Poll of the Day Recap: Bitcoin Isn't Fit to Rule the Virtual World (Yet)

It seems like everyone and their mom is talking about Bitcoin. There’s the Winklevoss twins, the Mt.Gox debacle, the gossip about who actually created the digital currency, Warren Buffett’s comment that the coin is a “mirage,” and now news today that Fortress Investment Group is entering the fray.


So we wanted to know in our Poll of the Day: Do you have any intention to ever use Bitcoin?


At the time of this post, approximately 67% of respondents said NO and 33% said YES. 


Of the voter comments we received, those who voted NO said that infrastructure was missing, and that it’s “not really useful in any part of my life in the real world.  Maybe if I moved to SimCity...or wanted to launder some drug money.” A commenter also responded, “When merchants universally accept it and it actually has a definable value, then maybe I'd try it. Both of those events won't happen in my lifetime, though.”


One voter asked, “How do you manage risk using the most volatile 'currency' on the planet?”


As for the YES commenters, one person noted that “the Bitcoin protocol platform is relevant and valuable,” and that  “some form of this currency will become mainstream in the next 5-10 years.”


More to be revealed. Expect this media storm to rage on. 


Poll of the Day Recap: Bitcoin Isn't Fit to Rule the Virtual World (Yet) - bitcoin 16x9 1600%20%20%20It%20seems%20like%20everyone%20and%20their%20mom%20is%20talking%20about%20Bitcoin.%20There’s%20the%20Winklevoss%20twins,%20the%20Mt.Gox%20debacle,%20the%20gossip%20about%20who%20actually%20created%20the%20digital%20currency,%20Warren%20Buffett’s%20comment%20that%20the%20coin%20is%20a%20“mirage,”%20and%20now%20news%20today%20that%20Fortress%20Investment%20Group%20is%20entering%20the%20fray.%20%20%20So%20we%20wanted%20to%20know%20in%20our%20Poll%20of%20the%20Day:%20Do%20you%20have%20any%20intention%20to%20ever%20use%20Bitcoin?%20%20%20At%20the%20time%20of%20this%20post,%20approximately%2069%%20of%20respondents%20said%20NO%20and%2031%%20said%20YES.%20%20%20%20Of%20the%20voter%20comments%20we%20received,%20those%20who%20voted%20NO%20said%20that%20infrastructure%20was%20missing,%20and%20that%20it’s%20“not%20really%20useful%20in%20any%20part%20of%20my%20life%20in%20the%20real%20world.%20%20Maybe%20if%20I%20moved%20to%20SimCity...or%20wanted%20to%20launder%20some%20drug%20money.”%20A%20commenter%20also%20responded,%20“When%20merchants%20universally%20accept%20it%20and%20it%20actually%20has%20a%20definable%20value,%20then%20maybe%20I'd%20try%20it.%20Both%20of%20those%20events%20won't%20happen%20in%20my%20lifetime,%20though.”%20%20%20One%20voter%20asked,%20“How%20do%20you%20manage%20risk%20using%20the%20most%20volatile%20'currency'%20on%20the%20planet?”%20%20%20As%20for%20the%20YES%20commenters,%20one%20person%20noted%20that%20“the%20Bitcoin%20protocol%20platform%20is%20relevant%20and%20valuable,”%20and%20that%20%20“some%20form%20of%20this%20currency%20will%20become%20mainstream%20in%20the%20next%205-10%20years.”%20%20%20More%20to%20be%20revealed.%20Expect%20this%20media%20storm%20to%20rage%20on.%20%20CONNECT%20TO%20HEDGEYE.%20%20http:/" class="embedded-content">

Oversold, Again: SP500, Gold, Bonds

Takeaway: Yellen will allow #InflationAccelerating to continue towards the “committee’s objective", which will, in turn, slow real GDP growth faster.

Both the SP500 and Gold are signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold within bullish intermediate-term TRENDs into the close today. This should come as no surprise as the 30-day inverse correlation between USD (which is signaling overbought) and SPX/Gold is -0.9.


Most of this comes on the heels of another reaction to the Fed’s confused forecast:


“I do want to emphasize that this is a forecast”

-Janet Yellen


Indeed. And her forecasts on growth and inflation are wrong at least 2/3rds of the time.


