Takeaway: Hedgeye Retail Ideas List. Alibaba cleans up counterfeits-interesting dot.com oppty for brands in China. Puma doubling down on soccer.
HEDGEYE RETAIL IDEAS LIST
EVENTS TO WATCH
- KATE - Earnings Call: 10:00am
- FOSL - Earnings Call: 4:30pm
- M - Earnings Call: 10:30am
- WMT - Earnings Call: 7:00am
- KSS - Earnings Call: 8:30am
- JCP - Earnings Call: 4:30pm
- JWN - Earnings Call 4:45pm
RL, NKE, ADI - Alibaba Cleans Up 'Gray Market' for Some Prestigious Brands
- "Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is rolling out a powerful new incentive to attract luxury brands: removing some listings from its online shopping sites."
- "Like many premium brands, Burberry PLC had been fretting about a flood of discount Burberry products—some of them fakes—on Alibaba's two big marketplaces, which accounted for 80% of China's estimated $300 billion in online shopping last year. Burberry hadn't authorized any of those vendors to sell its goods."
- "Alibaba would do its best to get those products off its sites if Burberry opened its own shop on Alibaba's online mall, Burberry was told, according to people familiar with the talks. Burberry opened a store on Alibaba's Tmall in April."
Takeaway: As a brand you can’t argue with Alibaba's reach. It dominates the Chinese online marketplace, but for many counterfeit and brand integrity concerns were a non-starter. Then BRBY opened a banner on T-Mall in April and in a span of two months the number of 3rd party outlets offering Burberry branded products fell from 56 to just 1 - essentially eliminating the counterfeit threat in the process. Whatever you want to call it, forced coercion or cooperation it's clear that the platform offers some compelling advantages for brands who choose to partner with Alibaba. NKE, Adi, and GPS have already taken the leap, and we think it's an interesting opportunity for many more (particularly RL).
KER, Puma - Puma CEO confirms consideration for entry at BVB
- "Puma CEO Bjørn Gulden has confirmed in an interview with business week for the first time that the sporting goods manufacturer is considering a shareholding in the listed Bundesliga club Borussia Dortmund."
- "Here, the Puma CEO expects that BVB will continue to sell more jerseys outside of Germany abroad through its expansion of marketing."
Takeaway: Some of the article admittedly may be lost in (Google) translation - it's in German after all. Despite spending 3 months living in the country, I never got past learning how to order a beer. What we could glean from the interview with Puma's CEO, Bjorn Gulden, is that the other brand from Herzogenaurach plans to double down its core sports business, i.e. Soccer. The global soccer marketplace has evolved into a two horse race between Nike and Adi with UA nipping at their heels. We understand why the sport is such a particular point of emphasis following the World Cup, but Puma's timing couldn’t be worse. Following Adi's 70mm pound per year deal with ManU, it's clear for Puma that a renewed emphasis on Futbol won't be cheap.
WMT - Chinese Regulators Investigate Wal-Mart Store
- "Chinese regulators are investigating a Wal-Mart store in the southern city of Shenzhen for food safety violations, the official Xinhua news service reported, based on videos it said were taken by a Wal-Mart employee at one branch."
- "The U.S. retail giant told Reuters that it had launched its own investigation in response to the video and found no evidence to support its claims, nor had multiple visits by authorities uncovered any wrongdoing."
WSM, RH - Williams-Sonoma and Pottery Barn to Exit Toronto's 100 Bloor Street West
- "Early next year, Williams-Sonoma and Pottery Barn will exit Toronto's 100 Bloor Street West. As a result, about 37,000 square feet of new retail space will become available in the heart of Canada's 'Mink Mile'. 100 Bloor's landlord substantially raised its rents, according to sources."
- "Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, and Pottery Barn Kids have occupied spaces at 100 Bloor Street West since 2001."
GPS - Would You Tweet for These Flip-Flops? Old Navy, Nike, Westin Hotels dole out freebies for social chatter
- "Old Navy on Sunday wrapped up its second rollout of Twitter-enabled vending machines in Japan that dispense free flip-flops in exchange for sending a tweet from a kiosk. Earlier this summer, the retailer used 28 machines in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco leading up to a summer sale."
