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NKE: We Need A Redistribution

Keith shorted Nike today in the Hedgeye portfolio as he did not believe that the positive call one pundit made last night was worth its salt. We’re seeing all the right moves by the company to lead in both market share and profitability in this space, which should accelerate growth 2-3 quarters out.  Unfortunately, Nike’s latest miss might not prove to be a one-off event. The absolute growth, and rationale behind it, is fine with us, but we have a mismatch between Nike’s communication and the Street’s expectations.

 

Let’s look at the modeling trajectory for the next five quarters. Nike uncharacteristically left its guidance wide open for interpretation. Don Blair (CFO) is not one to use words loosely. But saying ‘next year sales up hsd or better, GM% down, and leverage SG&A, but not enough to offset weaker GM’ might be fine for annual guidance – but to give virtually zero color on the timing by quarter given all the moving parts is tough (especially after having just spanked the Street with a 300bp 4Q GM hit). Am I faulting the company for its guidance practice? No. I’m not a big fan of the quarterly guidance game. But a ‘no guidance’ policy also has its consequences. It allows the Street’s models to fall out of synch with financial reality. That’s what we’re got today.

 

 

NKE: HEDGEYE MODELING ASSUMPTIONS 

NKE: We Need A Redistribution - tBLW

 

Nike’s stock works when it is beating earnings. Period. I’m at $4.85 vs. the Street at $4.76 next year. That $0.11 delta is great, but the reality is that I’m $0.24 ahead in 4Q. For the four quarters leading up to May12  I’m below.

 

So…something’s gotta change. Either my model – which I have no reason to do today – or wait for the Street to ‘fine tune’ its expectations.

 

Our concern, of course, is that this redistribution comes alongside F4Q11 earnings in June.

More importantly, it is that this is a market that will give Consumer Discretionary stocks zero benefit of the doubt – especially while lesser companies are on the tape printing more respectable numbers.

 

The key here is that our thesis for the retail space overall calls for a severe breakdown in earnings by the end of June. Nike’s trajectory should accelerate when the rest of the pack lags.

 

But it’s a long time til the end of QE2 in June.

If you can be nimble, the be nimble. Lighten up, or protect yourself on the downside.

 

There'll be a time to buy this stock this year. But this simply is not it.


Wait & Watch: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

Despite registering some of the most alarming combo volume/volatility studies I have ever registered in my risk management model, the SP500’s mean reversion toward the prior closing highs continues. We’re headed right back to the zone I was highlighting in mid-February and, once again, I think the probabilities of a market crash will start to go up if we get there (1).

 

I don’t use the word crash very often – primarily because I don’t get the interconnected signals that call for using the word very often. There is a big difference between calling for a correction as opposed to a crash. Over the course of the last 3 years we’ve built a track record in calling for some of both.

 

The three main factors that are flashing amber lights in my model right here and now are: 

  1. The US Dollar – at a point, correction becomes crash… and a crashing USD (from here) is going to deliver you $120-130 oil.
  2. Volatility (VIX) – after an unprecedented -43% collapse in less than 3-weeks, the VIX is holding its long-term TAIL of support (15.40)
  3. Sentiment – today’s Bullish/Bearish II Sentiment survey blew out to an extreme (Bulls minus Bears = 41 points) 

The reality of the institutionalization of our business is that a lot of people have to chase performance. The only problem with that is that there is no historical basis for everyone winning with the same strategy in perpetuity. There is a gargantuan amount of correlation risk to the USD being built into commodity and equity markets. The Bernank is holding the bag in creating both expectations of easy money and the net long exposure associated with it.

 

The math tells me a lot of people effectively are no longer allowed to be bearish (and I mean legitimately bearish, running -20-30% net short). Waiting and watching for my price level to short the SP500 again has been my plan. That level is currently 1 and I don’t plan on being one of the people who says they couldn’t see the next swoon coming.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Wait & Watch: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1


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IGT F2Q PREVIEW

We are expecting an in-line quarter and guidance.

 

 

F2Q Details:

 

We are projecting revenues of $475MM and EPS of $0.19 when IGT reports its F2Q11 results on April 21st, $10MM and 1 penny below street estimates.

