Analysis of November trends/takeaways and an update to our monthly forecast
Please see our note: http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_Macau_11.18.14.pdf
Takeaway: November takes a turn for the worse portending a December disaster. Hedgeye forward estimates remain well below Street
Analysis of November trends/takeaways and an update to our monthly forecast
Please see our note: http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_Macau_11.18.14.pdf
Burning Yens move back to $116.67 on Abe promising to do what the country can’t afford (delaying consumption tax for political points) and going for the snapper election on DEC 14th – what happens to this global carry trading thing if he loses? Yen (vs. USD) testing the low-end of its 114.04-116.97 risk range #volatility pending!
It’s not clear how many more selling opportunities they are going to give us in French and Italian equities, but this is just one more bounce to lower-highs that we’d look to sell into on a newsy morning about “German recovery” – GDP comps for Europe are tough for the next 3 quarters.
The Russell 2000 is down -1.9% in the last 3 days, but the world’s consensus hedge (SPY) isn’t down (yet), so no worries. From both a liquidity and volume perspective, this is a rewind of the movie you saw in late SEP (decelerating volume on UP days for SPX). Total U.S. Equity market volume was -26% vs. its 1month average yesterday.
|FIXED INCOME||29%||INTL CURRENCIES||4%|
The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.
We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).
The U.S. is in Quad #4 on our GIP (Growth/Inflation/Policy) model, which suggests that both economic growth and reported inflation are slowing domestically. As far as the eye can see in a falling interest rate environment, we think you should increase your exposure to slow-growth, yield-chasing trade and remain long of defensive assets like long-term treasuries and Consumer Staples (XLP) – which work decidedly better than Utilities in Quad #4. Consumer Staples is as good as any place to hide as the world clamors for low-beta-big-cap-liquidity.
CFTC (non-commercial) net SHORT position in the Euro at YTD highs of -162,216 contracts #massive
If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting.
A group of Walmart employees pushing for higher wages are planning protests at 1,600 Walmart stores nationwide on Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year in the United States.
Tickers: MGM, CHH, DRH, HST, CCL, NCLH, RCL
GENS:SP – Genting Singapore executing on a share repurchase program. Over the past two days, the company repurchased 14 million shares for S$14.87 million. Cumulative shares repurchased year-to-date = 21,584,000 and the maximum shares authorized for repurchase = 1,223,813,684. Following today's 10 million share repurchase, the total shares outstanding = 12,225,510,702.
Takeaway: When the prospects for new development fade (Japan) buy back stock.
034230:KS & 6460.JP (Paradise and Sega Sammy) – WIth Japan's Diet unable to pass integrated resort legislation and a near-term pause in growth across Macau, gaming operators and investors are turning their attention to South Korea.
Takeaway: Not entirely an unexpected story since Sega Sammy in currently conducting investor meetings in New York.
MGM – late on Monday, paid Massachusetts the required $85 million gambling licensing fee for its $800 million Springfield resort casino and the 15 year operating license.
Takeaway: BlueTarp reDevelopment is now live, Springfield must now issue the building permits.
CHH– repurchased 1,043,509 shares of its common stock from Stewart Bainum, Jr., the Chairman of the board of the company at a purchase price per share of $51.95 per share. Following the transaction, Bainum remains the beneficial owner of over 12.6 million shares of Choice common stock, or approximately 22% of the outstanding common stock. As a result of this repurchase, approximately 20,000 shares remained available under the CHH’s share repurchase program
Takeaway: A very efficient share repurchase for CHH and likely a larger repurchase than modeled by analysts and investors.
DRH – agreed to sell the 1,004 room Los Angeles Airport Marriott for $160 million, or $159,360 per key to Sichuan Xinglida Group Enterprises, as a result of reverse inquiry. SIchuan previously acquired the Torrance Marrioot from DRH in November 2013. Diamondrock purchased the LAX Marriott acquired the Hotel in 2005 for $118 million and then renovated the property in 2006. The property sold at a 6.6% cap rate on last twelve month net operating income of ~$10.5 million.
Takeaway: A very good price for a large, airport centric upper-upscale hotel. We continue to wonder why Starwood Hotels has not been more active.