AMZN - Amazon Halts Some Disney Movie Preorders
- "Amazon.com Inc. has halted preorders for some DVDs and Blu-ray discs from media giant Walt Disney Co., including popular titles such as "Captain America: The Winter Soldier," in an apparent contract dispute."
- "The online retailer is restricting customers' ability to preorder physical copies of the films, promising to notify them when they become available. It is a tactic Amazon has used several times this year, including with Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. studio, before reaching a resolution earlier this year, as well as a continuing spat with Hachette Book Group."
Tickers: BYI, IGT, MGM, MPEL, WYNN, RCL
- Aug 11:
- HPT 2Q 1pm:
- CZR 2Q 430pm: 844.231-441, pw: 55917191
- STN 2Q 430pm
- HTHT 2Q 9pm: , pw 7103 4558
- Aug 12:
- HMIN 2Q 9pm: , pw HOME INNS
- Aug 14:
- GENTING SINGAPORE 2Q earnings
- Revel Auction Proceedings
IGT – GTECH S.p.A. announced the U.S. antitrust authorities have granted early termination of the required waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976 relating to GTECH’s pending acquisition of International Game Technology (IGT), thereby satisfying one of the conditions required to finalize the transaction. The transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies, is currently expected to be completed in the first or Q2 of 2015.
TAKEAWAY: A faster than expected clearance of a significant hurdle.
MGM / MGM China – (Macau Daily Times) the Company reportedly received the license approval for the full MGM Cotai building plan and now expects the new property to open mid-2016 – albeit potentially in phases.
TAKEAWAY: Licensing approval, but does the Company hold the construction permit to erect steel and build the superstructure above ground?
880:HK – late on Friday, Forefront of Macau Gaming announced the labor organization would protest and picket against SJM, its latest target. Previously, Forefront of Macau Gaming targeted labor actions against both Sands China and Galaxy.
TAKEAWAY: Forefront of Macau Gaming is simply moving from operator to operator demanding higher pay for casino floor workers – despite the operators voluntarily increasing worker compensation.
BYI – launched a new 50 line, 5 line video slot game titled “Aloha Island”. The slot title features tropical island symbols such as parrots, pearls, boat and more while also playing gentle island music. The game allows for bets from $0.01 up to $100.
TAKEAWAY: Another new game but for an industry facing strong demographic headwinds.
MPEL - The Taipei District Prosecutors Office charged the Taipei branch of MPEL with deliberate violation of foreign exchange controls and failure to maintain financial oversight when the Company transferred more than $NT5.4 billion ($194 million) between its Taiwan office and City of Dreams and Altira casinos located in Macau.
TAKEAWAY: Could be an overhang on the stock.
WYNN – is coming under scrutiny for a $200,000 donation last winter to the Republican Governors Association, an organization that is now supporting Charlie Baker’s run for Massachusetts governor. Massachusetts gambling law prohibits applicants for casino licenses from donating, directly or indirectly, money or in-kind contributions to “any group, political party, committee, or association organized in support” of a Massachusetts candidate. The association is a major funder of a television ad that is currently airing in the Boston market supporting Baker’s candidacy.
TAKEAWAY: Thus far there is no evidence of any wrongdoing by WYNN.
MGM – (Bloomberg) – Renew NJ license
According to CFO Dan D'Arrigo, MGM expects to renew its NJ gaming license soon. MGM will keep 50% ownership of Borgata. MGM’s license renewal will be considered by New Jersey regulators next month.
TAKEAWAY: A definite positive, but expected.
Melco International Development –MelcoLot, controlled by Melco International Development Ltd, said on August 6, it was informed by Spanish authorities that BCN Integrated Resorts 2’s bid had passed to the second phase of the tender process, “which consists of preparation and assessment of detailed development proposals and granting of authorisations for the installation and exploitation of casinos”. It is expected that BCN World will include casinos, hotels, convention centres, leisure centres and residential areas. Each casino licensee would have to invest a minimum of EUR300 million (US$403 million) in BCN World.
TAKEAWAY: An interesting opportunity that has received little interest from the investment community. Gaming tax rate needs to be low.
