TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 20, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 50 points or 2.13% downside to 2005 and 0.31% upside to 2055.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.81 from 1.84
- VIX closed at 13.96 1 day percent change of 0.72%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in New York
- 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Nov. 15, est. 284k (prior 290k)
- 8:30am: CPI m/m, Oct., est. -0.1% (prior 0.1%)
- 9:45am: Markit U.S. Mfg PMI, Nov. prelim 56.3 (prior 55.9)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 16 (prior 38.2)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed Outlook, Nov., est. 18.5 (prior 20.7)
- 10am: Existing Home Sales, Oct., est. 5.15m (prior 5.17m)
- 10am: Leading Index, Oct., est. 0.6% (prior 0.8%)
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $13b 10Y TIPS
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Mester speaks in London
- 8:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Seoul
GOVERNMENT:
- Sec. of State John Kerry leaves for Paris
- 8pm: Obama gives national address on plans for executive order to address immigration
- 8:30am: Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, delivers breakfast keynote remarks at “Enhancing the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership: Reducing Regulatory Barriers”
- 9:30am: Senate Permanent Sbcmte on Investigations hearings to examine extent to which banks, holding cos. own physical commodities incl. oil, natural gas, aluminum
- 9:30am: Sens. Edward Markey, D-Mass., Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. hold news conf. on Senate Commerce Cmte hearing on airbag recalls
- 10am: Senate Commerce Cmte hearing on airbag defects, vehicle recall process
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Obama scheduled to give 8pm speech on immigration action
- Gunman Shot Dead on Florida University Campus After 3 Injured: AP
- Technip Seeks $1.8b Purchase of CGG; Approach Rejected
- Wall Street Banks Gained Unfair Advantage Owning Commodities
- Airbus Said to Near Win Over Boeing for Delta Air Wide-Body Jets
- Caesars Shares Jump on Debt Proposal to Convert Unit Into REIT
- GoDaddy Seeks Nearly $4.5b IPO Valuation, New York Post Reports
- RBS Fined $88m by U.K. Regulators for 2012 Technology Collapse
- German PMI Expands at Slowest Pace in 16 Months
- Chinese Factory Gauge Falls to 6-Month Low as Slowdown Deepens
- T-Mobile Could Attract Suitors Again, Deutsche Telekom Says
- Alibaba Said to Prepare Inaugural Bond Sale as Soon as Today
- Brookfield Property Drops Plan to Buy New Jersey’s Revel Casino
- Sony Pictures Said to Drop Plans to Produce Steve Jobs Film
AM EARNS
- Donaldson (DCI) 6am, $0.42
- GasLog (GLOG) 6am, $0.22
- Spectrum Brands (SPB) 6:30am, $1.14
- Best Buy (BBY) 7am, $0.25 - Preview
- Buckle (BKE) 7am, $0.85
- Patterson (PDCO) 7am, $0.51
- Perry Ellis (PERY) 7:30am, $0.06
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:30am, $0.64 - Preview
- Raven Industries (RAVN) 9am, $0.23
PM EARNS:
- Gap (GPS) 4pm, $0.73
- Ross Stores (ROST) 4pm, $0.87 - Preview
- Intuit (INTU) 4pm, ($0.20)
- GameStop (GME) 4:01pm, $0.61
- Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.22
- Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:01pm, $0.25
- Splunk (SPLK) 4:02pm, $0.01
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) 4:05pm, $0.29
- Mentor Graphics (MENT) 4:15pm, $0.21
- Fresh Market (TFM) 4:20pm, $0.28
- Renren (RENN) 7pm, ($0.13)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Banks Had Unfair Advantage From Commodity Units, Senator Says
- Top Rubber Growers Agree to Reduce Exports to Boost Global Price
- Aluminum Fee to Japan Seen Climbing to Record on Global Deficit
- Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Lose Money for Shale Drillers
- Goldman Lowers 2015 Nickel Estimate on China Pig Iron Output
- Goldman, Glencore Found in ‘Merry-Go-Round’ Aluminum Trades
- Soybeans Rebound From Two-Week Low on U.S. Feed Supply Outlook
- Pigs Are Too Fat for Holiday Hams as Prices Surge: Commodities
- Ebola Stokes Liberian Food Shortage as Hungry Farmers Eat Seeds
- Goldman Sachs to Wind Down Uranium Unit After Failing to Sell
- Gold Futures Fall a Second Day as Dollar Gains After Fed Minutes
- Codelco Sees Copper Price Outlook ’Quite Stable’: Chairman
- JPMorgan Power Market Influence Targeted in U.S. Senate Report
- Saudi Arabia Tenders for 330,000 Tons of Hard Wheat
- Goldman, Morgan Stanley Commodity Heyday Gone as Units Faulted
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team