 

We have factored in company guidance that F2Q will have the lowest margins in FY11, with 3Q and 4Q getting better sequentially but not exceeding 1Q margin levels, into our numbers.  

 

We estimate that IGT will report $208MM of product sales at 48.8% gross margins.

  • Domestic product revenues of $124MM and gross margin of $63MM (50.5%)
    • Domestic box sales of $70MM: 4.9k domestic unit sales - comprised of 4,200 replacements and 700 new units at an ASP of $14,250
      • IGT has recently started a new promotion similar to Dynamix (although we have no details on it at the moment) which should keep reported ASP’s at depressed levels for the remainder of the year.  Excluding promotional activity, our understanding is that the IGT has modestly increased pricing (1-2%)
      • New NA shipments should include shipments to Ocean Downs (43% share), Trump, and recognition of some of Gun Lake units (45% share)
    • Domestic non-box sales of $55MM, up 10% YoY
  • International product revenues of $84MM and gross margins of $40MM (46.5%)
    • $62MM of box sales: 5.3k international unit sales at an ASP of $11.7­k
      • Unit sales should include shipments to Galaxy Macau and some Italian shipments.  The first of roughly 1,500 Italian for sale shipments started last quarter and should continue through FY2011.
    • Non-box sales of $22MM
    • The company is now thinking that international unit shipments will be in the 22,000 range for the year. They realize that the Street could use some help in modeling international shipments and are working on better disclosure/guidance going forward.

Gaming operations revenue of $267.5MM at 61.5% gross margins

  • We expect the install base to increase by 100 units to 56,800 and average win per day to increase 1.4% YoY to $52.4
  • The Italian CIRSA units (~1,500) will be participation units but we don’t have them starting to come in until F1Q12
  • IGT will get 36% of Acqueduct units coming online in 4Q11
  • The company expects gaming operations yields to increase throughout the rest of the year and to see the install base up modestly as well.  Although they did caution that international growth which has been relatively strong for them could put a hamper on yield growth
  • Expect gross margins for FY11 to be ~62%

Other assumptions:

  • SG&A of $82MM (should come down sequentially given the absence of G2E expenses)
  • D&A: $20MM
  • R&D: $52.5MM
  • Net interest expense: $20MM

MPEL: STREET FINALLY MOVING UP

Unfortunately, we are coming down for Q1. Low VIP hold will drag down margins disproportionately despite strong top line.

 

 

Our issue with MPEL’s Q1 can be considered cosmetic.  Not that we are suggesting a miss, but we are no longer predicting a big beat.  The ongoing takeaway is actually quite positive.  Volumes were strong in Q1 as were revenues and if sustainable, MPEL should blow away estimates going forward, assuming normal hold.  However, because VIP hold percentage was very low, it affects EBITDA disproportionately.  Essentially, MPEL primarily maintains rolling junket commission structures which are based on volumes not revenue share.  Hold risk stays with MPEL.  Of course, with strong hold, MPEL captures the upside.

 

Despite having better than expected volumes on the VIP side, luck was not on MPEL’s side this quarter.  While we knew that the hold percentage wasn’t great for the first two months of the quarter, March’s luck was simply terrible.  Therefore, what we believed would be a blow away quarter now just looks like consensus.  That said, luck comes and goes, but volumes are a much better predictor of a companies’ health and on that front, MPEL continues to exceed our expectations.  Unfortunately, given the recent run up in the stock and investor concerns about the impact of Galaxy Macau, a meet may not be good enough this quarter. 

 

We estimate that MPEL will report $788MM of net revenue and $125MM of EBITDA in 1Q2011.

 

 

CITY OF DREAMS


We are projecting net revenue of $487MM and EBITDA of $89MM.  Our revenue estimate is 2% ahead of consensus, but our EBITDA estimate is 6% lower than the Street’s.