RCL (Cruise Critic) – Celebrity Cancels 2015 Round-Japan Sailings Due to Charter
Two 2015 sailings to Japan on Celebrity Millennium have been canceled and another changed, due to a private charter. The charter affects passengers who booked on the 14-night Japan cruises for September 27, 2015 and October 11, 2015. The September 11, 2015 sailing is also affected and will end in Shanghai instead of Tokyo.
TAKEAWAY: The complications with sailings in Japan continues.
RCL – delayed the float out of Quantum of the Seas until Tuesday, August 12, 2014 at 4 p.m. local time. According to RCL, the delay was the result of the poor weather forecast at the Meyer Werft dockyard.
TAKEAWAY: Minor delay
New Jersey gaming (NJ.com) – Christie vetos sports betting bill
Christie's office announced that he nixed a bill (S2250) that would have allowed New Jersey to circumvent the 1992 federal law that bans sports betting in most states, after New Jersey’s challenges to the law in court failed. The bill would have repealed the state’s ban on sports betting and made it legal in casinos and at racetracks.
TAKEAWAY: Atlantic City needs help badly and Christie shot down an opportunity.
Maryland Live – On Saturday at 11 p.m., Maryland Live opened a $1 Double Gold million slot machine which requires gamblers to bet $500 per spin for a chance to win the $1 million jackpot.
TAKEAWAY: Maryland Live attempting to generate big media coverage prior to the opening of the Horseshoe casino in two weeks.
Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation. Following a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye
Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.
Takeaway: We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor". If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .
European Financial CDS - Outside of Banco Espirito Santo, which tightened by 318 bps to 344 bps on the week, swaps were nominally wider across Europe last week (+2 bps). Russia's Sberbank continued to widen (+3 bps to 355 bps) though at a slower pace than in recent weeks.
Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps widened across the board over last week. The usual suspects, Italy, Portugal and Spain, widened by 16, 17 and 9 bps, respectively. Meanwhile, German and US sovereign swaps widened by 1 bp. Japan was a notable mover on the week, widening by 7 bps (+19%) to 43 bps.
Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States. Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal. By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending. Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 15 bps.
The table below lists our current investment ideas as well as a list of potential ideas we are in the process of evaluating (watch list). We intend to update this table regularly and will provide detail on any material changes.
EVENTS THIS WEEK
8/11/14 DF Earnings Call 9am EST
8/11/14 SYY Earnings Call 10am EST
8/12/14 FLO Earnings Call 8:30am EST
8/14/14 VPCO Earnings Call 10:30am EST
8/15/14 EL Earnings Call 9:30am EST
Consumer Staples rose 0.9% week-over-week versus the broader market (S&P500) at 0.3%. XLP is up 2.1% year-to-date versus the SPX at 4.5%. XLP is the third worst performing sector in the ytd, ahead of Industrials -0.2% (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary -0.7% (XLY).
Positive Divergence: SAM 6.7%; MNST 6.5%; SMG 5.9%; THS 5.4%; TAP 5.2%
Negative Divergence: NUS -18.7%; POST -16.7%; IFF -3.4%; SODA -3.2%; ENR -2.2%
- K: Repeatable Pattern
- BNNY: This Will Be Ugly
- On Earnings Score Card Consumer Staples is Dead Last!
- Invite: Inside the Organic Food Industry & New Best Idea Call
- Just Charts – The Move Lower
From a quantitative set-up XLP is broken its immediate term TRADE duration and bullish over the intermediate term TREND duration.
The Hedgeye U.S. Consumption Model shows 6 of the 12 U.S. Economic Indicators flashing green.
We continue to believe that the group is facing numerous headwinds, including:
- U.S. consumption growth is slowing as inflation rises, in-line with the Macro team’s 1Q14 theme of #InflationAccelerating, Q2 2014 theme of #ConsumerSlowing, and Q3 2014 theme of #Q3 Slowing
- The economies and currencies of the emerging market – once the sector’s greatest growth engine – remain weak with the prospect of higher inflation in 2014 eroding real growth
- The sector is loaded with a premium valuation (P/E of 19.2x)
- Less sector Yield Chasing as Fed continues its tapering program
- The high frequency Bloomberg weekly U.S. Consumer Comfort Index (rescaled for cosmetic and not component reasons) has not seen any real improvement over the past 6 months, and fell to 36.2 versus 36.3 in the prior week
In the charts below we look at the largest companies by market cap in the Consumer Staples space from a quantitative perspective.
