THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 30, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 136 points or 5.61% downside to 1871 and 1.25% upside to 2007.                                              

                                                                                 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.82 from 1.84
  • VIX closed at 15.15 1 day percent change of 5.28%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Oct. 25, est. 285k (prior 283k)
  • Continuing claims, Oct. 18, est. 2.352m (prior 2.351m)
  • 8:30am: GDP, 3Q, est. 3% (prior 4.6%)
  • 9am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Oct. 26 (prior 37.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7Y notes
  • 3pm: Puerto Rico Govt. Devel. Bank webcast for bondholders

 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate, House out of session
    • Ideas Forum speakers include Sec. of State John Kerry, Anthony Fauci, director of Natl Inst. for Allergy and Infectious Disease; Senate Ag. Cmte Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow;  U.S. Trade Rep. Mike Froman
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: GOP Path to Victory Not So Easy; Ad Money

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • ValueAct’s Ubben Sees Agrium’s Retail Unit as ‘Stable Jewel’
  • Container Store Targeted by Apex Capital’s Colen Urging Growth
  • American Realty Says Accounting Error Was Intentionally Hidden
  • Standard Chartered, Mitsubishi UFJ Said to Face Fresh Inquiries
  • Citigroup Said to Seek Initial Offers for OneMain by Nov. 20
  • Barclays Profit Jumps, Sets Aside $799 Million FX Provision
  • Visa Profit Surpasses Estimates as Consumer Card Spending Rises
  • Suncor 3Q Operating EPS Tops Est., Total Production Below Est.
  • Fifth Street Raises $102 Million in Reduced Initial Offering
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls as Economy Weathers Woes
  • Samsung Has Smallest Profit Since 2011 as Smartphones Stall
  • Obama Says Attempts to Seal U.S. Futile in Battle Against Ebola

 

AM EARNS:

    • Air Products (APD) 6am, $1.61
    • Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) 7am, ($0.71) - Preview
    • AltaGas (ALA CN) 7:45am, $0.19
    • Altria (MO) 6:58am, $0.68 - Preview
    • American Tower (AMT) 7am, $0.56 - Preview
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 7am, $1.05 - Preview
    • Avon Products (AVP) 7:01am, $0.16 - Preview
    • Ball (BLL) 6am, $1.06
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 7:30am, C$0.74
    • BGC Partners (BGCP) 8am, $0.16
    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) 6am, $0.10 - Preview
    • BorgWarner (BWA) 8am, $0.79
    • Bunge (BG) 6:30am, $1.90
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7am, $0.96
    • Catamaran (CCT CN) 6am, C$0.56 - Preview
    • Cigna (CI) 6am, $1.83
    • CME (CME) 7am, $0.82
    • CNH Industrial (CNHI) 9:30am, $0.13
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) 7am, $1.21 - Preview
    • CVR Energy (CVI) 8:30am, $0.62 - Preview
    • Diebold (DBD) 8:16am, $0.50
    • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7:15am, ($0.53)
    • Enterprise Products (EPD) 6am, $0.37
    • Fidelity National Information (FIS) 7am, $0.79
    • Fortress Investment (FIG) 7:09am, $0.16
    • GNC (GNC) 8am, $0.74
    • Goldcorp (G CN) 8am, $0.18 - Preview
    • GrafTech Intl (GTI) 8:56am, ($0.04)
    • Greenbrier (GBX) 6am, $1.03
    • Harman Intl (HAR) 8am, $1.11
    • Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) 6am, $0.09
    • Incyte (INCY) 7am, $0.07 - Preview
    • Invesco (IVZ) 7:30am, $0.62
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) 6am, $0.40
    • ITC (ITC) 8:30am, $0.47
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) 7am, $1.01
    • Kellogg (K) 8am, $0.92 - Preview
    • L-3 Communications (LLL) 7am, $1.84
    • Lincoln Electric (LECO) 7am, $0.90
    • LKQ (LKQ) 7am, $0.32
    • Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN) 7:30am, (C$0.03)
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) 7am, $2.29 - Preview
    • MasterCard (MA) 8am, $0.78 - Preview
    • MGM Resorts Intl (MGM) 8am, $0.06
    • Mosaic (MOS) 7am, $0.58 - Preview
    • MSCI (MSCI) 7:30am, $0.49
    • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7am, $1.54
    • New Gold (NGD CN) 7:30am, $0.02 - Preview
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30am, $0.00
    • NiSource (NI) 6:30am, $0.16
    • Ocwen Financial (OCN) 7:30am, $0.60 - Preview
    • Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) 7am, $0.87
    • PBF Energy (PBF) 6:30am, $1.04
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) 7am, $0.46
    • Public Service Enterprise (PEG) 7:30am, $0.74
    • Radian (RDN) 7am, $0.32
    • Scana (SCG) 7:30am, $0.96
    • Starz (STRZA) 7:30am, $0.51
    • Taser Intl (TASR) 7:30am, $0.11
    • Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) 7am, $1.24 - Preview
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7am, $0.45
    • Time Warner Cable (TWC) 6am, $1.90
    • TransAlta (TA CN) 7:30am, C$0.07
    • Ultra Petroleum (UPL) 8am, $0.51
    • Vantiv (VNTV) 7am, $0.49
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 6am, $0.76

