prev

LEISURE LETTER (11/04/2014)

Tickers: LVS, MGM, SGMS, HLT, RCL

EVENTS

  • Nov 4:
    • Gaming Referendums:
      • Massachusetts Question 3 (repeal casino law)
      • Colorado Amendment 68 (allow casinos in Mes, Pueblo and Arapahoe counties)
      • California Proposition 48 (veto gaming compact with North Fork Rancheria for off-reservation casino in Madera)
      • Rhode Island Question 1/2 (operate table games at Newport Grand)
    • RHP Q3 earnings 10am .
    • HPT Q3 earnings 1pm
    • AWAY Q3 earnings 5pm
  • Nov 6:
    • MPEL Q3 earnings 8:30am , pw MPEL
    • PNK Q3 earnings 10am , code 27759617
    • BEL Q3 earnings 10am , ID 12457691
    • DIS Q3 earnings 5pm , pin 38177041
  • Nov 10:
    • CZR Q3 earnings 4:30pm , pin 20797507
    • SNOW FYQ1 earnings 5pm
    • SJM Q3 earnings
  • Nov 11
    • Genting Singapore Q3 earnings

COMPANY NEWS

DON:AU – signed an exclusive term sheet to acquire “a significant gaming and hospitality business in Cambodia” Donaco said it would fund the deal via existing cash reserves and new debt facilities, together with an equity component for the vendor. The final acquisition price has not yet been set. Donaco International operates the recently-opened, Aristo International casino hotel in Vietnam which is a brand new 5 star hotel with 428 rooms, up to 50 gaming tables, 62 slots (max 150), and max 150 electronic table games.  As background, Donaco International was founded in 2001 by MD Joey Lim Keong Yew and his late grandfather, Tan Sri Lim Goh Tong (founder and chairman of the Genting Group)

Takeaway: Joey Lim Keong Yew and Benjamin Lim Keong Hoe appear to be emulating their uncle, Genting Chairman and CEO Tans Sri Lim Kok Thay, but thus far on a smaller scale.  A new Asian regional competitor for NagaCorp?

 

LVS – filed a mixed securities shelf of indeterminate size with Use of Proceeds " General corporate purposes may include future construction and development projects, additions to working capital, capital expenditures, repayment of debt, the financing of possible acquisitions and investments or stock repurchases."  The filing can be viewed here 

 Takeaway:  Raising money but for what? Tender offer coming?


MGM (LVRJ) The National Finals Rodeo plans to stay at UNLV’s Thomas & Mack Center for another decade rather than move to the MGM Resorts International/AEG arena.  The 10-year agreement is expected to be signed before the 10-day rodeo opens on Dec. 4. One of the key reasons for remaining at Thomas & Mack was reportedly because Thomas & Mack has two symmetrical tunnels, which allows Thomas & Mack to efficiently handle timed rodeo events such as steer wrestling and team roping.  

 

SGMS – announced it has signed a new contract to continue as the exclusive provider of instant games and related services for the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.  The new contract, which was awarded through a competitive procurement process, continues the successful relationship Scientific Games and the Lottery have shared since 2003.  The contract will begin January 1, 2015 with an initial term of seven years plus seven one-year extension options.

Takeaway: A strong renewal for SGMS and its lottery business.

 

GTECH - sharesholders approved cross-border merger of GTECH into Georgia Worldwide ("NewCo").  The court-convened shareholders’ meeting of NewCo to approve the Merger will be held on December 15, 2014.  Furthermore, here is the Q/A document: http://www.gtech.com/sites/default/files/Q%26A%20ENG.pdf

 

HLT – investment banks on behalf of Blackstone placed 90 million shares (103.5 million with the green shoe) at $25/share.

Takeaway: Modestly higher than HLT's September 30 closing price of $24.63/share.

 

RCL – repurchased 3.5 million shares of common stock held by Awilhelmsen AS (Awilhelmsen).  The repurchase price per share will be$67.45, which is equal to the price paid by a financial institution to Awilhelmsen in connection with its sale of 3.5 million shares conducted yesterday November 3, 2014 pursuant to Rule 144 of the Securities Act.  The repurchase is expected to close on November 6, 2014.

Takeaway:  While the sale is only 1.6% of RCL's outstanding shares and has a positive penny impact on 2014 EPS, it was a surprise and we wonder if Awilhelmsen will continue to unwind its 16% RCL ownership in the months ahead.  Awilhelmsen doesn't seem to imply that in its 'diversification purposes' comment but why would they admit its intention to completely unwinde? This also raises speculation that RCL and its Board may put in an official share repurchase program soon.