  • Net casino win of $466MM (gross win of $644MM)
  • Net VIP table win of $284MM
    • We assume 18.5% direct play, $19.9BN of RC volume (a massive 102% YoY increase), 2.33% hold and a 90bps rebate rate
    • We estimate that in March, CoD’s VIP hold plunged to just 1.9%.  Given that most of the CoD’s junkets get compensated based on RC volume vs. RevShare, flow through and EBITDA margins are very sensitive to win rates.
    • We estimate that low hold impacted CoD net revenues by $100MM and EBITDA by $40-50MM
  • Mass table win of $143MM
    • Mass drop of $680MM (up 42% YoY) and hold of 21%
  • Slot win of $38MM
    • $653MM handle and slot win of 5.85%
  • $21MM of net non-gaming revenue
  • Variable costs of $321MM ($251MM of gaming taxes and $60MM of incremental junket commissions)
  • $17MM of non-gaming expenses
  • $60MM of fixed expenses

ALTIRA


We estimate that Altira will report net revenue of $268MM and EBITDA of $45MM, 3% and 2% ahead of Street estimates, respectively.

  • Net casino win of $268MM (gross win of $382.5MM)
  • Net VIP table win of $248MM
    • $12.7BN of RC volume (28% YoY increase), 2.85% hold and a 90bps rebate rate
  • We estimate that in March, Altira’s VIP hold dropped to 2.7%
  • Mass table win of $20.5MM
    • Mass drop of $117MM (up 65% YoY) and hold of 17.5%
  • Variable costs of $198MM ($149MM of gaming taxes and $45MM of incremental junket commissions)
  • $22MM of fixed expenses

MOCHA


Mocha slot revenue of $33MM and EBITDA of $9MM


Look Out To May

 

We have two months of sales noise until we see the extent to which the masters of our economy have pulled the goalie. Calendar shift provides some ground cover (i.e. excuse). Then the choice between growth, gross margin sustenance, both, or none of the above will become apparent for each retailer.

 

Not too many people will dispute that sales will take a hit when the 16 companies left that actually report same store sales print their numbers. The biggest factor is the Easter shift, which was very meaningful this year versus last (it was April 4 last year, and is April 24th this year).

 

By our math, last years’ spike accounted for roughly +11% growth in comps.  If we get aggregate numbers in the (-1%) range for March 2011, we’d be looking at a steady rate of about +5% in the 2-year trend, and +1% in the 3-year (which we find most relevant). Anything below that, we’re going to be looking at a deceleration a month or two before we’d otherwise expect to see it.

 

Look Out To May - PCE SSS GvtR 3 11

 

Putting on our Historical Macro Hat

 

Let’s put our Macro hats on for a minute and not worry about a couple months worth of timing, or whether jeggings are still ok to wear this Spring. Take a longer look at two key components of consumption: 1) Taxes, and 2) the Personal Savings Rate.

 

Let’s go back a few decades to 1947. As you see, for the better part of 40 years, they moved in tandem – for the most part.  Consumers felt good, they got a good return on their cash  (even if sitting idle in a bank account), so not only did they save a greater proportion of income, but did so while taxes went higher.   Then that relationship started to break down in 1985, and was completely polar by the 1990s.

 

We’re not trying to give a history lesson. Everyone knows these numbers, as well as the political and economic forces that drove them.  But today, we’re looking at the personal savings rate of 5.6%. There has been only three times since 1991 where it was higher – and those were all over the past six months). 

 

As it relates to the Personal Tax Rate, it stands at 9.5%. There has been only five periods since 1949 where it’s been this low.

 

So from a Consumer analysts’ perspective, we’re stuck with a near 20-year (close to a generation) high savings rate even though Bernanke and Geithner give virtually zero percent interest on our cash. Other countries are unceremoniously unloading US Dollars. And our collective tax rate is sitting near all time low. The government probably can’t cut taxes any further, and mathematically they can’t take interest rates down enough to matter. What’s going to stimulate the Consumer???  

 

Look Out To May - PCE SS 3 11 2

 

Employment and wage growth is one of the answers, no doubt.   The chart below is particularly noteworthy, which shows the year/year change in real average weekly earnings.  At risk of stating the obvious, come May/June we’ll really geta  solid glimpse into the Consumers’ earnings power, and whether that is translating itself into enough Gross Margin dollars to offset cost inflation (keeping in mind that it is about the April/May timeframe that the higher costs begin to flow through financial statements).

 

Look Out To May - PCE SS 3 11 3

 

 


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