 

PM EARNS:

    • Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR) 4:15pm, ($0.15)
    • AlonA Energy (ALJ) 5:03pm, $0.59
    • Bally Technologies (BYI) 4:01pm, $1.17
    • Bell Aliant (BA CN) Post-Mkt, C$0.42
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • Canadian Oil Sands (COS CN) 4:51pm, C$0.42
    • Constellation Software (CSU CN) 5pm, $3.16
    • Crown Castle (CCI) 4:02pm, $0.27
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) 5:15pm, $1.80
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 5:41pm, $0.06 - Preview
    • Energen (EGN) 4:30pm, $0.46
    • Expedia (EXPE) 4:09pm, $1.74 - Preview
    • Fairfax Financial (FFH CN) 5pm, $14.04
    • First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) 5pm, $0.25 - Preview
    • FleetCor Technologies (FLT) 4:01pm, $1.33
    • Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $1.10
    • GoPro (GPRO) 4:05pm, $0.08
    • Groupon (GRPN) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • Investors Bancorp (ISBC) 5pm, $0.10
    • LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:05pm, $0.47
    • Live Nation (LYV) 4:09pm, $0.36
    • MasTec (MTZ) 4:30pm, $0.55
    • MB Financial (MBFI) Post-Mkt, $0.44
    • MercadoLibre (MELI) 4:04pm, $0.66
    • Microchip Technology (MCHP) 4:15pm, $0.67
    • Mohawk Industries (MHK) 4:01pm, $2.42
    • Mylan (MYL) 4pm, $1.14
    • Newmont Mining (NEM) Post-Mkt, $0.16 - Preview
    • ON Semiconductor (ONNN) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05pm, $0.57
    • Republic Services (RSG) 4:05pm, $0.53
    • Scientific Games (SGMS) 4:08pm, ($0.39)
    • Seattle Genetics (SGEN) 4:05pm, ($0.24)
    • Sirius XM Canada (XSR CN) 4:05pm, C$0.05
    • Spansion (CODE) 4:04pm, $0.27
    • Standard Pacific (SPF) 4:02pm, $0.15
    • Starbucks (SBUX) 4:05pm, $0.74 - Preview
    • Tempur Sealy Intl (TPX) 4:05pm, $0.89
    • Tesoro (TSO) 5pm, $2.16 - Preview
    • Theravance (THRX) 4:08pm, ($0.13)
    • Trimble Navigation (TRMB) 4:05pm, $0.38
    • Western Union (WU) 4:01pm, $0.38

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • China Said to Probe September Surge in Precious Metals Exports
  • Metals Investors Seeing Slowdown Head for ETP Exit: Commodities
  • WTI Falls From One-Week High on Fed Stimulus Halt, U.S. Supply
  • Gold Equals 15 Barrels of Oil in Sign Inflation Wagers Too High
  • Oil Stocks Lure Most Bearish Bets Since ’07 After Slump: Options
  • Diamond Dealers Using Web Bring Light to $18 Billion Gem Trade
  • U.S. Light-Crude Production Spurs Export Debate, Official Says
  • Raw Sugar Drops as Oversupply Caps Prices; Arabica Coffee Gains
  • Gold Slides to Three-Week Low as Dollar Strengthens After Fed
  • Trafigura Seeks to Handle More Copper Ore Amid Arsenic Hurdles
  • Bauxite Supplies From Africa Seen Showing Resilience Amid Ebola
  • Copper Drops From Five-Week High as Fed Decision Boosts Dollar
  • China State Reserves May Buy Copper in Bonded Zones: Citigroup
  • How Oil’s 29% Drop Took Investors by Surprise on OPEC Price War

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more