HST – the media is reporting Host Hotels & Resorts with its partner, Vornado Realty Trust, the eight-story tall billboard recently installed on the Marriott Marquis Hotel on Broadway, was leased by Google for November 24 until January 2015. Reports indicated ads on the screen are being marketed for at least $2.5 million for four weeks.
Takeaway: With the revenue economics now disclosed, we look forward to details from HST management regarding the revenue sharing arrangement with Vornado.
CCL – announced the Company's first-ever multi-brand marketing campaign incorporating all nine of its leading global brands to drive increased awareness, consideration and demand for cruising as a great vacation option at an exceptional value.
Takeaway: This new marketing strategy to attract 1st time cruisers may result in lower corporate expenses.
CCL – unveiled details of its newest ship, Koningsdam, Holland America's biggest ship and the first in a new Pinnacle Class, scheduled for delivery in February 2016. Highlights of the 99,500-ton, 2,650-passenger ship include: The Queen's Lounge, which has been expanded to include a second tier; a three-deck-high, skylight-capped atrium encapsulated in a stainless steel sculpture; new family cabins; and two outdoor swimming pools.
NCLH – Norwegian to re-create The Cavern Club with entertainment programs spanning Broadway to the birthplace of the Beatles aboard Epic with sailings from Barcelona.
RCL – On the heels of a vessel sale to Ctrip earlier this year, Royal Caribbean Cruises continues to move toward an announcement with the Chinese travel company on a joint venture cruise lines.
Takeaway: Our understanding is that RCL would like to partner with Ctrip on creating a lower-end mass product servicing China.
China Corruption Crackdown – In a crackdown named Operation Fox Hunt, China arrested 288 fugitives suspected of committing economic crimes as part of an aggressive anti-corruption effort aimed at individuals who have fled to 56 countries, including the United States, Canada, Spain, South Korea, and South Africa
Takeaway: No end insight for the corruption crackdown.
Portugal's Minister of Internal Affairs Resigns Over Golden Visa Program – The “golden visa” program was launched in 2013 and fast tracks the visa process for citizens living outside of the Schengen space that invest a certain amount in Portugal for a period of no less than five years. Thus far, the two years of the program have seen a total of 1,649 visas awarded, the majority to Chinese citizens, and attracting in excess of €1 billion (USD1.25 billion) in investment, primarily going into the property market
Macau Slow to Approval Building Reuse Plans – The government has approved only two of the 14 sets of plans it has received since April 2011 to turn industrial buildings into housing.
Takeaway: While the government pushes for gaming operators to provide worker housing, the government must also lend a hand in the approval process.
Delta Bridge Cost Estimates Rise – The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project will cost taxpayers at least HK$3.3 billion more than its HK$83 billion budget. The whole bridge will cost some HK$132.9 billion, according to the bridge authority. The costs will be split between Hong Kong, Macau and mainland authorities. Hong Kong's contribution, including the new island, will come to HK$83 billion.
Takeaway: While cost go up, no announced delays to the 2016 opening. However, we wouldn't expect the bridge to open before 2017.
Clark County Taxi Trips Rise– Nevada Taxicab Authority disclosed October taxi trips were up 5.6% to 2.4 million passengers for the month compared with the same month a year earlier. Revenue per shift also was up 2.9% to $294.04 for the month. For the first 10 months of 2014, taxi trips are up 4.7% to 23.7 million trips over last year.
Takeaway: Strong October visitation trends for the Las Vegas strip and locals gaming operators.
Connecticut Gaming Expansion NOT Likley – Gov. Dannel P. Malloy indicated he won't play a "lead role" in any legislation to expand gaming to include a slots parlor near I-91 between Hartford and Springfield. Malloy further suggested the issue is a legislative matter, and he doesn't believe the topic has support in the state.
Takeaway: Mohegan's hope for a second property, now clearly less likely.
Graton Resort & Casino Land Challenge – Stop Graton Casino, a group opposed to the recently opened Graton Resort and Casino near Rohnert Park have opened up a new attack on the gambling mega-complex, asking the California Supreme Court to invalidate the Graton Indian tribe's claim over the land in that casino's 254 acres don't meet state and federal guidelines for Indian casino land because they weren't ancestral Graton territory and were instead given to the tribe by Station Casinos of Las Vegas.
