as OPEC Decision Spurs Forecast Cuts
  • Gold Bulls Return as Wagers on Stimulus Accumulate: Commodities
  • Hedge Funds Betting That OPEC-Led Oil Rout Is Near End: Energy
  • Wheat Falls as Snow Seen Shielding Black Sea, U.S. Sales Slip
  • Copper Drops for Second Day as Chinese Imports Unexpectedly Fall
  • MORE: China Copper-Product Imports Rise to 7-Month High in Nov.
  • Gold Rises for First Time in Three Days After Bullish Bets Climb
  • Kuwait Plans $7 Billion Heavy-Oil Project Amid Cheaper Crude
  • Trafigura Gross Margin Improves After Oil, Metals Volumes Climb
  • Oil Slump Seen Driving M&A as Nordea Bank Monitors Valuations
  • Algeria’s Sonatrach Says Lower Oil Price Won’t Delay Investments
  • U.S. Gulf-Latin America Fuels Cargoes Rise to Record: Weber
  • Rubber Rises Most in 2 Weeks as Yen at 7-Year Low Boosts Appeal

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more