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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 20, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 50 points or 2.13% downside to 2005 and 0.31% upside to 2055.                                                            

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.81 from 1.84
  • VIX closed at 13.96 1 day percent change of 0.72%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in New York
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Nov. 15, est. 284k (prior 290k)
  • 8:30am: CPI m/m, Oct., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
  • 9:45am: Markit U.S. Mfg PMI, Nov. prelim 56.3 (prior 55.9)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 16 (prior 38.2)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed Outlook, Nov., est. 18.5 (prior 20.7)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Oct., est. 5.15m (prior 5.17m)
  • 10am: Leading Index, Oct., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10Y TIPS
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in London
  • 8:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Seoul

GOVERNMENT:

    • Sec. of State John Kerry leaves for Paris
    • 8pm: Obama gives national address on plans for executive order to address immigration
    • 8:30am: Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, delivers breakfast keynote remarks at “Enhancing the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership: Reducing Regulatory Barriers”
    • 9:30am: Senate Permanent Sbcmte on Investigations hearings to examine extent to which banks, holding cos. own physical commodities incl. oil, natural gas, aluminum
    • 9:30am: Sens. Edward Markey, D-Mass., Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. hold news conf. on Senate Commerce Cmte hearing on airbag recalls
    • 10am: Senate Commerce Cmte hearing on airbag defects, vehicle recall process

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Obama scheduled to give 8pm speech on immigration action
  • Gunman Shot Dead on Florida University Campus After 3 Injured: AP
  • Technip Seeks $1.8b Purchase of CGG; Approach Rejected
  • Wall Street Banks Gained Unfair Advantage Owning Commodities
  • Airbus Said to Near Win Over Boeing for Delta Air Wide-Body Jets
  • Caesars Shares Jump on Debt Proposal to Convert Unit Into REIT
  • GoDaddy Seeks Nearly $4.5b IPO Valuation, New York Post Reports
  • RBS Fined $88m by U.K. Regulators for 2012 Technology Collapse
  • German PMI Expands at Slowest Pace in 16 Months
  • Chinese Factory Gauge Falls to 6-Month Low as Slowdown Deepens
  • T-Mobile Could Attract Suitors Again, Deutsche Telekom Says
  • Alibaba Said to Prepare Inaugural Bond Sale as Soon as Today
  • Brookfield Property Drops Plan to Buy New Jersey’s Revel Casino
  • Sony Pictures Said to Drop Plans to Produce Steve Jobs Film

AM EARNS

    • Donaldson (DCI) 6am, $0.42
    • GasLog (GLOG) 6am, $0.22
    • Spectrum Brands (SPB) 6:30am, $1.14
    • Best Buy (BBY) 7am, $0.25 - Preview
    • Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.85
    • Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.51
    • Perry Ellis (PERY) 7:30am, $0.06
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.64 - Preview
    • Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.23

PM EARNS:

    • Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.73
    • Ross Stores (ROST) 4pm, $0.87 - Preview
    • Intuit (INTU) 4pm, ($0.20)
    • GameStop (GME) 4:01pm, $0.61
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.22
    • Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:01pm, $0.25
    • Splunk (SPLK) 4:02pm, $0.01
    • Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:05pm, $0.29
    • Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:15pm, $0.21
    • Fresh Market (TFM) 4:20pm, $0.28
    • Renren (RENN) 7pm, ($0.13)

                               

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Banks Had Unfair Advantage From Commodity Units, Senator Says
  • Top Rubber Growers Agree to Reduce Exports to Boost Global Price
  • Aluminum Fee to Japan Seen Climbing to Record on Global Deficit
  • Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Lose Money for Shale Drillers
  • Goldman Lowers 2015 Nickel Estimate on China Pig Iron Output
  • Goldman, Glencore Found in ‘Merry-Go-Round’ Aluminum Trades
  • Soybeans Rebound From Two-Week Low on U.S. Feed Supply Outlook
  • Pigs Are Too Fat for Holiday Hams as Prices Surge: Commodities
  • Ebola Stokes Liberian Food Shortage as Hungry Farmers Eat Seeds
  • Goldman Sachs to Wind Down Uranium Unit After Failing to Sell
  • Gold Futures Fall a Second Day as Dollar Gains After Fed Minutes
  • Codelco Sees Copper Price Outlook ’Quite Stable’: Chairman
  • JPMorgan Power Market Influence Targeted in U.S. Senate Report
  • Saudi Arabia Tenders for 330,000 Tons of Hard Wheat
  • Goldman, Morgan Stanley Commodity Heyday Gone as Units Faulted

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team