 

RCL (CruiseLawNews)  Royal Caribbean Explorer of the Seas was hit with rough weather. The cruise ship is sailing on its 14 night re-positioning cruise to Port Canaveral.  Two lifeboats on deck 4 were reportedly dislodged and water crashed through glass doors and flooded the interior of the ship. Allegedly the water temporarily disabled the aft elevators. 

INDUSTRY NEWS

Macau October GGR & Market Share (DICJ & GGRAsia) totaled HKD27.209 billion, a decrease of 23.17% YoY and up 9.63% sequentially.  According to sources, the market shares are as follows:

  • Sand China 23.7% 
  • SJM 23.4% 
  • Galaxy 21.4%
  • Melco 14.3%
  • Wynn Macau 8.9% 
  • MGM China 8.2%.

Takeaway:  MGM and WYNN were the clear laggards in October, probably due to low VIP hold. We will have the October details later this week. 

 

Japan (DailyMail) According to sources, Japanese lawmakers are set to indefinitely postpone legalizing casinos as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose cabinet has been hit by a series of scandals, lacks the political leverage to pass a bill this year, sources directly involved in the process said.

 

Pro-casino lawmakers intend to push back a vote on the bill instead of trying to pass it in the current parliamentary session ending this month, three people directly involved in pushing the casino bill said.  Although they aim to keep the bill on the table, the sources said there was a considerable chance it would not come up for discussion even in 2015.  Higher-priority bills, including those related to national defense, are likely to take up debate time in the next parliament session, they said.  "If they can't pass it now, I doubt whether they'll ever be able to pass it," one of the sources said.

 

Another source said there was a chance legislation could be delayed by three or four years, meaning actual casino development may have to wait until around 2024.  Toru Mihara, who teaches at the Osaka University of Commerce and was one of the architects of the casino bill, said failure to pass the bill in this session would be a "total loss of face" for Abe's cabinet.  He also said the bill will be difficult to pass next year, as newer topics come up in parliament. 

Takeaway:  After all the hoopla, this happens. This year had the best chance for passage.  Now the outlook for Japan gaming is much more murky. A big potential catalyst for LVS, WYNN, and MGM is likely gone.

 

Chinese Corruption Crackdown(Xinhua) China will establish a new anti-graft body to further strengthen pressure on "unprecedentedly serious" corruption issues, deputy Procurator-General Qiu Xueqiang has said. Qiu said that the plan for a new anti-graft agency was put forward by the Party committee of the Supreme People's Procuratorate (SPP) and was approved by the central authority.

Takeaway: Corruption to remain the focus of Mainland Government enforcement - a persistent headwind for Macau.

MACRO

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  We're seeing bottoms up slowing in Europe cruise pricing in our monthly survey. Europe has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely. Following CCL's earnings release, we recently turned negative on those stocks based on the negative European thesis. 

 

Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on consumer spending and believes in muted inflation, a Quad4 set-up.  Following  a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye Macro/Financials team is decidedly less positive. 

Takeaway:  We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.


Burning Yen: Unintended Consequences

Client Talking Points

YEN

The Yen is burnt to a bloody crisp, trading $113.31 vs. USD last and has one of the widest immediate-term risk ranges we have ever seen in FX (109.37-113.66) so that should continue to perpetuate both FX market (and equity + fixed income linked) volatility.

OIL

Yen Down = Oil Down (Dollar Up) and now you see the next leg down -2.7% WTI to $76.66/barrel as whoever was trying to defend the $80 line falls down – this is textbook #Quad4 deflation and its catching up to equity and fixed income expectations, by sector.

SECTORS

Sector variance continues to rise as Oil and inflation expectations crash (Oil -28% since June); Energy Stocks (XLE) -1.6% on the day yesterday to -12% year-to-date (Basic Materials, XLB, -0.7% to -5.2%) vs. Healthcare (XLV) which #Quad4 likes long (pricing power) +0.1% to +12.3% year-to-date.