She’s also saying she’s going to let #InflationAccelerating continue towards the “committee’s objective.” Which will, in turn, slow real GDP growth faster. Then she’ll get bearish on the economy after that.


Hedgeye Playbook says:


  1. Short USD (UUP) on the overbought signal
  2. Buy Gold (GLD) on the oversold signal
  3. Buy Bonds (TLT) on the oversold signal




Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Oversold, Again: SP500, Gold, Bonds - DXY


Oversold, Again: SP500, Gold, Bonds - GOLD


Oversold, Again: SP500, Gold, Bonds - UST 10Y


Oversold, Again: SP500, Gold, Bonds - SPX

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.47%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.71%

Jordan (Finally) Runs! | $NKE

Takeaway: Nike made a good (long overdue) move here.

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research excerpt from Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. For more information on our services click here.


First Look At The Jordan Flight Runner


Jordan (Finally) Runs! | $NKE - Jordan Flight Runner 01

  • "...the Jordan Flight Runner is the Jordan Brand's first-ever running specific model. The innovative runner aims to take comfort and performance to the next level with a Dynamic Fit lacing system and Zoom Air cushioning."
  • "The Jordan Flight Runner is set to officially release May 1st, and will retail for $110."


Now this news item may strike some people as odd. But it actually makes perfect sense. 


The bottom line here is Jordan broke out of being just a basketball brand a decade ago. The NBA is joined by the NFL, MLB, PGA and lacrosse (among other sports) as places where you will find athletes wearing Jordans. 


So why should the Nike sidestep the most popular silhouette in the US? (Yes, that would be running.)  We’re not sure if they’re geared for fashion or to actually run in, but there are two things we know:

  1. This move was long overdue
  2. They will sell. Like hot cakes.

Smart move by Nike here. Long overdue.

Connect To Hedgeye.


Takeaway: In looking at those who left LULU -- where did they go? Can they win them back? Here's what we learned last time. Update on 3/24.

In looking at those who left LULU -- where did they go? Can they win them back? Here's what we learned last time. Update on 3/24.


Here's the third note in a series of five in advance of our LULU Consumer Survey results on Monday March 24th at 11am ET.  When we polled consumers three months ago, we pulled away some clear insights. The concerns largely outweighed the strengths, which foreshadowed the company's results, and ultimately the stock price.


We're re-running our survey to gauge the incremental change over the past quarter, with the goal of seeing whether LULU is making progress (which could get us more constructive on the name) or not.


In preparation for 'Round 2' we want to offer up some of the notable takeaways from our last survey, as they'll be framing the discussion on Monday.




We asked people who took business away from LULU where they are spending their dollars. This is really a 2-part answer. First off, we ask which stores/brands they're now shopping instead of LULU.  You'll find those results in the first chart. The columns don't add up to 100% because someone could have converted one visit to a LULU store where they bought a full outfit into one visit at each of three different stores.  The big winner is Nike at 34% of visits, followed by VS/Pink, UnderArmour, and Old Navy (which was a lower-income phenomena).


The more important part of the analysis, we think, is in the following chart, which shows the dispersion of items purchased by dollar value. All of the columns add up to 100% -- meaning that it represents the dispersion of where the actual sales went, not just where the people shopped.  Again, Nike came out on top, but a surprise to us was how close UnderArmour came to Nike. The reality is that Nike has been trying to build a women's business for the past two decades, and UA seems to be doing in about 5 yrs what took NKE 20.


The punchline, however, is that there are two companies in all of retail that we wouldn't want to lose share to -- Nike, and UnderArmour. When those two win share, they rarely give it back.







We asked the people who had left LULU -- or taken some of their purchases away for whatever reason -- if they would go back to LULU again in the future. The good news is that about 44% said that they are likely to go back, or (18%) will definitely go back. The bad news is that 10.7% said that they will 'definitely not' return, and 21.4% said that they're 'unlikely' to return to LULU. That's 32% of the people we surveyed who have taken a part of their business elsewhere that LULU is going to have to fight to get back. Out of all the questions in our survey, this is one of the key issues that we'll be looking at to see how things have changed on the margin over the past three months.





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