Takeaway: Another Off-Reservation tribal gaming challenge and not likely to be successful.
Hotel Cancellation Fees Going Up, Following the Airline Model – Marriott and Hilton, announced they would increase their fee revenue by tightening rules on last-minute reservation cancellations, effective January 1, both companies say that if you don’t cancel your reservation by the day before your scheduled arrival, you’ll be charged a penalty of one night’s room rate.
Takeaway: With occupancy at record levels, hotels are trying to drive additional high-margin revenues. Business travelers, who according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association, represent about 40% of all hotel stays are traveling more and changing/cancelling their plans more as well. We won't be surprised to see the hotel companies offer their their top tier loyalty program customers complimentary cancellation policies.
China Foreign Direct Investment – Increased 1.2% for the month of October on a year-over-year basis. On a year-to-date basis, January through October, FDI declined 1.2%
China October New Home Prices – declined 0.8% versus September and was a slight improvement versus the 1% decline in September versus August. The year-over-year price decline was 2.4%.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator for November was 11.0 versus consensus expectations of 4.3 and 4.1 during October.
Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.
Takeaway: European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015. Following CCL's F3Q 2014 earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis.
Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up. Following a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive.
Takeaway: We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.
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Takeaway: Math on RH Atlanta says 65k sq. ft. is conservative
We'll be at the RH Atlanta Design Gallery Grand Opening on Thursday night. This is an important one because the store is 65,000 sq. ft. (45K indoor selling + 20K outdoor) -- the first of the '2nd Generation' Design Galleries. Remember that the first wave of Design Galleries averaged about 20,000 feet. The Street 'gets it' that the economics in these stores are significantly better than in the legacy 9,000 ft stores, but there are massive questions (and doubts) about the economics associated with a mega-store like what RH is building in Atlanta.
A couple of reasons why we think this store size makes sense for RH in Atlanta.
1. As we outlined in our RH Real Estate Deep Dive, you need to look at market size of every single store -- which we define as home furnishings spend for consumers earning over $100k. We did that in every single region RH operates.
2. Our math suggests that there are 22 existing RH locations that could support a store of 60,000 or greater. This assumes 2018 market share of 10%, and sales productivity of $1,200.
3. Of these 22 locations, Atlanta is #3 on the list, behind New York and Houston. Our math suggests RH could have a store size as great as 90,000 feet.
4. The rent economics work. Relative to RH's existing store in Atlanta, we think that occupancy math lines up well with the Denver store, which will open in 2015 (See math below).
RH remains our top idea in Retail.
Takeaway: In today's Macro Playbook, we highlight the crowded net short position in long-term Treasuries and why we want you to continue buying bonds.
Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations
Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations
QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT
QE1 Announcement (11/25/08):
QE2 Hint at Jackson Hole (8/27/10):
Operation Twist Announcement (9/21/11):
QE3 Announcement (9/13/12):
***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***
TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES
#Quad4 (introduced 10/2/14): Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.
Early Look: November Rain (11/18)
#EuropeSlowing (introduced 10/2/14): Is ECB President Mario Draghi Europe's savior? Despite his ability to wield a QE fire hose, our view is that inflation via currency debasement does not produce sustainable economic growth. We believe select member states will struggle to implement appropriate structural reforms and fiscal management to induce real growth.
#Bubbles (introduced 10/2/14): The current economic cycle is cresting and the confluence of policy-induced yield-chasing and late-cycle speculation is inflating spread risk across asset classes. The clock is ticking on the value proposition of the latest policy to inflate as the prices many investors are paying for financial assets is significantly higher than the value they are receiving in return.
Early Look: Battlefield’s Vortex (11/11)
Best of luck out there,
Associate: Macro Team
About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook
The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends. Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today.
Today's Chart of the Day, first published by our Financials team early in the year, shows that the end of QE1 & QE2 were both followed by sharp drops in 10-year treasury yields as the bond market priced in slowing growth and the inability of the private sector to successfully take the hand-off from the Fed. We’re inclined to interpret the current weakness in the 10Y as a protracted version of this recurrent cycle. Essentially, it's the same selloff seen in the last two iterations, but in slow-motion, over the duration of the taper instead of all at once.
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.