Asset Allocation

CASH 67% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 0% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 29% INTL CURRENCIES 4%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
EDV

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). U.S. real GDP growth is unlikely to come in anywhere in the area code of consensus projections of 3-plus percent. And it is becoming clear to us that market participants are interpreting the Fed’s dovish shift as signaling cause for concern with respect to the growth outlook. We remain on other side of Consensus Macro positions (bearish on Oil, bullish on Treasuries, bearish on SPX) and still have high conviction in our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.

TLT

We continue to think long-term interest rates are headed in the direction of both reported growth and growth expectations – i.e. lower. In light of that, we encourage you to remain long of the long bond. The performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities should continue to widen over the next two to three months. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove. We certainly hope you had the Long Bond (TLT) on versus the Russell 2000 (short side) as the performance divergence in being long #GrowthSlowing hit its widest for 2014 YTD (ex-reinvesting interest).

RH

Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Let's be clear, $FL is not in trouble bc Ken Hicks (CEO) is leaving, Hicks is leaving bc FL is in trouble.

@HedgeyeRetail

QUOTE OF THE DAY

A wise man gets more use from his enemies than a fool from his friends.

-Baltasar Gracian

STAT OF THE DAY

Japanese Household Spending is down -6% year-over-year, Japanese Housing Starts are down -14% year-over-year and Japanese Construction Spending is down -40% year-over-year.


THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK

Takeaway: Our Macro Playbook is a daily 1-page summary of our investment themes, core ETF recommendations and proprietary quantitative market context.

INVESTMENT CONCLUSIONS

Long Ideas/Overweight Recommendations

  1. iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (MUB)
  2. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
  3. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)
  4. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
  5. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Short Ideas/Underweight Recommendations

  1. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
  2. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
  3. iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB)
  4. iShares MSCI European Monetary Union ETF (EZU)
  5. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

 

QUANT SIGNALS & RESEARCH CONTEXT

Manufacturing “Surges” In October… Or Did It?: Yesterday there was quite a bit of newsy fanfare surrounding the strong ISM Manufacturing PMI print. We think that optimism is quite a bit misguided in the sense that the Markit PMI data – which a substantially more robust indicator – slowed sharply in OCT on both the Manufacturing and Services fronts. The weakness in the Markit Manufacturing PMI data is in line with the trend of slowing growth in Durable Goods New Orders, Core CapEx Orders, as well as waning inventory build in the 3Q14 GDP print. Effectively, this would imply the Markit data series is more in line with economic reality versus whatever the heck the ISM or other widely-followed Consensus Macro “survey” data is pointing to in defense of a fledgling fundamental bull case for U.S. equities. Some might accuse us of data mining, but we’d gladly point them to our “data mining “ work from 2013 when we were equally as bullish on U.S. growth and domestic demand-oriented equities (i.e. Russell 2000) as we are bearish on those factors today.

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit PMI Index Info

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit Manufacturing PMI

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - Markit Services PMI

 

Defense Remains Offensive: If domestic manufacturing activity was expanding at the robust pace now-widely assumed by consensus, why on earth does the U.S. equity market continue to be led higher by defensive sectors? Specifically, the three sectors exhibiting the highest degree of positive momentum on a multi-duration basis are: Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care. Moreover, the XLU’s +2.0x VAMDMI reading is actually the highest across all of global macro and double that of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). The performance chase into year-end is officially on in large-cap U.S. equities, but will this behavioral factor be strong enough to offset the slowing economic cycle or the behavior factors associated with the most illiquid asset price bubble in U.S. equity and corporate credit market history? You know where we stand with respect to that question…

 

THE HEDGEYE MACRO PLAYBOOK - TACRM 20 20

 

***CLICK HERE to download the full TACRM presentation.***

 

TRACKING OUR ACTIVE MACRO THEMES

#Quad4 (introduced 10/2/14): Our models are forecasting a continued slowing in the pace of domestic economic growth, as well as a further deceleration in inflation here in Q4. The confluence of these two events is likely to perpetuate a rise in volatility across asset classes as broad-based expectations for a robust economic recovery and tighter monetary policy are met with bearish data that is counter to the consensus narrative.

 

Headlines & Under-Hoods: Sept. Income & Spending (10/31)

Hangovers & Late-Cycle Juggernauts: 3Q GDP & Initial Claims (10/30)

 

#EuropeSlowing (introduced 10/2/14): Is ECB President Mario Draghi Europe's savior? Despite his ability to wield a QE fire hose, our view is that inflation via currency debasement does not produce sustainable economic growth. We believe select member states will struggle to implement appropriate structural reforms and fiscal management to induce real growth.