BUD – bearish TREND resistance = 110.04
DEO – bearish TREND resistance = 125.48
KO – bearish TREND resistance = 40.66
PEP – bullish TREND support = 87.71
GIS – bearish TREND resistance = 52.68
MDLZ – bearish TREND resistance = 37.03
KMB – bearish TREND resistance = 109.95
PG – bullish TREND support = 79.40
MO – bullish TREND support = 40.59
PM – bearish TREND resistance = 84.78
Takeaway: The signals remain bearish on an intermediate term duration but are more balanced in the short-term.
Current Best Ideas:
Following the impressive correction two weeks ago, last week actually saw the XLF gain 0.7% bringing the YTD move to +2.4%. The outlook is fairly mixed at the moment. Based on our Financial Risk Monitor Summary below, there is a roughly even mix of positive and negative signals in the short-term but more red than green in the intermediate term duration.
Here are a few of the notable callouts on the week:
* High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 12.0 bps last week, ending the week at 5.95% versus 6.07% the prior week.
* 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 198 bps, -4 bps tighter than a week ago.
* CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index fell -1.2%, ending the week at 292 versus 296 the prior week. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have decreased -2.4%
Financial Risk Monitor Summary
• Short-term(WoW): Negative / 3 of 12 improved / 3 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged
• Intermediate-term(WoW): Negative / 2 of 12 improved / 6 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged
• Long-term(WoW): Negative / 2 of 12 improved / 4 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged
1. U.S. Financial CDS - Overall it was a fairly uneventful week for US Financials as roughly half the complex widened modestly while the other half tightened. On balance, there was a net change of 0 bps.
Tightened the most WoW: RDN, AON, CB
Widened the most WoW: GNW, AIG, MET
Tightened the most WoW: AGO, MBI, RDN
Widened the most MoM: GNW, MET, PRU
2. European Financial CDS - Outside of Banco Espirito Santo, which tightened by 318 bps to 344 bps on the week, swaps were nominally wider across Europe last week (+2 bps). Russia's Sberbank continued to widen (+3 bps to 355 bps) though at a slower pace than in recent weeks.
3. Asian Financial CDS - Indian and Chinese bank swaps were slightly tighter on the week with Bank of China tightening the most (-7 bps to 128 bps). In Japan, the picture was mixed as Daiwa tightened by 5 bps but Nomura, Sumitomo and Mizuho all widened by 2 bps.
4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps widened across the board over last week. The usual suspects, Italy, Portugal and Spain, widened by 16, 17 and 9 bps, respectively. Meanwhile, German and US sovereign swaps widened by 1 bp. Japan was a notable mover on the week, widening by 7 bps (+19%) to 43 bps.
5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 12.0 bps last week, ending the week at 5.95% versus 6.07% the prior week.
6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 3.0 points last week, ending at 1873.
7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread fell 0.3 basis points last week, ending the week at 21.2 bps this week versus last week’s print of 21.51 bps.
8. CRB Commodity Price Index – The CRB index fell -1.2%, ending the week at 292 versus 296 the prior week. As compared with the prior month, commodity prices have decreased -2.4% We generally regard changes in commodity prices on the margin as having meaningful consumption implications.
9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States. Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal. By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending. Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 15 bps.
10. Chinese Interbank Rate (Shifon Index) – The Shifon Index fell 16 basis points last week, ending the week at 3.04% versus last week’s print of 3.196%. The Shifon Index measures banks’ overnight lending rates to one another, a gauge of systemic stress in the Chinese banking system.
11. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China rose 0.3% last week, or 8 yuan/ton, to 3139 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.
12. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 198 bps, -4 bps tighter than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.
13. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.2% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.6% downside to TRADE support.
Joshua Steiner, CFA
Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT
daily macro intelligence
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