 

Early Look: All Boxed In (10/22)

 

#Bubbles (introduced 10/2/14): The current economic cycle is cresting and the confluence of policy-induced yield-chasing and late-cycle speculation is inflating spread risk across asset classes. The clock is ticking on the value proposition of the latest policy to inflate as the prices many investors are paying for financial assets is significantly higher than the value they are receiving in return.

 

Early Look: Deflated Disputants (10/30)

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

About the Hedgeye Macro Playbook

The Hedgeye Macro Playbook aspires to present investors with the robust quantitative signals, well-researched investment themes and actionable ETF recommendations required to dynamically allocate assets and front-run regime changes across global financial markets. The securities highlighted above represent our top ten investment recommendations based on our active macro themes, which themselves stem from our proprietary four-quadrant Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) framework. The securities are ranked according to our calculus of the immediate-term risk/reward of going long or short at the prior closing price, which itself is based on our proprietary analysis of price, volume and volatility trends. Effectively, it is a dynamic ranking of the order in which we’d buy or sell the securities today.


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

CHART OF THE DAY | Write This Down: #Quad4 Deflation

Yen Down = Oil Down (Dollar Up) and now you see the next leg down -2.7% WTI to $76.66/barrel as whoever was trying to defend the $80 line falls down – this is textbook #Quad4 deflation and its catching up to equity and fixed income expectations, by sector.

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Write This Down: #Quad4 Deflation - 11.04.14 Chart


Write It Down

“Write down, therefore, what you have seen, and what is happening, and what will happen afterwards.”

-Revelation 1:19

 

No, I’m not going all religious on you this morning. That’s the opening volley from Jim Rickards in his recent book, The Death of Money. For those of you who missed it, I had a Real Conversation @HedgeyeTV with Rickards earlier in the year that you can watch here.

 

Do you write it down? What is “it”? And what do you do when something macro is happening that hasn’t happened for a very long period of time (like #deflation)? Once market expectations go through a phase transition from inflation policies to deflation, what will happen afterwards?

 

I’ve been writing down real-time market quotes, data, research, etc. in my notebook for 15 years and I have only seen versions of what I have been writing down for the last 10 months 2x: October 2007 and October 2008. Neither were bullish historical reference points and neither were the same.

 

Write It Down - 3

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

To review, what is #Quad4 Deflation? In our risk management process (rate of change) it’s when the second derivatives in both growth and inflation are slowing, at the same time. These signals are both non-linear, and dynamic.

 

“There has been no episode of persistent deflation in the United States since the period from 1; as a result, Americans have practically no living memory of deflation.” (The Death of Money, pg 9)

 

I was in LA yesterday (San Francisco today) and, to a degree, I think that’s why we’ve been getting so many moments of silence in one-on-one Institutional Investor meetings as of late. It’s really hard for objective risk managers to absorb a scenario they’ve really never had to deal with.

 

“Objective”? Yes, as in this is what the market told you about #Deflation expectations yesterday:

 

  1. US Dollar up +0.3% to +8.8% YTD
  2. WTI Crude Oil down -2.8% to #crashing -20.5% YTD
  3. Energy Stocks (XLE) down -1.6% to -2.8% YTD
  4. Basic Material Stocks (XLB) -0.7% to +3.9% YTD
  5. Healthcare Stocks (XLV) +0.1% to +21.5%% YTD

 

In other words, in stark contrast to the Dollar Up, Rates Up #Quad1 signal we gave you to be long of everything big beta US growth in 2013, this Dollar Up (going to cash), Down Rates, #Deflation move is nasty for most things that lose their pricing power.

 

Healthcare (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) are two of the sectors that don’t get decimated by #deflation as fast as a levered-long-crude-oil-hedgie-dude (or an upstream E&P MLP dude who depends on the “dividend” that is decided by the price of the other dude’s oil inflation expectations).

 

I know, #dude!

 

That’s why the objective investor who has been writing down the sector returns for the SP500 in 2014 has noted the following RELATIVE YTD performance:

 

  1. Healthcare (XLV) +12.3% YTD
  2. Utilities (XLU) +11.4% YTD
  3. Technology (XLK) +4.7% YTD

Vs.

  1. Basic Materials (XLB) -5.2% YTD
  2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -7.3% YTD
  3. Energy (XLE) -12.0% YTD

 

Yep, if all you did was express either our early-cycle slowdown calls for #ConsumerSlowing and #HousingSlowdown from the beginning of the year and/or our #Quad4 deflation call, in your S&P Sector asset allocations, you’ve crushed it.

 

If all that mattered to the American Consumer was “gas prices” (it actually represents only 6.4% of the median consumer’s budget) all of these rosy “surveys” you’ve been reading would have been right. Instead, in relative and sector performance terms, those narrative fallacies got you killed.

 

But, but, the ISM number was great yesterday. Yep, just great, another survey!

 

In other news, Industrials (XLI) closed down on the day on that ISM manufacturing report. I wonder if that’s because the non-survey data (US Retail Sales, Consumer Spending, Durable Goods, Construction Spending, and New Home Sales), all recently SLOWED, in actual rate of change terms!

 

Moving along…

 

If only everyone who writes in this business was forced to actually write this stuff down, every single day, consensus might be as concerned about the big beta #bubble in levered-long-and-illiquid US equity inflation expectations as I am.

 

But what is your catalyst, Keith?

 

  1. What I have been writing to you all year is already happening
  2. What I have seen (on the mid-October Russell and Bond Yield Lows) has not been forgotten
  3. What is most probable to happen next is more of the same

 

If everything that was in #crash mode on October 13-14th were to crash, literally, tomorrow… I’d write it down too – and “it” would be something that should not come as a surprise to anyone.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.21-2.37%

SPX 1

RUT 1086-1181

Italy’s MIB Index 189

Yen 109.27-113.66

WTI Oil 76.41-80.94

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Write It Down - 11.04.14 Chart


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – November 4, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 66 points or 2.52% downside to 1967 and 0.75% upside to 2033.                                                 

                                                                              

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.83
  • VIX closed at 14.73 1 day percent change of 4.99%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Sept., est. -$40.2b (prior -$40.1b)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Oct. est. 62 (prior 63.7)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Sept., est. -0.6% (prior -10.1%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Nov., est. 46.5 (prior 45.2)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4W bills
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Election Day:
    • GOP chance of Senate control: NYT: 70%; FiveThirtyEight: 74%; Washington Post: “near certainty"; 96%
    • President Obama attends meetings at White House
    • Senate, House out of session
    • Sec. of State John Kerry travels to Paris to meet with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius
    • 8:30am: U.S. Census Bureau releases monthly export data, including figures for oil
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Senate Outlook, Latest Polls, Gaffes

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Republicans Have Edge in Vote With Senate Too Close to Call
  • EU Cuts Euro-Area Growth Outlook for 2014, 2015
  • JPMorgan Faces U.S. Criminal Probe Into Currency Trading
  • Blackstone Is Said Near $8b Deal to Sell IndCor Unit
  • AIG Profit Climbs to $2.19b in Hancock’s First Report
  • MetLife’s Kandarian Said to Attend FSOC Hearing on SIFI Vote
  • Scotiabank Cuts Jobs, Branches; Takes C$451m Pretax Charge
  • Stryker to Pay More Than $1b for Recalled Hip Devices
  • Disney Broadens Movie-Sharing Application to Android Users
  • Sprint Cutting 2k Jobs as More Subscribers Cancel Service
  • Herbalife Policy Changes Hurt Sales After Ackman Criticism
  • Phoenix Voters Consider Abandoning Public Pension Promise
  • Macau Casino Revenue Plunges Record 23% as Austerity Bites
  • Capital One Subpoened by NY DA’s Office in Auto-Loan Probe
  • Ignition Switch Unrepaired on Millions of GM Cars: NYT
  • San Francisco Gave Airbnb Hometown Advantage, HomeAway Says
  • Saudis Cut Oil Prices to U.S. in December Amid Shale Boom
  • GPIF’s Strategy Shift Means Adding $187b to Stocks

 

AM EARNS:

    • AerCap (AER) 6:58am, $1.18
    • AK Steel (AKS) 8:30am, $0.09 - Preview
    • Alibaba (BABA) 7am, $2.74
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) 7am, $0.73
    • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) 8am, $0.08
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) 8:05am, $0.38
    • Becton Dickinson (BDX) 6am, $1.66
    • Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) 7am, $0.08
    • Burger King (BKW) 7am, $0.27
    • Cobalt Intl Energy (CIE) 7am, ($0.17)
    • CVS Health (CVS) 7am, $1.13 - Preview
    • DiamondRock (DRH) 8am, $0.10
    • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.43 - Preview
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6:04am, $0.39 - Preview
    • Emerson Electric (EMR) 6:49am, $1.23 - Preview
    • Entergy (ETR) 7am, $1.68
    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.55 - Preview
    • Expeditors Intl (EXPD) 9am, $0.49
    • FirstEnergy (FE) 8:30am, $0.88
    • HMS (HMSY) 6am, $0.14
    • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 7:30am, $2.01
    • International Flavors (IFF) 7am, $1.32
    • International Paper (IP) 7am, $0.88
    • KBR (KBR) 7am, $0.23
    • Linn Energy (LINE) 6:45am, $0.41
    • LinnCo (LNCO) 6:45am, $0.60
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.89 - Preview
    • Monster Worldwide (MWW) 7:30am, $0.03
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) 7am, $0.41
    • Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) 6am, ($0.34)
    • Och-Ziff Capital (OZM) 7:30am, $0.19
    • Office Depot (ODP) 7am, $0.09
    • PPL (PPL) 6:58am, $0.52
    • Priceline (PCLN) 7am, $21.08 - Preview
    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) 6:30am, $2.57 - Preview
    • Sempra Energy (SRE) 9am, $1.24
    • Targa Resources (TRGP) 7:17am, $0.69
    • TransCanada (TRP CN) 8:30am, C$0.62 - Preview
    • Valero Energy (VLO) 7:46am, $1.57
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) 8am, $0.52
    • Western Refining (WNR) 6:01am, $1.47
    • Westlake Chemical (WLK) 6:30am, $1.57
    • WP Carey (WPC) 7:30am, $0.54
    • Zoetis (ZTS) 7am, $0.37

 

PM EARNS:

    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:07pm, $0.13
    • Amdocs (DOX) 4:01pm, $0.79
    • Cimarex Energy (XEC) 4:20pm, $1.51
    • Devon Energy (DVN) Aft-mkt, $1.23 - Preview
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) 4:04pm, $0.62
    • EOG Resources (EOG) 5:05pm, $1.30 - Preview
    • FireEye (FEYE) 4:03pm, ($0.56)
    • HomeAway (AWAY) 4pm, $0.15
    • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) 4:01pm, ($0.32)
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) 4:15pm, $0.63
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) 4:05pm, $2.23 - Preview
    • KAR Auction Services (KAR) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) Aft-mkt, $0.21
    • Liberty Media (LMCA) Aft-mkt, $0.35
    • Linamar (LNR CN) 4pm, C$0.93
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.25
    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) 6:08pm, $0.72
    • Oneok (OKE) 4:10pm, $0.39
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 6:18pm, C$0.29
    • Pharmacyclics (PCYC) 4:04pm, $0.33
    • PHH (PHH) 4:05pm, ($0.27)
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) 4:09pm, $1.26 - Preview
    • RenaissanceRe (RNR) 4:15pm, $2.28
    • Russel Metals (RUS CN) 5pm, C$0.53
    • Sanchez Energy (SN) 4:15pm, $0.20
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4:02pm, $0.00
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) 4:09pm, $0.60
    • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) 4:05pm, $0.36 - Preview
    • WPX Energy (WPX) 4:05pm, ($0.01)
    • Zulily (ZU) 4:05pm, ($0.04)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • U.S. Oil Falls to 3-Year Low on Saudi Price Cut as Supply Gains
  • How Blue Skies for Obama in Beijing Help to Cut Iron Ore Prices
  • Gold Rises for First Time in 5 Days as EU Cuts Growth Estimates
  • Saudi Oil Market Fight Shifting to U.S. as Asia Prices Increased
  • Changing Global Silver Fix Was Just the Beginning: Commodities
  • Glencore Increases Third-Quarter Coal Output as Price Slumps
  • Halliburton CEO Expects Shale to Reverse Decline in Oil: Energy
  • Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down
  • Rubber Falls From 10-Week High as Oil Price Drop Cuts Appeal
  • Zinc Heads for Three-Week High as U.S. Auto Sales Beat Estimates
  • Rebar Advances as Output Cuts During APEC Seen Reducing Supply
  • Perth Mint October Gold Coin, Minted Bar Sales Drop From Sept.
  • Pacific Shippers Say Dock Crews Slow Down in Seattle, Tacoma
  • BullionVault’s Gauge of Client Buying Falls From 7-Month High

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

next